re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

Bears rekt

Breakout all but confirmed with BTC sustaining >112k and ETH >2800.

There may be a retest but I’m really hoping it holds. Not sure the cycle can handle another liquidation cascade.

I sold contracts at $114K. Jumped back in the volatility trade. No changes to my long term hold of physical BTC.

lol we just wicked to 116.6k. RIP to someone.

Yup. Shorts are getting frickED.

You just asked for someone to bait shorts. Ask and you shall receive.

I know you make a good bit more money percentage wise on your Bitcoin volatility trades and with less risk trading options than I do directly trading BITX. I think the amount of each of your trades in equivalent Bitcoin is higher than what I trade as well.

The reasons I don't trade options are:

1. Virtually 100% of my incremental trades are profitable as I don't have any time constraints. I never lose on any of my unprofitable "stuck" trades because I can wait it out with discipline and patience, while I continue making other trades.

2. I don't have to worry about runaway Bitcoin price action in the wrong direction of my trade like I would with options. When Bitcoin takes a dive, I actually just incrementally "buy into a falling knife" knowing that I am averaging into lower costs and will make even more money on recoveries. I don't really know anyone else who does this, I.e., buying into a 2X falling knife. My individual BITX trades are only about 5% to 10% of my trading cash (usually 5% unless a pullback is significant), and my trading cash is only up to 25% of my portfolio, so having a trade or two deep in the red is no worry to me and I will wait until they are profitable enough to sell no matter how long it takes.

3. I think my direct trades require less of my free time than trading options would. I retired early and like to spend a lot of time with my hobbies and our friends. My trading style allows me to spend a whole day boating, fishing, hiking, site seeing etc., not paying attention to Bitcoin or my trades and if I miss a trade opportunity because I am unavailable, it doesn't matter to me. Sometimes it works in my favor to not be available, i.e., I missed a sell price point, but Bitcoin continued to rise so I ended up making more. Options would worry me more comparatively and not allow me to not pay attention as much, although I agree you can make more money leveraging options.

Of course, being exposed to a lot of BITX is very risky if there is a really significant pullback and very long recovery. Plus BITX decays about 2.5% a month when prices are flat. After so many wins, it doesn't really matter anymore. I just recently closed out my worst two trades ever from mid December 2024. They were deep in the red for months. It took 6 and 1/2 months for those two trades to become profitable and enough profit that I would close them out. The worst thing they did was they locked up about 10% of my trading cash for 6-1/2 months. In the meantime, I did a lot of damage (made a lot of profits) trading up to 90% of my trading cash.

to everyone today. Let's make some money.

Market cap getting too big for parabolic in my opinion.

We are going to bull crab for 10 years though

The ETF inflows today were obscene. About as high as I’ve seen or in that ballpark at least.

I’ll actually be more bullish on a slight pullback today than if we just rip higher. I don’t want to risk suffocating the bull market. I get nervous when it’s all gas and no brakes. Ideally, you come back to the buyers a bit now instead of inevitably coming back in a month or in 6 months when it’s a lot more painful.