- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: OUST - Q2 Earnings Thursday 6 August (Preview on Page 59)
Posted on 8/2/26 at 7:42 pm to iPad
Posted on 8/2/26 at 7:42 pm to iPad
One hell of a chart going into earnings.
I see no reason to hold back the excitement now.
Weekly and daily 20 EMA was saved last week.
I’m all LEAPS in one account and have 900 shares in another with covered calls at $45 (8/21) and $50 (8/7).
If I lose those shares on 8/7 then I may look into playing ELVA or NBIS earnings, very carefully…
I see no reason to hold back the excitement now.
Weekly and daily 20 EMA was saved last week.
I’m all LEAPS in one account and have 900 shares in another with covered calls at $45 (8/21) and $50 (8/7).
If I lose those shares on 8/7 then I may look into playing ELVA or NBIS earnings, very carefully…
2
Posted on 8/3/26 at 9:26 am to bayoubengals88
I’m hoping for a nice run leading up to earning. 44-45 dollar range.
But need the war to just chill for the week. Doubt that happens
But need the war to just chill for the week. Doubt that happens
Posted on 8/3/26 at 3:42 pm to bayoubengals88
Earning report tomorrow AMC
First day back in the green on this one in a while. Had 800 shares. Sold 200 of them today for a very modest gain.
Still a long term believer in OUST, but wanted to hedge myself a bit in case the report isn’t great or Trump blowing up Iran in the next two days
First day back in the green on this one in a while. Had 800 shares. Sold 200 of them today for a very modest gain.
Still a long term believer in OUST, but wanted to hedge myself a bit in case the report isn’t great or Trump blowing up Iran in the next two days
Posted on 8/3/26 at 3:46 pm to Bayou_Tiger_225
What are the thoughts for earnings? Expecting good news?
In this market, we may plunge even with great news.
In this market, we may plunge even with great news.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 4:36 pm to Bayou_Tiger_225
quote:Well done. Good patience.
First day back in the green on this one in a while. Had 800 shares. Sold 200 of them today for a very modest gain.
I'm expecting a positive quarter.
I sold 300 of 900 shares today and rolled covered calls way out for credits.
My only earnings play is $60 call expiring 8/21...sized accordingly.
If it pops to near $50 on earnings I'll make a double.
With the 300 shares that I sold today I bought five $60 2028 calls and put 5k on PLTR.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 4:57 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
My only earnings play is $60 call expiring 8/21...sized accordingly.
I’ve got 2 8/21 40c that I bought too early and have finally closed back into the green. I’ll probably hold through earnings to see what happens.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 4:57 pm to bayoubengals88
I have 8/7 $45 and 8/7 $50 open.
My CSPs got filled at $40 for a decent premium 2 weeks ago so I'm okay with wheeling these and replacing with another round of puts would be about 20% in 3 weeks plus premiums
My CSPs got filled at $40 for a decent premium 2 weeks ago so I'm okay with wheeling these and replacing with another round of puts would be about 20% in 3 weeks plus premiums
Posted on 8/3/26 at 5:02 pm to Bayou_Tiger_225
Earnings is thur
Posted on 8/3/26 at 6:53 pm to supadave3
quote:I’m expecting a revenue beat, but beating EPS is going to be tough given their expansion requirements. Their balance sheet is going to look very pretty though.
What are the thoughts for earnings? Expecting good news?
quote:If we strike Iran again it won’t matter what earning do
In this market, we may plunge even with great news
Posted on 8/3/26 at 7:15 pm to Bayou_Tiger_225
If it keeps running up before earnings, I might trim some and buy back if it dips post earnings. It seems like most of my stocks lately have beaten earnings and still drop. A couple days later pop.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 7:27 pm to zzgobucky
quote:you’re right. Idk why I had in my head August 6th was tomorrow
Earnings is thur
Posted on 8/3/26 at 7:31 pm to Bayou_Tiger_225
So we sellin? 
jk
jkPosted on 8/3/26 at 7:44 pm to Bayou_Tiger_225
Last earnings, I advised myself to dump on strength and go all in on a dip.
I even had protective calls to profit on a dip for more cash to go long.
I did just that.
Not this time.
Look at this chart. We’re ready to explode.
It never lost momentum. I know that sounds silly since we watched it fall from $64 to $31 in weeks, but technically the chart held its key weekly moving average at $28.xx
And then, it had the audacity to totally repair itself in a span of 2 days.
Right now, we’re going into earnings with a completely neutral RSI, a local top at $64 and a lot of bottled up momentum in a theme that everyone wants to be a part of.
I don’t think I’ll be holding cash for a dip. I won’t be buying protective puts either.
More to come on earnings below.
I even had protective calls to profit on a dip for more cash to go long.
I did just that.
Not this time.
Look at this chart. We’re ready to explode.
It never lost momentum. I know that sounds silly since we watched it fall from $64 to $31 in weeks, but technically the chart held its key weekly moving average at $28.xx
And then, it had the audacity to totally repair itself in a span of 2 days.
