re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

That is pretty big. Hopefully they follow through on a lot of that

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I wish they'd forget the religious shite and just go straight economics. Their social issues stances are abysmal. Crypto policy is not enough to win me over.

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Does NOT having mentally ill people who cut their penises off put into high ranking levels of the administration do it for you?

Preach.

BTC pinging against the top barrier of the channel. We’re at the decision point for if we remain range bound or get a bullish continuation

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Germany should be done selling by Friday (they have sold half). If we are anywhere close to 60k after they finish I am going to get much more bullish.

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Looks like you are correct. Germany accelerated their selloff and have decreased from 50,000 BTC to 4,925 BTC in just over three weeks. They sold 35,000 in the past 7 days. They should easily be finished tomorrow at the rate they were selling.

This has been a lot of heavy selling pressure that is on the verge of being 100% done. I assume Bitcoin might be rising more soon.

I expect Bitcoin to start rising again at a decent clip soon. I trade volatility so I already started trading BITO for BITX beginning on Monday and switched more shares today. I already reversed my initial trade this week. Hopefully Bitcoin gets to $60K by Monday and all of my trades will be reversed then, and I can look forward to doing more with any small dip or pullback.

EDIT: Germany sold 6458 BTC on Thursday but they received 4,169 BTC back from the 10,627 BTC they had sent to exchanges on Thursday. So Germany still has 9094 BTC left, which equates to probably 2 days left of selling.

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could you explain this strategy? I am aware of BITX's 2x correlation but I'd like to know more about your strategy in terms of BITX/BITO.

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Disclaimer: I am explaining my strategy. You can lose money trying to copy it, so proceed at your own risk if you make your own decision to try and do this. Bitcoin is unpredictable and your own emotions can get the best of you when these type trades start looking bad when Bitcoin keeps dropping and trading sideways for extended periods.

My beliefs in this Bitcoin bull cycle are that ultimately Bitcoin will be significantly higher. However, whether Bitcoin is trending up, down or sideways, I can pretty much count on it to be volatile with pullbacks and recoveries of different amplitudes. Some pullbacks are large and some are tiny. Even during a significant pullback, there are possibly smaller dips and recoveries within it. I also can't pick Bitcoin's tops and bottoms or when a positive or negative trend will begin or end. Bitcoin is basically whipsawed by a neverending onslaught of competing good news and bad news. Bitcoin's price can be manipulated by whales and governments, and "herd" action can add to the volatility.

With all of the above, all that I know is that Bitcoin is an unpredictable rollercoaster in the short term but in the long run it is going up, but just not in a straight line.

BITO and BITX are both Bitcoin futures based derivatives. BITO pays a large monthly dividend and including that dividend, it roughly tracks the price of Bitcoin. BITX roughly tracks Bitcoin at 2X. The last two months it paid a dividend. Both BITO and BITX can't guarantee a dividend and the dividend.may be larger or smaller each month. Just like regular dividend stocks on the ex-dividend date, the price of the dividend is subtracted from the stock price. Most people believe that BITO is a poor investment because just tracking its stock price alone it severely under tracks the Bitcoin Spot ETFs. But if you include the dividends it actually beats the Spot ETFs year to date. My strategy would also work trading between any Bitcoin Spot ETF and BITX.

All that I do is fairly simple. I trade only on Bitcoin's price and I don't care if Bitcoin has been trending up, down, or sideways. I do, however look for what appears to be at least a small pullback of $1K in Bitcoin's price So if Bitcoin was trading at $60K for a day or two, and the 3rd day it was trading at $59K or less, I would sell a small amount of BITO and buy BITX with those funds. Then I wait until Bitcoin recovers above $60K and reverse the trade. I haven't used any new capital but I have a little more BITO than when I started.

