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Message
So what is your next play?
Posted on 12/14/22 at 11:46 pm
Posted on 12/14/22 at 11:46 pm
CPI still over 7%.
Fed still raising rates and will be for a while.
Powell talked hawkish but acted dovish.
Earnings for the next few quarters will be down.
Prices are still going up on the important things like food, housing and goods / services.
Not quite sure if the government has got a handle of spending money they don't have yet.
I'm DCA my 401k contributions into my Roth. But, sitting on large amt of cash as I think we still going to see prices get lower over the next quarter at least.
Fed still raising rates and will be for a while.
Powell talked hawkish but acted dovish.
Earnings for the next few quarters will be down.
Prices are still going up on the important things like food, housing and goods / services.
Not quite sure if the government has got a handle of spending money they don't have yet.
I'm DCA my 401k contributions into my Roth. But, sitting on large amt of cash as I think we still going to see prices get lower over the next quarter at least.
12
Posted on 12/15/22 at 5:26 am to oneg8rh8r
I'm sitting only on about 20% cash but bought a lot of stocks around sept, oct. May set a few stops to bank some gains especially the growth stocks probably keep the Div stocks i bought and add to them if we get a nice dip. Get to add to my Roth IRA Account on Jan 1. Other than that not buying at these levels.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:03 am to oneg8rh8r
2023 - More Bitcoin and international real estate as a hedge against USD. Enough in my SEP for the tax benefits as well but no real confidence.
2024 - Big arse farm somewhere in South America where I will grow my own food, livestock and raise a family.
2024 - Big arse farm somewhere in South America where I will grow my own food, livestock and raise a family.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 6:52 am to oneg8rh8r
Get a new job to account for inflation since raises are shite
Posted on 12/15/22 at 7:42 am to oneg8rh8r
My next play. I went out to March and April and did some put spreads on SPY. I did a directional butterfly also. These will pay off if the S&P trades at or below the 3600 level. Basically a hedge if we go down.
This post was edited on 12/15/22 at 7:49 am
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:09 am to wileyjones
quote:
Get a new job to account for inflation since raises are shite
Ironic, the fed is specifically trying to make it harder for you to get a new job because your wage gains have been out of control.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:13 am to oneg8rh8r
If we tell, it's not our play anymore; it's yours.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:16 am to oneg8rh8r
Sell 2yr into 30yr payer swaption, K = 4.00% SOFR @ 305bp (108nv)
Buy 10yr into 30yr payer swaption, K = 4.00% SOFR @ 480bp (73nv)
Net pay 175bps
Buy 10yr into 30yr payer swaption, K = 4.00% SOFR @ 480bp (73nv)
Net pay 175bps
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:17 am to oneg8rh8r
Short GME to below $10
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:26 am to BestBanker
I've heard of some people's plans on MT....I'm good! 
I am and have been a big fan of leveraged ETF's of what I deem value stocks. I will start to push money back into SOXL, UPRO, TQQQ, COST and simply wait.
I hold a large amount of SAVA, could and should pay off amazingly well in the next couple of years, but understand it could cost me dearly.
I am and have been a big fan of leveraged ETF's of what I deem value stocks. I will start to push money back into SOXL, UPRO, TQQQ, COST and simply wait.
I hold a large amount of SAVA, could and should pay off amazingly well in the next couple of years, but understand it could cost me dearly.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:38 am to Pendulum
quote:
harder for you to get a new job
There's quite literally millions of job openings right now.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:45 am to oneg8rh8r
I've got my eye on the following:
- AMZN under $80
- TSLA under $140
- More ETSY under $110
- More DIS under $90
- More SLI under ~ $3.25
Someone started a thread recently on Dutch Bros Coffee (BROS). I started researching and it definitely sounds interesting. They're growth plans are very aggressive. It seems a bit expensive for me right now above $30, but I'll start paying attention much more closely if it heads toward the $25 range.
- AMZN under $80
- TSLA under $140
- More ETSY under $110
- More DIS under $90
- More SLI under ~ $3.25
Someone started a thread recently on Dutch Bros Coffee (BROS). I started researching and it definitely sounds interesting. They're growth plans are very aggressive. It seems a bit expensive for me right now above $30, but I'll start paying attention much more closely if it heads toward the $25 range.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:47 am to oneg8rh8r
Tough to get excited until the fed starts adding liquidity etc again. Great time to chill, take a vacation and not overtrade.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:49 am to skewbs
quote:
TSLA under $140
You'll have your chance soon. Another good trending short.
Let's see it down to $130.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:54 am to JLivermore
I don't think there is a pivot (decreasing in rates) for a couple of years. They may stop raising rates sometime next summer, but I don't see a drop until 2024 at the earliest.
PPI and CPI are going to continue to be high for a while, rates be damned.
PPI and CPI are going to continue to be high for a while, rates be damned.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:59 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
don't think there is a pivot (decreasing in rates) for a couple of years
Even after yesterday's FOMC statement, the market still is not fully believing the Fed's intentions to not cut rates until 2024. Based on Fed fund futures, the expectation is a rate cut will happen in Nov 2023.
If that occurs, the economy is likely fricked and needs help at that point.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:14 am to skewbs
quote:
I've got my eye on the following:
- AMZN under $80
- TSLA under $140
- More ETSY under $110
- More DIS under $90
- More SLI under ~ $3.25
I recently dipped into more AMZN.
And I am no going to grab more DIS today.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:17 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
Earnings for the next few quarters will be down.
Prices are still going up on the important things like food, housing and goods / services.
I'm no financial guru, but we've been hearing this for months upon months and still nothing.
Im holding course, continuing my normal investments and living life
Posted on 12/15/22 at 9:30 am to Lsut81
Just because things are going up doesn't necessarily mean profits are up. If raw materials cost goes up, prices will increase with no increase in bottom line.
Rents are still climbing and will come down at some point but that is a lagging effect.
Fertilizer is up so foods, plants, meats are all up.
Rents are still climbing and will come down at some point but that is a lagging effect.
Fertilizer is up so foods, plants, meats are all up.
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