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re: Signs we may be nearing a bottom

Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:39 am to
Posted by DaTruth7
Member since Apr 2020
4182 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:39 am to
Telling people to buy and hold Long term isn't some sage advice. It's basically the cornerstone of investing. There are people really good at running models and predicting this stuff. Just not many on here unfortunately. I'll admit I'm not one of them.

But saying "hey man, just buy, it'll go up eventually" isn't rocket science. But there are people timing this thing.
Posted by sawtooth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2017
3588 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:43 am to
quote:

Only a fool thinks he/she can time it


My 8% YTD return on my investment would beg to disagree.

Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
9102 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:45 am to
Now do annuals from 2016-2021

And do it honestly.
Posted by DTRooster
Belle River, La
Member since Dec 2013
9149 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:48 am to
You are correct, stay in and it goes up. Eventually. What’s lost in the theory, today, is effects no interest and QE has had since 2008. Look at the historical charts of the indices and it’s pretty obvious where the markets should be, if you want to use past history as
a guide. If I were 30 I wouldn’t even care right now but I’m not
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2246 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:50 am to
Some of you are getting pumped with some serious fear porn by the media. Go ahead and sell low and buy high. It's the only thing that keeps this thing going full circle. I do appreciate each of you
Posted by DTRooster
Belle River, La
Member since Dec 2013
9149 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:52 am to
Ok retard
Posted by sawtooth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2017
3588 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:54 am to
quote:

Now do annuals from 2016-2021


I didn’t play the market then. I just bought and held.

You know the Fed is going to raise rates. You know it’s going to cause a recession. There is nothing positive going on in the economy right now.

Even a fool like me could see the writing on the wall. I took out 60% in March to hold on the sidelines. I kept 40% in energy because of all the sanctions that was being thrown around at Russia. I will absolutely get back in when I think we hit bottom. I’m sure I won’t be spot on but I will be close enough to not lose +(10%) of my value.

It could be months.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
9102 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 9:59 am to
You are the smartest guy in the room. Congrats hope it keeps working for you.
Posted by sawtooth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2017
3588 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 10:02 am to
quote:

You are the smartest guy in the room. Congrats hope it keeps working for you.


Wow thanks. You are so kind.

Yes it’s working great. Not losing thousands of dollars a day is awesome!
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96500 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 10:49 am to
quote:

Some of you are getting pumped with some serious fear porn by the media. Go ahead and sell low and buy high. It's the only thing that keeps this thing going full circle. I do appreciate each of you


Yeah, I'm in for another 15 to 17 years. This is a buying opportunity for me, for however long the bear market lasts (9 months, a year). I don't sweat money that I haven't lost. I own more shares every paycheck. If everything goes South from here on for 15 to 17 years, we'll have much bigger problems to worry about. Like food, water, electricity. Having X or Y amount of worthless numbers in a worthless electronic account will be a tertiary concern at best.
Posted by bod312
Member since Jul 2015
846 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Yes it’s working great. Not losing thousands of dollars a day is awesome!


You should open a business and advise people how to invest. I mean the smartest people in the world are paid millions of dollars a year and basically given almost unlimited resources to beat the market and over an extended period of time 10-20 years like 96% of them fail. This also includes them and their team spending 80+ hours a week doing nothing but trying to beat the market.
I am sure you are in that 4% even with it being your side gig! Think how much you could make with your investing prowess as well as collecting fees from others.
Posted by DaTruth7
Member since Apr 2020
4182 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:04 am to
A lot of people sell stocks when interest rates are going up. Hence the downturn. What he's doing isn't something new.
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2246 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:32 am to
quote:

Yeah, I'm in for another 15 to 17 years. This is a buying opportunity for me, for however long the bear market lasts (9 months, a year). I don't sweat money that I haven't lost. I own more shares every paycheck. If everything goes South from here on for 15 to 17 years, we'll have much bigger problems to worry about.


Yep. You get it. These threads are entertaining nonetheless
Posted by sawtooth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2017
3588 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:40 am to
quote:

You should open a business and advise people how to invest


I’m outperforming my Edward Jones guy so maybe you’re right.

Thanks for the encouragement.

Dow is down 400 pts already today. My energy stocks are barely still in the green. Making money.
Posted by DaTruth7
Member since Apr 2020
4182 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:41 am to
So you sat and watched your portfolio drop 15 to 20%, but feel like a genius because you are continuing to buy on the way down? I guess it's the smart thing to do to keep buying, but it's no brilliant move to be laughing at others.
This post was edited on 5/20/22 at 11:43 am
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
9102 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:10 pm to
The problem with choosing when to sell:

98% of the “sell the market” crew has sold many times over the last decade because of (insert rationale).

They’ve missed upside, albeit protecting some downside here and there, but likely underperformed a buy and hold strategy over a long period of time.

The good thing for the MT though, we have the best 2% of market predictors contributing here. They’re able to pick when to stay long, when to buy puts, and still have the time to manage their tens of millions while posting on a forum. Impressive.
Posted by DaTruth7
Member since Apr 2020
4182 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:12 pm to
Yeah I hear ya haha. But if someone said hey, the fed is raising rates I'm going to take a chunk out. That isn't a crazy thing to do and a lot of people probably did.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96500 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

So you sat and watched your portfolio drop 15 to 20%


Hypothetically. It is a hypothetical number until I sell. Your response is understandable, but emotional.

Recall that the stock market is the mechanism by which the patient extract wealth from the impatient.

Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
9102 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:20 pm to
The market isn’t selling off into a technical bear simply because the Fed stated they planned to raise rates 2-3%.

The Fed raised rates in 2015-2018, and if you avoided stock through that time period, you missed out.

Even with the stated Fed rate hikes, short term rates will still be below historical means.

- the market significantly under expected inflation
- Ukraine
- Fear of Recession looming

I’ll say it again.. had you stayed diversified.. dividend stocks are flat to positive on the year. S&P and Nasdaq indexes are getting hammered, but if you stuck true to investment principles, this is not destroying you.
Posted by ThermoDynamicTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
1517 posts
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:21 pm to
This is fun. We're all in this together, right?! Feels like finals and we are all about to fail as a class.
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