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Posted on 4/11/25 at 9:49 am to LSURussian
Looking and I don’t see where it was ever actually suggested by the fed. I think I’m just remembering chatter from last summer when pundits were saying we needed to accept a new normal.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 9:52 am to TDFreak
quote:
Wrong. If you look at the Fed funds rate chart, you’ll see the Fed raised rates from 2016 to 2019. That’s most of Trump’s term. Trump was screaming at Powell over twitter to cut rates, which he finally did in Summer of 2019. The Fed kept rates at under 0.2% for the entirety of Obama’s term. That’s who really benefited from loose monetary policy.
Rates can be raising while still being lower than they should be. Trump blew out federal spending at the same time the world’s economy was in chaos. The Fed kowtowing to the Trump administration in reversing course on interest rates is what set the stage for the inflation explosion under the Biden administration.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 9:57 am to HVAU
quote:I'm not trying to make this political, but you totally left off the second part of my reply about how they were near-zero most of the 2010s.
The Fed raised rates to 2.5 by 2019, which is very low historically (the historic average being 5.41), and maintaining rates that low for that long was likely an error that greatly contributed to the inflation that was seen post-2020.
That's pretty low historically, don't you think?
I even remember some talk about negative lending rates on the global markets back then, so I asked Gemini. Sure enough, here's a good summary:
quote:
In the 2010s, several central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to combat deflation and stimulate economic growth. Denmark was the first to do so in 2012, followed by the ECB in 2014 and the Bank of Japan in 2016.
Raising the Fed rate from zero to 2.5 is significant to the markets from a relative perspective. That's 200 percent! And a much greater magnitude than raising it, say, from 5.0 to 7.5, which would be 50 percent increase despite being the same number of basis points. And it was a rapid increase compared to a decade of zero change. The economy was indeed cooling in 2019 and the Fed took a little off just prior to the COVID disaster.
Oh and hey, good basketball game last weekend. LOL.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 9:57 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Cut the rates Jerome stop playing politics
Posted on 4/11/25 at 9:58 am to Joshjrn
quote:Uh..hello? Did you totally forget about COVID? They slashed rates because the entire world economy shut down and there was no investing unless the capital was cheap.
The Fed kowtowing to the Trump administration in reversing course on interest rates is what set the stage for the inflation explosion under the Biden administration.
I'm not a Trump apologist, but there was no kowtowing. The data is there: the interest rates were increasing for three years between 2016-2019 after being zero for a decade. No politics there. And after adding 250 bps in three years, the Fed made a normal cut in 2019. But then, they took it back down to practically zero after COVID.
Then they started raising it again these past few years once inflation went through the roof in 2021 to today.
This post was edited on 4/11/25 at 10:03 am
Posted on 4/11/25 at 9:59 am to Joshjrn
Well that plus the continuous ridiculous amount of spending in the Biden administration. Congressional spending needs to get reigned in big time
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:04 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Cut the rates Jerome stop playing politics
He won't. It's why he has to be removed ASAP
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:04 am to TDFreak
quote:
Uh..hello? Did you totally forget about COVID? They slashed rates because the entire world economy shut down and there was no investing unless the capital was cheap.
Which set the stage for the inflation explosion a year or two later.
You understand that both can be true, right?
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:06 am to Civildawg
quote:
Well that plus the continuous ridiculous amount of spending in the Biden administration. Congressional spending needs to get reigned in big time
100%. I in no way absolve Biden; I simply equally blame Trump. Trump spent like a drunken sailor while using the bully pulpit to advocate for lower interest rates. Biden spent like an even drunker sailor, but at least allowed interest rates to raise without issue. Both are drunken sailor frick ups.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:07 am to Joshjrn
quote:
Which set the stage for the inflation explosion a year or two later.
quote:
You understand that both can be true, right?
