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Started By
Message
Should we front run MSOS?
Posted on 12/31/23 at 11:36 am
Posted on 12/31/23 at 11:36 am
As you guys know, I really like to push hard on what I call asymmetrical betting (i.e. BTC). A bet where the chances of a 50% haircut are the same as a 10x-20x.
About a week ago, Biden pardoned thousands on Marijuana related charges. I really believe this was a prequel to something bigger/ a test of some sorts to collect data for the election.
That brings us to our bet.
MSOS - This is a Cannabis ETF that is down from a $50 high to around $7 right now.
If nothing happens and I am wrong, this ETF stays flat. If he decriminalizes it to fire up the base, this thing is going to 10x-20x.
I bring this to you for awareness and discussion.
What holes do you see in this logic and/or trade?
About a week ago, Biden pardoned thousands on Marijuana related charges. I really believe this was a prequel to something bigger/ a test of some sorts to collect data for the election.
That brings us to our bet.
MSOS - This is a Cannabis ETF that is down from a $50 high to around $7 right now.
If nothing happens and I am wrong, this ETF stays flat. If he decriminalizes it to fire up the base, this thing is going to 10x-20x.
I bring this to you for awareness and discussion.
What holes do you see in this logic and/or trade?
9
Posted on 12/31/23 at 11:39 am to I Love Bama
Posted on 12/31/23 at 11:45 am to I Love Bama
Posted on 12/31/23 at 2:09 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
His base will eat this up.
typical idiots
Posted on 1/2/24 at 6:31 pm to I Love Bama
Why is the downside that it remains flat? If I buy today, and it re-tests the August 2023 lows and can't bounce back, that's approx. a 30% loss.
What is your time horizon for holding and selling? I see the election mentioned (Nov 2024).
What is your time horizon for holding and selling? I see the election mentioned (Nov 2024).
Posted on 1/2/24 at 8:07 pm to skewbs
1 year.
Basically a play on politics.
If they make it a big campaign issue it could 10x. If it’s not, like you said it remains flat to a 30% drop.
Asymmetrical bet.
Basically a play on politics.
If they make it a big campaign issue it could 10x. If it’s not, like you said it remains flat to a 30% drop.
Asymmetrical bet.
Posted on 1/3/24 at 10:23 pm to I Love Bama
Just because it was once a lot higher is not in and of itself a great reason to buy something. Many of the stocks in the fund are probably going to zero.
This post was edited on 1/3/24 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 1/3/24 at 10:58 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
I really believe this was a prequel to something bigger/ a test of some sorts to collect data for the election.
The President doesn't have the power to decriminalize Marijuana unilaterally. And almost literally nothing will pass Congress this year.
A good brief by the Congressional Research Service
Similar to canceling student loans before the last election, I could see him trying to change the CSA by executive order ahead of November 2024. But I think it'd be struck down in court, again. For investing purposes this would give you enough time to get in and get out I suppose
This post was edited on 1/3/24 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 1/4/24 at 5:47 am to Ostrich
Good article. What about just getting the DEA to change the classification?
It looks like that is already in the works.
But you do bring up a good point about congress doing nothing this year.
It looks like that is already in the works.
But you do bring up a good point about congress doing nothing this year.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 4:22 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
What holes do you see in this logic and/or trade?
I don't see 10x-20x.
The $50 high was never based in fundamentals, so you can't really use that as PT to get back to.
A lot depends on what "legalization" looks like.
Does it fix 280E?
Does it allwo for inter-state commerce.
The Cannabis companies have lots of financial/operational issues to get past until they are profitable. And until then it will be hard for it to be truly investable.
This post was edited on 1/4/24 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 1/15/24 at 4:52 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
I bring this to you for awareness and discussion.
Or could it be you're hyping a stock you own?
Posted on 1/15/24 at 7:13 pm to I Love Bama
I don’t pay much attention to weed stocks but a better trade would be to just buy the best in class marijuana company that’s publicly traded. Then buy puts on the etf, hedge, since a lot of those companies are likely trash. If this idea you have comes to fruition, most of the big time players will look for that best in class company to put money on.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 1:12 pm to I Love Bama
Up almost 40% on this trade. Did anyone else join in?
Posted on 2/11/24 at 8:55 pm to I Love Bama
Conservatives win in the Fall. A anti-weed agenda gets developed as a reaction to undoing everything the dems have done. Weed is outlawed. Your bet goes to zero.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:33 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
Up almost 40% on this trade. Did anyone else join in?
I jumped in after the news broke last summer. Up 55%.
ETA: Make that up 47% after today. LOL
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 5:57 pm
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