re: So, the National Debt is just a joke at this point..

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It is a prayer (not a policy), but AI could lead to the productivity growth needed to deflate goods and essentially grow our way out of debt. There is an obvious question if this is possible. And if it is possible, how soon could we see the productivity boon?

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There are a lot of places where AI helps, but it's not yet even close to the scope and scale people fear or anticipate. But then, that's generally what we see with tech: a lot of hype at the onset and even with wide acceptance we get only small, incremental changes in society (see: Segue, VR, EVs). Even for true game-changers (like the internet's impact on commerce), it usually takes years longer than the initial hype indicates (remember, the internet has been around since the early/mid-90s but it wasn't until the mid-2000s that we saw online transactions starting to move enough to garner notice, but it wasn't until COVID that online sales really began hitting their stride).

I think that's where we are with AI. Don't get me wrong, the impact on categories like CSRs, low-level coders and even some clerical position has been impressive, but it hasn't hit its stride yet. To compare it to internet sales, this would be the early 2000s. That said, the pace it's moved has been far faster than internet sales (I haven't looked at the information yet, but I would imagine it's on par with the adoption of ICE vehicles once Ford began mass producing them or TVs in American households, and those changed society in a relatively short amount of time).

The real impact, at least the way I see it, will be when AI can be paired with robotics to the point where it can produce goods from end-to-end (harvesting the basic resources to transporting the finale product to stores). The largest single cost for businesses is usually labor. When that cost is cut down to nearly nothing, how much of those savings will be passed on to the consumer?

Buuuuuut... that's a double-edged sword (and a totally different topic).

So to answer your question, maybe 5-10 years before it's at the same point where the Cyber Monday metric started gaining prominence in Christmas sales?

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Rating agencies will be the first outward sign that were in trouble.

Sometimes I wish one of them would take a shot at a downgrade to throw cold water on the spending.

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They have ..... they downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+ in 2011;

Fitch downgraded it from AAA to AA+ in 2023; and Moody's downgraded it in 2025 ..... citing unsustainable debt levels and rising interest costs.

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40 trillion is a mind boggling number. We need a real DOGE effort. One that tackles the real issues causing this amount of debt.

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Interest, entitlements, defense. That's it. Everything else is a drop in the bucket. The generational ponzi schemes of FDR and Johnson were destined to blow up the system as soon as boomers entered retirement.

True interest expense as defined by Groman, interest and interest like obligations (entitlements + VA) are now 105% of tax receipts. So 5% of true interest expense plus the $1T military and everything else they spend money goes on the credit card.

Govt health care obligations are akin to debt denominated in a foreign currency that is increasing in value. They can't print artificial knees, hips, MRIs or ct scans. The math is permanently broken.

Do you hear that? That is the bond market saying "you, personally and collectively, are fricked."

Bard, your avatar is gnarly. Woof

Re: entitlements, here's a depressing exercise for anyone interested. Figure out the rough math on your social security schedule. When did you start paying in? Aprox how much per month, per year etc...

Now have gemini or claude or whatever plug that into the S&P. Double woof

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Interest, entitlements, defense. 

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Ridiculous contracts to political buddies belongs in this group. $1000 hammers and gold toilets add up. Pork bellies getting added to non-related legislation is also adding significant numbers.