Right now, we’re going into earnings with a completely neutral RSI, a local top at $64 and a lot of bottled up momentum in a theme that everyone wants to be a part of.
I don’t think I’ll be holding cash for a dip. I won’t be buying protective puts either.
More to come on earnings below.
This post was edited on 8/3/26 at 8:01 pm
Posted on 8/3/26 at 8:30 pm to bayoubengals88
Here's the quick guide for Thursday.
Q3 guidance is likely the most important number.
60 million+ would be huge. Under 58 is not so hot.
Q3 guidance is likely the most important number.
60 million+ would be huge. Under 58 is not so hot.
This post was edited on 8/3/26 at 8:36 pm
Posted on 8/3/26 at 8:51 pm to bayoubengals88
Ouster (OUST) — Q2 2026 Preview
What changed since the May 5 print
Q1 was a Rev8 launch announcement with zero proof points. The proof points arrived.
Capacity
Benchmark expansion targets >100k units/year on a ten-year horizon — a direct answer to the supply constraint management flagged twice on the Q1 call.
Two regulatory doors, both opened June 30
NDAA Section 164 took effect, naming Hesai and covering the surrounding software/connectivity ecosystem. Separately, Rev8 cleared Build America, Buy America, unlocking federally funded DOT projects.
Named agreements
AIM Intelligent Machines (heavy earthmoving, multi-year), FieldAI (mobile robots), ARGUS (counter-UAS), Gecko Robotics, plus NVIDIA Jetson ecosystem integration.
Balance sheet
$192M net raised at $55.22 — roughly 2x the 200-day, an 8% discount, ~5.7% dilution, placed overnight by a single bookrunner. Excellent capital markets execution. Pro forma cash >$350M against ~$70M trailing burn.
The July news silence is a blackout, not a warning. Identical four-week gap preceded the May print.
Every commercial release both quarters landed inside the quarter.
The Real Risks
Guide is flat organically
$49.5–52.5M vs. $49M in Q1 — but Q1 held only seven weeks of StereoLabs, Q2 holds thirteen. Reconstruct lidar-only sequential growth.
Margin points down
43% printed against a 35–40% framework, with Rev8 explicitly designed cheaper than Rev7. Least-discussed risk in the name.
Deals are unquantified
No dollars, units, or timing on any June agreement. The market priced them as revenue.
Valuation
A software multiple on a 43%-gross-margin hardware business burning $69M/year FCF.
Metrics that matter, ranked
1. Q3 guide. Everything. FY consensus $223M needs ~$61M/quarter in 2H. A 5-handle breaks the "incredibly strong back half."
2. GAAP gross margin. 43% held = surprise. Sub-40% = the affordability strategy is hitting early.
3. Organic lidar growth ex-StereoLabs (44% y/y in Q1).
4. Rev8 unit mix and ASP delta.
5. Any dollar-sizing of AIM/FieldAI/ARGUS.
6. Adj. EBITDA slope (-$7M Q1; only $1M better y/y on $16M more revenue).
7. Capex (~$27M trailing — FCF breakeven lags EBITDA breakeven).
8. Reaffirmation of 30–50% growth / 35–40% GM / 5–8% opex.
The Takeaway
The business is materially stronger than it was in May, and the setup is cleaner than the June top — neutral RSI, base held, no priced-for-perfection risk. But the chart can't tell you what Gianella guides. Q3 revenue and gross margin carry this print; Q2 revenue is nearly irrelevant. Balanced into Thursday, constructive into 2027. Watch margin hardest — it's the variable nobody is discussing. Not financial advice.
What changed since the May 5 print
Q1 was a Rev8 launch announcement with zero proof points. The proof points arrived.
Capacity
Benchmark expansion targets >100k units/year on a ten-year horizon — a direct answer to the supply constraint management flagged twice on the Q1 call.
Two regulatory doors, both opened June 30
NDAA Section 164 took effect, naming Hesai and covering the surrounding software/connectivity ecosystem. Separately, Rev8 cleared Build America, Buy America, unlocking federally funded DOT projects.
Named agreements
AIM Intelligent Machines (heavy earthmoving, multi-year), FieldAI (mobile robots), ARGUS (counter-UAS), Gecko Robotics, plus NVIDIA Jetson ecosystem integration.
Balance sheet
$192M net raised at $55.22 — roughly 2x the 200-day, an 8% discount, ~5.7% dilution, placed overnight by a single bookrunner. Excellent capital markets execution. Pro forma cash >$350M against ~$70M trailing burn.
The July news silence is a blackout, not a warning. Identical four-week gap preceded the May print.
Every commercial release both quarters landed inside the quarter.
The Real Risks
Guide is flat organically
$49.5–52.5M vs. $49M in Q1 — but Q1 held only seven weeks of StereoLabs, Q2 holds thirteen. Reconstruct lidar-only sequential growth.
