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re: Retirement goal and how to get there: looking for advice / opinions

Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:05 pm to
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135281 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

Serious question, what is your recommendation then? If you are in the market you assume risk, that's part of the game
Not playing catch-up is part of the game as well.
But that's water under the bridge.

In terms of normal retirement portfolio investment, the later the stage, the poorer the recoverability, and so, the less the inherent risk tolerance. So at a time where one should be dialing back portfolio risk, the OP needs a late-stage elevated ROI. Risks relative to tolerance are high. It's suboptimal, not impossible. But in no way is the gambit guaranteed.

(I put this in terms of "normal retirement portfolio investment" as opposed to those of us -- younger or well-off -- who have less need to be risk averse. E.g. I can now maintain lifestyle at a ~1% ROI with no principal drawdown. As have most folks here, I've been pulling double digit market returns. So, though I could buy a truckload of 30-yr US-T's and just tread water, to me that really wouldn't make sense. For me personally, risk mitigation beyond the norm simply isn't necessary if it comes at the predictable expense of ROI. Therefore, I'll continue to play the market. That's not a "normal retirement portfolio")

Broad market ETFs could absolutely get the OP to his target if the markets hold. It's probably his best bet in risk/benefit terms. That would be my portfolio recommendation for him.

Nonetheless, if the markets lag or flag at some point in the next 7yrs, it's a losing gambit.

Personally, I work to minimize chance. I control the controllable, and as much as possible, limit exposure to the uncontrollable. The OP could still approach his goal, even with slightly underperforming future ROI if he addresses issues within his control. Like, for example, reining back spending and increasing savings now, assuming that is possible. That premise would accompany any investment recommendation, especially in light of his early retirement plans.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 4:29 pm
Posted by tigerbacon
Arkansas
Member since Aug 2010
4449 posts
Posted on 7/7/25 at 6:02 pm to
If you retire at 65 or on a pension health care won’t be much
Posted by Jmcc64
alabama
Member since Apr 2021
1758 posts
Posted on 7/8/25 at 5:01 pm to
for those that have retired, did you go ahead and get some of the major home expenses out of the way beforehand (new roof comes to mind) ?
I can see needing a new one in a few years and I'd hate to shell out 30-40k and not have an income to replenish that.
Posted by KennytheTiger
bella vista ar
Member since Apr 2012
469 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 9:52 am to
6-7k a month is insane in retirement. To put it in perspective I am 40 and when I retire the only bill besides utilities I will have is property tax. I am also expecting to have 20kish a month coming in combined me and my wife.
________

Medical expenses
Health insurance
Property insurance
Property taxes
Auto maintenance
Toys, like boats
Vacations
Kids,grandkids
Social activity, eating/drinking/concerts

The list goes on....
Posted by agilitydawg
Member since Aug 2022
188 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 12:38 pm to
We are both at about the same timeline. I am couple of years older but plan to keep working until I am 65.

Let's say you need 7K a month to be comfortable as you retire. 84K a year is likely to be pulling closer to 100K plus or more to account for taxes. Subtract out SS or pension money if you can get to your number with help from these options at the time you retire.

I like the general concept of the bucket system and have been sorting out strategies about creating the bucket that keeps me from needing to sell stocks in a down market. Not sure if I care to have an Intermediate bucket or not. - 3-6 year money not exposed to as high of market risk.

As for cash flow needs the simpiliest way for me to visualize it is approximate the dollars needed to replace our takehome pay as it currently stands.

For myself and my wife the initial years of her retirement while I will still work we need about 150 K to keep her cash flow secured for three year until she draws SS at 67 and that will reduce the bucket size about 75 K

I probably will wait until 70 for Social Security. I think my bucket to insulate for serious downturns will be close to 300 K to replace my take home pay and account for taxes.

One of my main ways to fund this will probably be to direct dividends from investments into secure investments (still working out what I would invest in)

So I will have in the neighboorhood of 400K that I will not have in my typical S&P investments and directing it to lower return but more secure investments like treauries, CD's, HYS etc. when we are both retired.

Whatever numbers work for your situation, the short version is you probably will need to build up some lower return but more certain investments to secure your retirement cashflow and this will likely lower your overall return on investments as you build these funds. I doubt you would want to do that all right before retirement considering that could coincide with a market downturn.

In addition to all that we keep a decent emergency fund to cover expenses like a new roof, HVAC or decent used car if needed.

You might want to consider this as you project your possible returns in the next 6 or so years.

On another note Georgia does treat 62 yo seniors pretty well with property tax exemptions from school taxes which is about 55 percent of my property tax bill. (Some counties maybe not all)
Posted by GeauxTigers123
Member since Feb 2007
3052 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

I don’t know, but I do know I’d be terrified to retire at 63 with $1.5mm-$2mm, which is what I assume you will have.



Idk if I will retire until I can’t physically work. No matter how much is save I’ll be worried about money. Things cost such much now and will only get worse.


Edit: I’m referencing doing part time work to keep benefits.
This post was edited on 7/9/25 at 1:36 pm
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

84K a year is likely to be pulling closer to 100K plus or more to account for taxes.


You have taxes very high. For example, SS probably won't be taxed at all (this applies to many states). If SS is half of the $100k a year then the tax burden is $50k minus deductions. That all comes out to much less than $16k a year in taxes.

There is medical coverage which when added to the actual tax burden makes your $84k to live on number more realistic in that situation.
Posted by TorchtheFlyingTiger
1st coast
Member since Jan 2008
2893 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

84K a year is likely to be pulling closer to 100K plus or more to account for taxes.

