Predict the next drop in the markets

If I knew this I probably wouldn't be on TD at least not right now.

Sold today. Had a nice two day run. A little concerned about going into the weekend holding equities with the jobs report coming out. Booked the profits over two very nice days.

80% cash, 20% tips.

Tomorrow after the jobs numbers. Tomorrow may not wipe out the past 2 days of gains, but it will put a big dent in them, and I suspect those gains will eventually be wiped out on earnings numbers not meeting expectations.

Jobs report tomorrow. Claims are going to be crazy high due to the number of younger people out of work. Almost all of the college students I know filed for Unemployment to get that check and they never have before. Expect that number to be 3.8 million, which is over a million more than commonly projecting.

Why isn’t the spike in unemployment already baked in?

Why do investors only react when it actually happen?

Because this is unprecedented uncertainty. Look at the estimates, they are all over the place. How can we bake in when the estimates are all different by like a million.

But investors don’t react based on trivial differences between the estimates and the print


They react based on the gist of what the report will say

Why would an investor react differently to a print of X, rather than a print of 1.005x?

quote:

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dallastiger55 is not asleep at the wheel and buys his fricking Boeing stock.

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Soon. I bought in last week and went to 100% cash after the 2 day rally. All the stimulus does is ease worst case concerns that a company will go completely to zero (bankrupt). We still have the realities coming soon of great depression level unemployment and earnings reports. I'll buy back in after the next 20% drop.

Tomorrow or Friday. Get your shopping list out and start buying for the ride back up.