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AmericaOverParties
USA Fan
Along I-10
Member since Jan 2018
328 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
Its not a good play after doing the math. Def thought the odds would be better.


LSU1018
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
6548 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
I think doing this on the craps table on the don't pass bet would be more successful.


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
37508 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:


I think doing this on the craps table on the don't pass bet would be more successful


It's all relative, as there is no expected value that would ever turn positive without counting cards.


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foshizzle
LSU Fan
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
37382 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

Continue to double down until you win the hand then return to $10 and start again.


That's the classic Martingale and the problem with it is that you can't double forever. The casino has a much bigger bankroll than you do, after all. Eventually you will hit a streak long enough that you go broke.

This is a problem with counting cards in blackjack too if you are an individual player. Teams can get away with more, but for individuals the edge that counting provides isn't really enough to overcome the bankroll size difference.


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auisssa
Alabama Fan
Member since Feb 2010
2051 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
I trjed this on the field in craps. Busted out. Was not pretty


TheChosenOne
VCU Fan
Member since Dec 2005
14683 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
I was curious about this and put it in to practice on a $5 table. I had $715 and it would take 7 losses in a row to bust out.

Say you go 50 spins without losing your bankroll, there’s no guarantee that you will be up X amount. It all varies based on win/loss streaks within those 50 spins. You will hit hot streaks where you will be up $50 in 15 spins, then there will be cold streaks where you’ll have a handful of 3-5 loss streaks before winning where you’ll only be up say $15 in 15 spins.

In the end, I played for about 6 hours over a couple days (I would get bored) and ended up winning around $600. There were 2 times where I made it to the 7th spin with $320 on the table.

If you’re interested in trying it out, you can always go to one of the fast roulette machines that sometimes have $1-3 bets. It’ll be a bit cheaper and the spins are faster, so you won’t have to invest as much time.
This post was edited on 2/10 at 7:14 am


LSUShock
LSU Fan
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
2736 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
The golf pro at the course I play got heavy into this for like 2 months. He was going to the casino a couple times a week, using the system, and waking out with a couple hundred bucks each time. He kept telling everyone about it and I was like no way this ends well.

Apparently he had gotten up a couple grand, went back one night, and good old 0 and 00 crashed his house of cards. Ended up losing everything that he had made and then some.
This post was edited on 2/10 at 12:01 pm


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TigerstuckinMS
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2005
12238 posts
 Online 

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

Its not a good play after doing the math.

It's NEVER a good play after doing the math. That's how casinos work.
This post was edited on 2/10 at 10:08 pm


ATLdawg25
Georgia Fan
Atlanta, GA
Member since Oct 2014
3840 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

In the end, I played for about 6 hours over a couple days (I would get bored) and ended up winning around $600. There were 2 times where I made it to the 7th spin with $320 on the table.

Another way to look at it. You were basically two coin flips away from walking away with nothing.


TheChosenOne
VCU Fan
Member since Dec 2005
14683 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

Another way to look at it. You were basically two coin flips away from walking away with nothing.



Not technically true because I had won on previous spins and had some profit in the bank already, but to be more acurate, I was two coin flips away from losing everything I walked in with.


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AmericaOverParties
USA Fan
Along I-10
Member since Jan 2018
328 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
Well using this system to win a few bucks a time or two is a pretty decent play. Highly unlikely you'd lose 7x consecutively in 10 or so spins so you'd make a few bucks there.


Vandyrone
Vanderbilt Fan
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2012
3774 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

Well using this system to win a few bucks a time or two is a pretty decent play. Highly unlikely you'd lose 7x consecutively in 10 or so spins so you'd make a few bucks there.


True but few gamblers running Martingale will have the ability to only run this "a time or two". It is fools gold and that 7x streak out of 10 spins will hit in round 8 or 9 or 10...


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TigerstuckinMS
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2005
12238 posts
 Online 

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

Well using this system to win a few bucks a time or two is a pretty decent play. Highly unlikely you'd lose 7x consecutively in 10 or so spins so you'd make a few bucks there.


This statement right here is why casinos are a multi-billion dollar industry.

The best case with $10 hands over 10 spins is that you've won every spin and walked with $100. Remember, you're not doubling your bet in response to winning; winning just means your next bet is $10. Winning 10 hands in a row is WAY less likely than losing 7 in a row and your BEST outcome if that happens (with $10 hands playing a Martingale) is only $100.

If you are playing 10 hands and Martingale out to table maximum on a $10 initial bet (assuming $1k table max), that's 7 hands and you've just lost about $1250 (depending on whether you started losing on hand 1,2,3, or 4). If that happens to you just ONE time, you've gotta win over 120 more $10 hands than you lose in the long run just to erase that one bad streak. Do you know what casinos are REALLY good at doing? Making sure their games will not allow players to win 120 hands more than they lose in the long run.

The Martingale system is fatally wounded simply by the difference in bankrolls that you and the casino hold. Once the casino throws in table maximums, the Martingale system is not only fatally wounded, but its organs are pulled out of its body and shown to it one by one as it's dying a quick, brutish, horrible death.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 12:02 pm


EA6B
Navy Fan
TX
Member since Dec 2012
6308 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

This statement right here is why casinos are a multi-billion dollar industry.


I always tell my friends that gamble, when you walk into that hotel/casino look around at all the nice amenities, the marble, the glass, and wood work, because you bought that for the casino.


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go ta hell ole miss
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2007
5018 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
(no message)
This post was edited on 2/12 at 7:37 pm


iAmBatman
USA Fan
The Batcave
Member since Mar 2011
7401 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

You actually have the odds in your favor.


I would love to see how your system creates better odds. Can you explain in a little more detail?


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slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
37508 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

There is only one way to have the odds at roulette and it involves a team game with someone actiling like a drunk betting the green squares (35/1, so he can afford to lose) and you betting odd/even or red/black. You actually have the odds in your favor.


Lolwut?


go ta hell ole miss
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2007
5018 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
ETA
This post was edited on 2/12 at 7:36 pm


go ta hell ole miss
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2007
5018 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
To answer your original question in simpler math terms:

If the maximum loss is 255 dollars/units then you can bet up to 8 times. The probability of losing eight bets in a row is (19/37)8=.004835. So, you have 99.52% of winning one dollar/unit, and 0.48% of losing 255 dollars/units. Those are not odds any sharp would ever take.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 7:27 pm


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slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
37508 posts

re: Roulette - Martingale System
quote:

You are now betting $6 to possibly win $41 with a greater odds ratio than betting $5 to win even money and a lower odds ratio.


If there is only one zero, it's a wash. You have the same expected value with $5 on red as you do with $5 on red and $1 on zero.


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