Even assuming it's 100% from traditional 401k/IRA and taxable as income (no Roth, capital gains/dividends, basis etc...) that's a high estimate of tax burden.
Married get $30k standard deduction untaxed. Then next $23,850 is only taxed 10% followed by 12% up to nearly $100k. You arent paying 16% tax rate on $100k+ to net $84k. (Even given GA state taxes at 5.19% after $24k deduction)
This post was edited on 7/9/25 at 1:43 pm
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 1:45 pm to
It's even better than that in Georgia. SS is not taxed at all and investment income is not taxed unless it exceeds $65k a year (at and after age 65). The only tax burden then becomes federal income taxes,

The standard deductions are also higher than you stated past age 65.
This post was edited on 7/9/25 at 1:46 pm
Posted by tigerbacon
Arkansas
Member since Aug 2010
4449 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 1:49 pm to
Most of that is optional. Monthly bills is what you have to pay not choose to pay
Posted by agilitydawg
Member since Aug 2022
188 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 2:20 pm to
I will be happy if you are both right about taxes. The BBB does not exempt SS from federal taxes, but it provides a $6,000 deduction that only lasts through 2028, unless Congress takes action, which is outside the window OP is looking at for retirement. I believe it is also only for seniors over the age of 65.

I was also projecting my own likely tax rate, so are you correct that instead of 100K to get to 84K, it should be 90K? 95K?

The main point is that the OP may need to consider a portion of his portfolio having less risk and therefore likely somewhat smaller returns overall to meet his annual take-home needs without digging into his primary long term investments during a down market.

VA Buckeye -- I did not understand the comment "There is medical coverage which when added to the actual tax burden makes 84K more realisitic...." -- Meaning Medicare at 65?


This post was edited on 7/9/25 at 2:23 pm
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 2:24 pm to
Yes, meaning medicare at 65.

I'm not far from retirement and have done a ton of research on tax implications and where to live to minimize my tax burden.
Posted by Sho Nuff
Oahu
Member since Feb 2009
13373 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

I'm not far from retirement and have done a ton of research on tax implications and where to live to minimize my tax burden.

I'm still working on that for myself. Hawaii did pass good state tax reductions over the next few years. It started in 2024 and by 2031 the standard deduction jumps to $24k. It was $8,800 in 2024 which was double 2023. I'll still be itemizing for a bit though. Essentially $50,001-$100K in 2031 will have Hawaii as the 40th ranked state out of 41 including DC. They're not counting states with no income tax. Its making me reconsider having to change my primary.
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
23301 posts
Posted on 7/9/25 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

It's very conservative. Show your math. The historical return of VOO, for example, is 13.4%. Given that average one could still easily take out 6% and still be growing their money.


How many retirees are 100% in equities though? 4% bonds are out there for 4,5,10, and 20 years. I’m no where close to retirement but I’d think you’d be nuts to not be closer to 60/40 or less equities/ bonds right now in retirement.

So take your 13% at 40% and bonds at 4% and sure you have a little money to play with but I’d think you are better off assuming that’s a bonus than the norm.
This post was edited on 7/9/25 at 6:26 pm
Posted by CenlaLowell
Alexandria, la
Member since Apr 2016
1218 posts
Posted on 7/10/25 at 1:43 am to
quote:

6-7k a month is insane in retirement. To put it in perspective I am 40 and when I retire the only bill besides utilities I will have is property tax. I am also expecting to have 20kish a month coming in combined me and my wife.



I feel like this too. Also there's no way I would retire and still have a mortgage. The answer is to go into retirement with zero debt. If the OP knew he needed 7k he should save somewhere between 3-5 million. I don't know how much that country club is but its probably going to have be cancelled.
Posted by CenlaLowell
Alexandria, la
Member since Apr 2016
1218 posts
Posted on 7/10/25 at 1:50 am to
quote:

Medical expenses
Health insurance
Property insurance
Property taxes
Auto maintenance
Toys, like boats
Vacations
Kids,grandkids
Social activity, eating/drinking/concerts



1. Only for two years Medicaid kicks in
2 . Will be around 144$ in two years when Medicaid
3. Will always increase seems like so prepare
4. Price locks in for senior citizens
5. With no car note should be minimal maintenance
6. Not needed and if so should have prepared much better
7. Should not be a problem to take three vacation a year and not break the bank
8. Kids should handle that
9. This of course will vary
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
32646 posts
Posted on 7/10/25 at 6:00 am to
What do you do for work? Is it something you could do part time? You’re gonna need more money in retirement than you’re projecting yourself

And you should not be managing your money TBH. If you’re taking big losses from “learning lessons” within 6 years of retiring, you need to either play safe or have someone else managing your retirement funds

You also should not be banking on growth to survive in retirement, especially with the above. You’re going to take a loss or have the market come down and you’re going to be going back to work at 70 for the rest of your life
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
32646 posts
Posted on 7/10/25 at 6:02 am to
quote:

country club

Have you told the boys at the country club that you don’t have enough to retire? Time to figure out how to manage your money and reset your expectations baw
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
23301 posts
Posted on 7/10/25 at 7:04 am to
quote:

Edit: I’m referencing doing part time work to keep benefits.


It’s not easy to find a part time job that offers benefits like medical coverage.

But I agree, what does the OP do? Retirement is a very out dated term. Op needs to look into ending his main career but continuing some sort of side hustle or part time job. It’s not difficult to work 2-3 days a week and make $2,000-3000/ month. That could be a huge portion of his financial needs.

Do that for 5-10 years. Member of a country club? Work there. Be a starter, get your dues for free, free golf, and an easy job you enjoy bullshitting all day with other retired friends. Something like that. An easy job that you enjoy, make some money, and is stress free.

Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 7/10/25 at 7:13 am to
You bing up a good point.

The term retirement can be different for people depending on their needs.
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