Sometimes Bitcoin keeps dropping. So say I made a trade when Bitcoin was $59K, and the next day, Bitcoin is at $57K and the next day Bitcoin is $55K. Well, while most Bitcoin holders are upset that Bitcoin keeps going down, I just unemotionally make two more trades selling more BITO for BITX. This is the hard part for most people as they watch their BITX drop at 2X. If the downtrend/sideways trend lasts weeks, they can't take it

Back to my scenario. I now have 3 open trades that were initiated at $59K, $57K and $55K. I set trigger points to reverse each of these trades individually when Bitcoin is $1K higher than the initial trade amount. I will reverse the most recent $55K trade when Bitcoin is higher than $56K. I will reverse the $57K trade when Bitcoin is higher than $58K, and I will reverse the $59K trade when Bitcoin is at least $60K.

It's impossible to trade exactly at my trigger points, but as long as Bitcoin is above the trigger point, I reverse the trade. For example, Bitcoin may be up another thousand dollars above my trigger points before I can reverse the trade.. I just make more on that trade.

When Bitcoin is trending up, my trades open and close faster and it is more enjoyable. But the key is this strategy works better when the volatility amplitude is higher and the price swings are more frequent. In April, Bitcoin dropped $9K over the month, but the volatility was great. In May Bitcoin went up and there was good volatility. My trades went well in both of those months. June saw a $12K drop in Bitcoin coupled with low volatility and low amplitude price swings so I didn't fare as well.

Sometimes I have open "stranded" trades near the end of the month that I just close out and reverse those trades. The reason is that I want to have maximum BITO before the ex-dividend date. If I take a loss on a stranded open trade, but I'm still overall positive for the month, I have met my goal.

My strategy is to take the BITO dividends in cash, but using no new funds my goal is to in essence create my own BITO dividend trading between BITO and BITX as I have described.

If you try my strategy, just know it is risky and can be painful to endure in extended Bitcoin downtrends and sideways price action coupled with low volatility. So far I am happy with my strategy. You can certainly lose money trying it, so it will be at your own risk if you make your own decision to do this.

It takes a lot of ice in my veins at times, plus you have to get used to the strategy and I have been tweaking it. I started with only $5K pullbacks and recoveries, but I have steadily decreased the amounts that start a trade and my recovery trigger points got steadily smaller as Bitcoin volatility dropped.

This strategy will become obsolete if Bitcoin volatility gets too small, plus it will be a bad strategy after Bitcoin peaks in this current cycle. If Bitcoin were to remain basically flat and trade sideways for an extended time you will gradually lose money due to decay that occurs in all derivatives.

I do take BITO's large dividends in cash, but other BITO holders like to reinvest their dividends. My goal each month is to take the dividend in cash and try to create more BITO shares that amount to an even bigger artificially created dividend.

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If I were to do this I'd do this with options.

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Good point. You can definitely do much better with options and with less capital and less risks if you know what you are doing. I'm just addicted to that large BITO dividend and my strategy works for me. My BITO shares and cash pile have grown nicely so I am pretty happy with my strategy so far.

There's always going to be positive and negative news with Bitcoin. It's non-ending.

Pressure from Germany was a 100% sell of their Bitcoin. With Mt Gox, it's only $9B of BTC being returned to some of the original Bitcoin traders that liked Bitcoin 10 years ago. I bet no more than half of that is sold and it will be spread out much longer compared to the Germany dump.

The end of the 3rd quarter this year, the distribution of $16 Billion in cash by FTX will be paying prior Bitcoin traders with cash. I bet probably 1/2 of that money flows back to Bitcoin. About the same time, there will be many more Institutions finishing their due diligence and putting tremendous buying pressure on Bitcoin.

So the FTX inflows should swamp the Mt Gox outflows, but that starts near the end of September. Bitcoin even thrived through the GBTC outflows.

Over time, Bitcoin goes up. It only takes patience. If you learn to trade Bitcoin volatility you don't mind all the noise of negative and positive news. I was a long time fully invested holder of GBTC riding it up and down with large swings. I no longer just hold (except my actual Bitcoin). You can do better than just holding a Spot ETF or BITO if you learn to trade Bitcoin volatility either with options or a method like mine.

I'm typically trading 5% to 10% of my BITO at any given time. I could do the same with IBIT, FBTC or any other Spot Bitcoin ETF if I wanted to. My method would work with any stock that has a corresponding 2X derivative. For example it would work between NVDA and NVDL.