Margin points down
43% printed against a 35–40% framework, with Rev8 explicitly designed cheaper than Rev7. Least-discussed risk in the name.
Deals are unquantified
No dollars, units, or timing on any June agreement. The market priced them as revenue.
Valuation
A software multiple on a 43%-gross-margin hardware business burning $69M/year FCF.
Metrics that matter, ranked
1. Q3 guide. Everything. FY consensus $223M needs ~$61M/quarter in 2H. A 5-handle breaks the "incredibly strong back half."
2. GAAP gross margin. 43% held = surprise. Sub-40% = the affordability strategy is hitting early.
3. Organic lidar growth ex-StereoLabs (44% y/y in Q1).
4. Rev8 unit mix and ASP delta.
5. Any dollar-sizing of AIM/FieldAI/ARGUS.
6. Adj. EBITDA slope (-$7M Q1; only $1M better y/y on $16M more revenue).
7. Capex (~$27M trailing — FCF breakeven lags EBITDA breakeven).
8. Reaffirmation of 30–50% growth / 35–40% GM / 5–8% opex.
The Takeaway
The business is materially stronger than it was in May, and the setup is cleaner than the June top — neutral RSI, base held, no priced-for-perfection risk. But the chart can't tell you what Gianella guides. Q3 revenue and gross margin carry this print; Q2 revenue is nearly irrelevant. Balanced into Thursday, constructive into 2027. Watch margin hardest — it's the variable nobody is discussing. Not financial advice.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 8:55 pm to bayoubengals88
A bit more detail on gross margins.
Perhaps upper 30s causes a sell off and a buying opportunity?
Or, hopefully it gets overshadowed.
Gross margin is what's left of each sales dollar after the cost of building the sensor. Ouster kept 43 cents on the dollar last quarter.
But the company's own stated target is 35 to 40 cents. They beat their own goal and did not raise the goal. When management does that, they're quietly telling you 43% was a good quarter, not the new normal.
Second piece: Pacala said on the Q1 call that Rev8 was deliberately priced lower than Rev7, so customers upgrading don't take a cost hit. Cheaper sensor, same or higher build cost while the new line ramps, equals less margin per unit.
Put together: as Rev8 becomes a bigger share of what ships, margin should drift down from 43% toward the mid-to-high 30s. That's normal for a product ramp and management has been upfront about it.
The problem is expectations. Investors have been treating 43% as the floor. If Thursday prints 38%, the business is doing exactly what management described, but the stock may still sell off because the market wasn't listening. That gap between what's guided and what's assumed is the risk I'm flagging.
Perhaps upper 30s causes a sell off and a buying opportunity?
Or, hopefully it gets overshadowed.
Gross margin is what's left of each sales dollar after the cost of building the sensor. Ouster kept 43 cents on the dollar last quarter.
But the company's own stated target is 35 to 40 cents. They beat their own goal and did not raise the goal. When management does that, they're quietly telling you 43% was a good quarter, not the new normal.
Second piece: Pacala said on the Q1 call that Rev8 was deliberately priced lower than Rev7, so customers upgrading don't take a cost hit. Cheaper sensor, same or higher build cost while the new line ramps, equals less margin per unit.
Put together: as Rev8 becomes a bigger share of what ships, margin should drift down from 43% toward the mid-to-high 30s. That's normal for a product ramp and management has been upfront about it.
The problem is expectations. Investors have been treating 43% as the floor. If Thursday prints 38%, the business is doing exactly what management described, but the stock may still sell off because the market wasn't listening. That gap between what's guided and what's assumed is the risk I'm flagging.
Posted on 8/3/26 at 11:10 pm to bayoubengals88
So what you’re saying is hold the stock but sell the leverage?
If it rises over the next two days I might sell 1 and let the other ride.
If it rises over the next two days I might sell 1 and let the other ride.
This post was edited on 8/3/26 at 11:12 pm
Posted on 8/4/26 at 5:42 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
So what you’re saying is hold the stock but sell the leverage? If it rises over the next two days I might sell 1 and let the other ride.
I believe that’s a beautiful plan.
Especially if it continues to rise.
Above $44 this morning…
All of my options are 2028 with the exception of a ~1k earnings play, which I may sell into this strength.
Claude has tempered my expectations, but I’d rather it do that than simply confirm my bias.
The technical setup is outstanding, but the valuation is still fairly rich above $40…unless they can hit the bull case scenario above.
This post was edited on 8/4/26 at 5:45 am
Posted on 8/4/26 at 6:57 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
If it rises over the next two days I might sell 1 and let the other ride.
This is where I'm at. I'm too heavy in OUST as it is. If it bumps back to $48-$50, I'll trim half and let the rest ride. Maybe put the gains on calls instead of shares.
Posted on 8/4/26 at 7:55 am to ApisMellifera
I'm still holding! I may sell with the rest of yall too depending on how I feel!
Page 59 of 61
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News