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re: Signs we may be nearing a bottom
Posted on 5/19/22 at 5:06 pm to slackster
Posted on 5/19/22 at 5:06 pm to slackster
Exactly what has changed to make you think we are near the bottom?
Gas is higher. Food is higher. People are loading up their credit cards. I would say we are not even to halftime yet.
Gas is higher. Food is higher. People are loading up their credit cards. I would say we are not even to halftime yet.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 6:39 pm to sawtooth
quote:
Exactly what has changed to make you think we are near the bottom?
Gas is higher. Food is higher. People are loading up their credit cards. I would say we are not even to halftime yet.
Bottoms tend to happen well before things start looking better. The facts you mentioned are not lost on me or others, but waiting on things to turn around on Main Street is a poor investment strategy.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 7:15 pm to slackster
Sure. Ok.
No one has any idea of how low this thing will go.
See you in a few months.
No one has any idea of how low this thing will go.
See you in a few months.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 7:52 pm to sawtooth
quote:
No one has any idea of how low this thing will go.
Agreed. You and I included.
quote:
See you in a few months.
I look forward to you telling us when you get back in. You weren’t around here to tell us when you got out.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 8:43 pm to slackster
quote:
Signs we may be nearing a bottom
there wont be a bottom until potato is replaced with a republican in 2024
until then its just one crash after another with fake ralleys inbetween to tease you
Posted on 5/19/22 at 8:44 pm to keakar
Go back to the PTB.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 8:59 pm to slackster
quote:the shitstorm coming is not your normal ‘tend to’ type of event. I’d rather have the confidence to ride it out like I did ‘08 bloodbath and the covid baby crash but fk that. The headwinds coming are more like a hurricane in my opinion. I miss the bottom by 10% so be it.
Bottoms tend to happen well before things start looking better. The facts you mentioned are not lost on me or others, but waiting on things to turn around on Main Street is a poor investment strategy
Posted on 5/19/22 at 9:36 pm to DTRooster
quote:
the shitstorm coming is not your normal ‘tend to’ type of event.
To be fair, none of them are, yet they all are.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 7:08 am to bod312
quote:
definitely don't know when we will bottom or how close we currently are to the bottom.
Same, no one does. It's extremely complicated to forecast when or where a bottom would occur. It's always a hindsight observation.
quote:
do know whenever we do hit the bottom most people will still think we have more to drop.
Agree, there will definitely be traders shorting at the bottom.
For investors with cash on the sideline, it's prudent to wait for a stabilization or a clearer trend reversal on a long timeframe. That picture can take months to be sure it's not a bear market rally.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 7:16 am to Chad504boy
quote:
no way, the long term implications of inflation, interest rates and oil prices have barely begun.
The market knows these risks and is forward looking. It's really the unforeseen negative events that will push the market further down past where I expect.
Other than that unforeseen event, the economy is still strong and I'm not going to bet against the American consumer for long.
The market has been selling off all year. Everyone calling for a crash right now is late to the party.
The major index valuations are beginning to come inline with future growth expectations.
S&P 500 forward p/e is at 17.5 currently for 2022 estimates. It's 16 based on 2023 estimates. If it drops further to 15, that is a good point to start loading up confidently as that is a long-term historical average.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 7:28 am to DTRooster
quote:
the shitstorm coming is not your normal ‘tend to’ type of event. I’d rather have the confidence to ride it out like I did ‘08 bloodbath and the covid baby crash but fk that. The headwinds coming are more like a hurricane in my opinion. I miss the bottom by 10% so be it.
The board is full on deniers, the writing is on the wall. They did the same thing when I nailed inflation. I told them about this week too, they could have cleaned up but refused to listen.
No sympathy
Posted on 5/20/22 at 7:28 am to JimMorrison
What would the S&P be at with a PE of 15? Thanks
Posted on 5/20/22 at 7:31 am to Realityintheface
quote:
What would the S&P be at with a PE of 15? Thanks
2022E = 3,366
2023E = 3,721
Posted on 5/20/22 at 7:41 am to JimMorrison
Thanks. I don’t understand the answer you gave.
If the S&P continues to fall in the next few weeks/months, what do you consider a good entry point in line with the historical average of 15?
If the S&P continues to fall in the next few weeks/months, what do you consider a good entry point in line with the historical average of 15?
Posted on 5/20/22 at 7:42 am to JimMorrison
quote:
If it drops further to 15, that is a good point to start loading up confidently as that is a long-term historical average.
What number is this, is what I’m asking. Thank
Posted on 5/20/22 at 7:56 am to slackster
Just keep making random predictions. Eventually you will be right.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 8:27 am to Realityintheface
quote:
the S&P continues to fall in the next few weeks/months, what do you consider a good entry point in line with the historical average of 15?
Based on current 2023 earnings estimates, S&P would be $3,721. Roughly 6% down from here.
If it gets to that level, it will be a good idea to evaluate the situation (economic data, what's in the news cycle, etc) and have patience before entering long.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 8:55 am to Strannix
quote:
I told them about this week too, they could have cleaned up but refused to listen.
S&P500 down 1.8% since Monday’s open.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:05 am to DaTruth7
quote:
Just keep making random predictions. Eventually you will be right.
If you invest in the QQQ, SPY, etc, right now, you will make money. It’s that simple.
Only a fool thinks he/she can time it, and this board is full of fools that like to tell us what they did 3 months after it happened. It’s mostly horseshite. No one around here was 25%+ cash up until the market was down 15%, then you all magically appeared saying you went to cash before things fell.
These same people will be telling us they got back in at the bottom 3 months after it happens. It never fails.
This post was edited on 5/20/22 at 9:07 am
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:14 am to slackster
No different than the business media.
The fact that the sentiment, both on Main Street and now many fund Managers has become so negative..
I’ll play that as a contrarian entry point, move onto other more important things in life and come back in a couple months.
The fact that the sentiment, both on Main Street and now many fund Managers has become so negative..
I’ll play that as a contrarian entry point, move onto other more important things in life and come back in a couple months.
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