re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

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Would need a steady insane amount of buy pressure that isn't retail for that. Its certainly possible

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My thoughts were, without the current political situation, we should be in the "banana zone" growth cycle through perhaps mid 2025. When Trump officially enacts that Bitcoin will be a reserve asset and if the US starts buying a set large amount of Bitcoin monthly, if that happens and if numerous other countries start doing the same thing, then there would be massive buying pressure perhaps simultaneously when Bitcoin is going into its normal down cycle. That kind of buying pressure could totally swamp the normal downturn cycle.

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When Trump officially enacts that Bitcoin will be a reserve asset and if the US starts buying a set large amount of Bitcoin monthly, if that happens and if numerous other countries start doing the same thing, then there would be massive buying pressure perhaps simultaneously when Bitcoin is going into its normal down cycle. That kind of buying pressure could totally swamp the normal downturn cycle.

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Sure, but it’s not going to happen.

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My thoughts were, without the current political situation, we should be in the "banana zone" growth cycle through perhaps mid 2025. When Trump officially enacts that Bitcoin will be a reserve asset and if the US starts buying a set large amount of Bitcoin monthly, if that happens and if numerous other countries start doing the same thing, then there would be massive buying pressure perhaps simultaneously when Bitcoin is going into its normal down cycle. That kind of buying pressure could totally swamp the normal downturn cycle.

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Mechanically, the 4 yr cycle is driven by halving supply shocks, as those dwindle in power (stock to flow shock of 50 to 25 vs 6.25 to 3.125) the market reaction to expected 4 yr ebbs and flows will diminish as well.

Couple this with increasing passive demand (etfs) and I think it's possible the 4 yr cycle dies without it becoming a sovereign reserve asset. Retail traders drove much of the past peaks and valleys. Their impact was zapped when the etfs were approved. We know they're not here in the same size anymore. They're chasing bullshite (doge market cap now exceeds Ford Motor Co, lol).

Most tradfi 60/40 investors are still completely oblivious that we've entered fiscal dominance and that a 1940s era of financial repression is here. As that dawns on them btc will chip into the bonds portion of the 60/40. I don't think the Trump admin is going expand capital controls to ring fence them into sovereign debt if they don't want to be there. He's going to let the 40 (of the 60/40) migrate into other assets (Ibit) and the Fed balance sheet will be forced to absorb diminishing ust demand.

By 2028 even if the Presidency flips I think it'll be too late. Ibit will have eaten too much of the fixed income portfolio for any reversal to be legislated. The more ibit they can stuff into pensions the less political blowback they'll receive when social security cost of living adjustments inevitably fail to stay even with (real) inflation.

If it does become a sovereign reserve asset, and I think it will even if the
US isn't the first significant mover, forget about the 4 yr cycle, it dies immediately. Personally, I hope that is delayed until the etfs gain much more pension exposure. I would much rather people benefit than governments.

Looks like some of the stocks riding the BTC up ride are a bit down in the after/pre markets. What is the opinion on how today will be for these stocks today?

Ie...I was thinking about getting some MSTR to get in some BTC exposure or more TSLA. Was leaning MSTR last night night but now not sure.

I'm more looking at short term trading options if that helps with a response.

Thank you for your response. They recent election up ride is what I'm wondering is calming down.

I guess I'm trying to learn/understand how to play that volatility. I'm not using a lot of money as I'm trying to teach myself how to. I will say the aftermarket effect is something I noticed a need to adjust for.

If you're newer and not working with a lot of money, wait for a pullback you're comfortable with, buy some physical BTC, and let it ride. While you're letting it ride watch how BTC pricing reacts to different events and circumstances and learn.

Iowa Golfer's advice is good advice. If you can buy and hold some physical Bitcoin plus one or more of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs (like IBIT or FBTC) in your retirement or brokerage accounts on pullbacks that is a good start. The Spot Bitcoin ETFs track Bitcoin's gains and losses pretty closely. Or buy MSTR, COIN or the miners if you prefer a Bitcoin related company that may or may not be a better investment than one of the Spot ETFs.

You can buy Bitcoin directly in Fidelity. Talk to Fidelity about that or look up Fidelity Crypto in your Fidelity website. However note that Fidelity currently only allows buying and selling Bitcoin within Fidelity and you can't move Bitcoin in and out of Fidelity accounts like you can with Coinbsse or your own hard wallet. Fidelity said they were working on that capability to be available this year but that was months ago. Not sure where they stand now.

I explained how I trade Bitcoin volatility in posts several months ago on pages 2119 & 2020 of this thread and probably other posts several pages before and after those. I wouldn't recommend my strategy for anyone getting started or who doesn't have money to risk. I put 5% or so of my stack at risk and will double and triple down or more when Bitcoin keeps falling. It's like buying into a falling knife. But typically, I can count on Bitcoin to recover in hours, days, or weeks to where I profit.

I'm certain that traders who spend a lot of time reading charts, studying technical indicators and news and use options do better than I do. My strategy is very simple. I only make trades based solely on Bitcoin's price. I set Bitcoin price trigger points and spend very little time trading except monitoring Bitcoin's price.

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Legendary: Back in 2019, former #Panthers OT Russell Okung demanded to get half of his $13 million contract paid in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was ~$27,000 at the time.

Now, Bitcoin is trading at +$88,000.

That $6.5 million has now turned into $20+ million.

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This was on the front page of the Rant.

Cannot prematurely post ATH's that don't exist, stopped the mo mo.

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Every politician ever makes boatloads of promises to cover the masses and they all rarely follow through with any of them. I don't really get my hopes up with presidential promises. This isn't an anti Trump post fwiw, I just don't put much stock in politicians promises.

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I agree with your sentiment. Politicians are politicians. That said, there's a lot of FU energy behind Trump II and I think an overriding principle of his second term will be to disrupt the permanent-Washington status quo. BTC could play a role in that.