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Started By
Message
Posted on 8/4/11 at 5:07 pm to kfizzle85
I have a hunch tomorrow's jobs report is going to stink to high heaven. Granted, some of that is priced into today's debacle, but I think another 2% drop tomorrow is a good bet.
Hope I'm wrong.
Hope I'm wrong.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 5:22 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
Based on what? What are you expecting that would qualify as stinking to high heaven?
Posted on 8/4/11 at 5:44 pm to kfizzle85
I talked to my neighbor and he said expect the dow to drop again tomorrow
Posted on 8/4/11 at 5:48 pm to kfizzle85
Based on the action in Treasuries, I'm expecting a weak jobs report. I think some of the rise in Treasury prices is in anticipation of a weak report.
But I could be completely wrong.
But I could be completely wrong.
This post was edited on 8/4/11 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 8/4/11 at 5:58 pm to LSURussian
quote:
good time to go "all in" because today scared the shite out of me.....
I had my finger on the button, but had two thoughts:
1. This is nuts, this thing will collapse if the Euro banking system falls apart.
2. Why go long the S&P, when it looks like gold is about to pull back and you can go long it and make easy money.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 7:13 pm to LSU0358
Thought the stock market had a down day, check out treasuries.
3 Month 0.01% 0.00 (0.00%)
6 Month 0.00% -0.02 (-100.00%)
2 Year 0.25% -0.07 (-21.88%)
5 Year 1.09% -0.13 (-10.66%)
10 Year 2.40% -0.17 (-6.61%)
30 Year 3.67% -0.17 (-4.43%)
3 Month 0.01% 0.00 (0.00%)
6 Month 0.00% -0.02 (-100.00%)
2 Year 0.25% -0.07 (-21.88%)
5 Year 1.09% -0.13 (-10.66%)
10 Year 2.40% -0.17 (-6.61%)
30 Year 3.67% -0.17 (-4.43%)
Posted on 8/4/11 at 7:34 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
I really see absolutely no reason why it would continue to fall tomorrow, especially at this clip, other than purely momentum. Even if the unemployment numbers come in terrible, people are pre-conditioned to that now. I'm not saying it won't go down, I just don't see a basis of reasoning for it in the short term, so I wonder why people now have this feeling. Why do you think it will be down tomorrow?
I believe the chartists would tell you that since SPX has blown through the 1240 support level the next level is 1150. Then again, I am not a chartist/technician, but I certainly can see a 200DMA point being crushed.
Until this global over-indebtedness, massive unemployment, austerity measures effect on GDP and what I would assume is fabrication of many data points out of Europe regarding the ability of the PIIGS to service debt and its factor on European banks then this decline will continue. How about those farcical European bank stress test results? Glad I reduced equity exposure by a huge percentage months ago. This shite is going to take years to work through. I could throw in a "it is what it is" but why bother.
Maybe the politard clowns will wake up and recognize the severity of the challenge of deficit spending/over-indebtedness in a probable anemic GDP environment. I had to say this knowing you hate involving politics in financial forums.
This Tuesday I looked at some TIPS bought back in February and they were up > 27% YTD, that alone says something is extremely F'd.
Maybe the country needs one of these:
The PC Decrapifier
When is the Euro coming down from its perch in La La land?
Posted on 8/4/11 at 7:55 pm to tirebiter
Hypothetically: I am 5% less wealthy than I was this morning.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 7:56 pm to C
You must have been looking at yield, the 2-Yr through 30-yr went up in value. Inverse relation.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 7:57 pm to tirebiter
I just don't see how all of that isn't completely baked in (aside from the chart stuff which I know nothing about) and why all of a sudden it would start having a massive and persistent impact on US markets. Unless of course JT's Kudlow tweet is true and we're getting an Italian bailout out of nowhere tomorrow. That would be understandable.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 8:04 pm to tirebiter
quote:
You must have been looking at yield, the 2-Yr through 30-yr went up in value. Inverse relation.
yes.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 9:03 pm to C
BP's forward P/E is 5.45 now. Wow
This post was edited on 8/4/11 at 9:04 pm
Posted on 8/4/11 at 9:30 pm to LSUtoOmaha
RIMM is 4 something. jump on that...
Posted on 8/5/11 at 8:07 am to LSUtoOmaha
Good jobs report. Glad I was wrong. 
Posted on 8/5/11 at 8:13 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
Good jobs report. Glad I was wrong.
In the good old days, this report would have been called "weak." Everything is relative, sort of like the women all get better looking when the bar is closing......
Posted on 8/5/11 at 8:56 am to LSURussian
Maybe I was half right. That was the shortest rally ever.
Posted on 8/5/11 at 9:08 am to kfizzle85
quote:
I just don't see how all of that isn't completely baked in (aside from the chart stuff which I know nothing about) and why all of a sudden it would start having a massive and persistent impact on US markets. Unless of course JT's Kudlow tweet is true and we're getting an Italian bailout out of nowhere tomorrow. That would be understandable.
The squabbling between Berlusconi and the finance minister the past few weeks may lead one to believe the scenario is indeed worse than what has been portrayed, 120 D/GDP isn't going away soon. I gave up on the EMH years ago, news and rumors travel too fast these days.
On the upside, yields on Europe targeted ETFs are looking pretty fat.
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