re: Petrodollar agreement ends.

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I’m curious what Biden did to warrant the blame here, or more specifically, what would Trump do differently?

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Biden gets them blame for the escalation in weaponizing the dollar,freezing/appropriating assets of sovereign countries, kicking Russia off of SWIFT, etc.

Other countries see this done against Russia and realize it could happen to them. You can’t promote the dollar as the safe stable global reserve currency while also weaponizing it.

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The latest 10 year auction had insane bid to cover and indirect bids.

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I'm sure "BamaCoaster" will be by shortly to explain to the rest of us what you are talking about.

I mean, who doesn't trust the Chinese? I want some of their currency.

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kicking Russia off of SWIFT

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This did literally nothing. SWIFT is a messaging system. Funny enough, this "Petrodollar" agreement is as meaningless as our "sanctions" on Russia over the war. The Petrodollar isn't the reason the dollar dominates global trade and it never was. It's a good narrative to push though.

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Get back to us when the world decouples from Treasuries. The latest 10 year auction had insane bid to cover and indirect bids.

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This is a long process and we're already a decade in. Central bank UST holdings are basically flat on a net basis since 2014. Our debt was 17T in '14. It has since more than doubled. Banks, money markets and hedge funds were regulated into buying it (HQLA) but they're stuffed to the gills. The next step will probably be permanent SLR exemptions so they can eat the tidal wave of supply on deck. Meanwhile CB's are adding gold as USTs roll off their balance sheet. China swapped USTs with gold and belt and road.

Random auctions with artificially pinched supply (Yellen running the TGA down to manage size, shifting issuance to the short end etc...) coupled with UST positive news (increasing unemployment, CPI missing 10 bips to the downside etc...) are still well bid but in the last two years we have seen auctions tail with increasing frequency. This will continue as long as USTs continue to go down in oil terms.

USTs have to be as good as gold in oil terms or foreign buyers will store their surpluses in gold. Energy is the base layer. Whatever you're storing your buying power in has to stay even with it. That has not been the case with USTs for a while and it's only going to get worse.

All that said the premise of the OP is silly. There never was an expiration date on any petrodollar deal. OPEC is already selling oil in yuan in small amounts. And in the next year I predict you'll see an oil contract in yen with Washington's permission. It's in our best interest so the Japanese don't have to sell their massive UST hoard in order to buy oil while their currency disintegrates.

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Get back to us when the world decouples from Treasuries.

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How are you defining decoupling? Since 2015 the USD has only dropped in use as a reserve currency going from 65.73% to 58.41% in 2023. Going back to 2000 it was 71.13%. The difference has been spread among most of the various other currencies as small growth in their use.

This could well be an argument for underscoring what Art said about the process already being under way. If our continued irresponsible debt accumulation has any impact on this, then we can expect it to only continue.

As I've said before in reference to the USD's strength; we're the skinniest kid in fat camp, but we're now dining at an all-you-can-eat buffet.