Disingenuous. You're twisting your original answer. You left out COVID and said it was about the Fed kowtowing to the Trump administration in reversing course on interest rates. But if you look at the Fed funds rate chart you will see there was no kowtowing like you said: the Fed raised interest rates repeatedly for most of Trump's term much to his displeasure. I have a feeling you have TDS.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:08 am to TDFreak
quote:
I'm not trying to make this political, but you totally left off the second part of my reply about how they were near-zero most of the 2010s. That's pretty low historically, don't you think?
Absolutely. Powell wasn’t Fed chair during that time, and this discussion began when another poster claimed that Powell isn’t lowering rates because he hates Trump. All of the publicly known Fed goals indicate to us that the Fed shouldn’t raise rates at the moment.
For the 2010 through 2016 years the Fed rate was very low. 2010 was only two years removed from the 2008 meltdown, which was very slow recovery. The economic landscape during that time was vastly different from the economic landscape of 2017-2019, and from that of 2020-2024, and from that of present.
The Fed isn’t operating on a mission of personal grievance. The Fed is monitoring conditions and applying its mechanisms in ways that it believes will achieve its targets.
Yeah. Congrats on the title.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:10 am to TDFreak
quote:
Disingenuous. You're twisting your original answer. You left out COVID and said it was about the Fed kowtowing to the Trump administration in reversing course on interest rates. But if you look at the Fed funds rate chart you will see there was no kowtowing like you said: the Fed raised interest rates repeatedly for most of Trump's term much to his displeasure. I have a feeling you have TDS.
I planned to reply to you in depth until I saw the last sentence. You aren’t a serious person, so I won’t give you the benefit of engaging with you as though you were
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:15 am to Joshjrn
Are you still trying to deny you have TDS?
Someone isnt serious for pointing out the obvious?
Someone isnt serious for pointing out the obvious?
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:18 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Are you still trying to deny you have TDS? Someone isnt serious for pointing out the obvious?
You’re the least serious person on this board. I know I’m not alone in writing you off ages ago as not worth the effort. You simply lie until you can’t reasonably lie anymore, then ghost the thread to wait for the next one to lie again
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:22 am to TigersHuskers
quote:
Powell will never cut because he has a seething hatred of Trump.
Some of you are so stupid
Whatever Jerome Powell thinks of Trump is irrelevant, during his first term did you forget rates being cut going INTO covid (before it hit here)?
Oh no? Guess that blows up your theory.
Educate yourself
- Went from 2.4% early-mid 2019 to to about 1.5% by the end of 2019. Once covid was known it dropped to basically 0% shortly after in 2020.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:29 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Wrong. That would be deflation. The correct statement is that costs didn’t rise as much as the experts expected, but they did rise.
You’re not the first person to incorrectly state this in the last two days. Negative month over month numbers do, in fact, mean deflation for the period.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:32 am to HVAU
quote:
For the 2010 through 2016 years the Fed rate was very low. 2010 was only two years removed from the 2008 meltdown, which was very slow recovery. The economic landscape during that time was vastly different from the economic landscape of 2017-2019, and from that of 2020-2024, and from that of present.
And don't forget Obama, Boehner, and the Tea Party all arguing about the debt limit 2011-2013, with 2013 being the start of sequestration, dramatically lowering government spending. The Fed kept rates low to ensure the economy kept moving while the biggest spender in the country (the government) decided to pinch pennies.
They were successful as the economy was very much on an upswing when Trump took office and continued until COVID. Lord knows Trump spent like a drunken sailor so of course the Fed had to slowly raise rates. It would be easy to argue they didn't raise them enough as, when COVID hit, the Fed didn't have a whole lot of tools to employ.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:53 am to Joshjrn
What rant to just say yes you have TDS
Posted on 4/11/25 at 11:01 am to TDFreak
quote:
Trump was screaming at Powell over twitter to cut rates, which he finally did in Summer of 2019.
In June, 2019 inflation was at 1.6%. Why would the Fed start cutting their rate? It seemed really strange to me at the time, considering they had spent all 2016 raising it up from nearly zero, while keeping inflation under 2%. Why would he start dropping the rate when inflation was under the target, and unemployment had been falling all year and was at 3.6%? It really seemed like the best time to raise it.
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