re: Signs we may be nearing a bottom

When in doubt, go with answer “C”.

Hardly. But I wouldn’t expect people to read the thread.

How is it timing the market when you have record inflation and they are telling you they raising interest rates? That's almost economics 101 for what is coming for the market. Especially after we just printed a shite ton of money to prop it up.

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How is it timing the market when you have record inflation and they are telling you they raising interest rates?

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Are you keeping your new stack of money in cash? Or in bonds?

In an inflationary environment, if you are out of equities (not trying to "time it", wink wink, just being "smart"), then your money is:

1. Chasing bond or other low interest yields, or

2. Sitting in a cash account, deflating

Unless you have some other magical third option, you're going to have to beat inflation (8%), just to stay even. I'm not saying you have to be in equities to do that (although that will do it, year over year, going back to 1957), but you tell me. You seem to have the answers.

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didn’t play the market then. I just bought and held. You know the Fed is going to raise rates. You know it’s going to cause a recession. There is nothing positive going on in the economy right now. Even a fool like me could see the writing on the wall. I took out 60% in March to hold on the sidelines. I kept 40% in energy because of all the sanctions that was being thrown around at Russia. I will absolutely get back in when I think we hit bottom. I’m sure I won’t be spot on but I will be close enough to not lose +(10%) of my value. It could be months.

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Look at this guy. Perfect example.

Just rode the indexes from 2016-2021, but he magically became 40% in energy stocks this year, and went to 60% cash in March.

I call bullshite. Even a 60/40 SPY/XLE portfolio from 1/1/16 to 4/30/22 would have underperformed a 100% SPY portfolio by 10% cumulatively, and that’s including selling 60% SPY in March.

I’ve got about 5% of my clients who are up on the year, and every single one of them was down in 2020 when the market made 18%.

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I’ve got about 5% of my clients who are up on the year, and every single one of them was down in 2020 when the market made 18%.

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Yeah, I had a bit in a small cap index and I think I was about 22% for 2020 - that was a GREAT year.

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Of course, if you didn't think of doing it no one else could right?

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Not what I said at all.

My point is that people make this stuff up all the time. I fully believe people have gone to cash over the last 9 months or so. What I don’t believe is that these people also captured all the gains over the last decade. It’s not in the DNA of people that swing so wildly in their allocations.

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My point is that people make this stuff up all the time. I fully believe people have gone to cash over the last 9 months or so. What I don’t believe is that these people also captured all the gains over the last decade. It’s not in the DNA of people that swing so wildly in their allocations.

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I think your premise is wrong.

It’s too black and white of a statement.

Many people have made big moves in this market, as this is one of the best opportunities we’ve seen in years.

So, according to this thread I should hold my investments long term, and also sell them because we are not near the bottom.

Got it.

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As of today I am 7.2% up for the year.

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Very well done.

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I wish my professionally managed account was doing so well

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Why didn’t you have them make the common sense moves you made in your account? Serious question.

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It’s common sense my friend. That’s all I’m doing and it’s working.

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Your first thread on here was on 4/8 asking…

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I’m not very familiar with exactly what is the balance sheet and why I should care. $9 trillion is a very large number though. So exactly what happens when they reduce their balance sheet? What did they purchase and how are they going to get rid of it?

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On one hand you say it’s common sense with QE ending and on the other you didn’t know what QE was in early April. Surely you understand why believing you sold all equities except energy in March is a little tough to believe, no?