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Started By
Message
Odds of a recession and severity
Posted on 3/22/23 at 4:53 am
Posted on 3/22/23 at 4:53 am
What do you think the odds of a recession are?
If there is a recession, what do you think the duration and severity is?
No recession? Short and mild? Long and mild? Short and severe? Long and severe?
If there is a recession, what do you think the duration and severity is?
No recession? Short and mild? Long and mild? Short and severe? Long and severe?
10
Posted on 3/22/23 at 6:41 am to themasterpater
quote:
What do you think the odds of a recession are?
Low. Lots of people will scream recession, but recessions are almost always caused by unexpected shocks to the economy. I don’t see anything specific indicating a shock to the economy, except banking issues. If we can circumvent adverse financial market conditions, odds of no recession increase.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 6:45 am to themasterpater
quote:
What do you think the odds of a recession are?
100% in time, but I suspect you’re asking about the odds of a recession in the next 12 months specifically, which is a different story.
I think it helps to consider that since 1900, the odds of a recession in any given year are about 25%. I know just enough to know that any opinion much stronger/weaker than that is typically wrong.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 6:50 am to themasterpater
80%, 2 years, and severe. If I had to guess. We’ve been squeezing into this spot for the better part of six years. You can count on our overlords to do the wrong things at the wrong times, 100% of the time. If they kick the can again and make it mild, we’ll double dip recession which may be good for politicians but not for the rest of us.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 6:55 am to themasterpater
The longer they keep putting band aids on the sucking chest wound that is our economic situation, the worse the recession will be.
But it’s coming. I have little doubt.
And this time the fed won’t be able to play kick the inflationary can down the road.
We deserve all the economic pain we will endure.
But it’s coming. I have little doubt.
And this time the fed won’t be able to play kick the inflationary can down the road.
We deserve all the economic pain we will endure.
This post was edited on 3/22/23 at 6:56 am
Posted on 3/22/23 at 7:30 am to themasterpater
This guy from 1875 said 2023 should be a buying year. He’s been pretty solid so far.
LINK /
LINK /
Posted on 3/22/23 at 7:36 am to themasterpater
Recession has occurred and is ongoing now. The severity is all up to the emotional response in accepting the truth and moving ahead in life without bogging down in selfish, negative behavior.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 7:45 am to BestBanker
This actually a good perspective that I wasn't expecting
Posted on 3/22/23 at 7:48 am to Grooler
quote:
recessions are almost always caused by unexpected shocks
quote:
I don’t see anything specific indicating a shock to the economy
That's kind of a necessary component of being "unexpected", isn't it?
Posted on 3/22/23 at 8:04 am to themasterpater
It’s ok baw
Uncle Pootie is gonna save us with his nukes
Uncle Pootie is gonna save us with his nukes
Posted on 3/22/23 at 8:12 am to themasterpater
IIRC, the last 8 out of 9 times the feds increased the interest rates, we went into a recession. The only time we avoided it was in the 90s, can't remember the exact year off the top of my head.
Not saying one way or another, just thought that was interesting.
Not saying one way or another, just thought that was interesting.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 8:17 am to joshnorris14
quote:
That's kind of a necessary component of being "unexpected", isn't it?
Sure, if you’re being pedantic. Shocks can unfold over different durations. See GFC vs covid recessions.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 8:28 am to Shepherd88
Nifty
Posted on 3/22/23 at 8:30 am to themasterpater
shite, I thought we were in one already.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 10:12 am to tigerfoot
I agree we are in one. How long and severe do you think it will be.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 10:51 am to themasterpater
This is the long winter where in 20 years you’ll wonder how things ever got so bad
The good news is the democrats are gonna redefine poverty
The good news is the democrats are gonna redefine poverty
Posted on 3/22/23 at 10:53 am to Grooler
quote:
Low. Lots of people will scream recession, but recessions are almost always caused by unexpected shocks to the economy. I don’t see anything specific indicating a shock to the economy, except banking issues. If we can circumvent adverse financial market conditions, odds of no recession increase.
This is the dumbest thing I have ever read in my life.
OP- It is 100% guaranteed. Anyone with an ounce of knowledge of central banking and history of rate hikes will agree.
Those that don't agree have no historical knowledge and don't understand how the financial world operates at even a high school level.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 11:42 am to themasterpater
quote:I dont know fancy financial terms. But in my humble opinion, we will be here indefinitely, I just do not see any govt official getting out of the way and letting the market fail....they dont mind destroying us as long as they are reelected.
I agree we are in one. How long and severe do you think it will be.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 11:48 am to tigerfoot
Banks in trouble, we hear about massive layoffs every week, housing has already slowed down significantly, it feels like it's coming. In fact, I think if republicans were running everything right now in these same circumstances, the media would have already declared us to be in recession on the way to depression.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 12:08 pm to deeprig9
WE ARE IN A RECESSION NOW
Let's hope we don't get into a depression.
Let's hope we don't get into a depression.
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