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re: New to the Forum, any other biotech guys on here????
Posted on 8/13/15 at 4:55 pm to lsutraderman
Posted on 8/13/15 at 4:55 pm to lsutraderman
quote:
LINK
Your link is all about how it's likely to get harder for patients to get access to orphan drugs. It is even titled "Patient access to orphan drugs faces new set of challenges". From the link: quote:
The growing numbers of orphan drugs in the market and the high cost of certain orphan treatments have led to a reconsideration of payer reimbursement policies.
quote:
Ten years ago the conventional wisdom among policymakers was that because orphan drugs target small populations their impact on the pharmacy budget was fairly limited. Currently, payers look at orphans differently in light of more approvals, expansion of indications, and higher prices. There is a trend toward much higher patient cost sharing, more imposition of conditions of reimbursement, and in a few cases outright formulary exclusions. Exclusions generally did not happen 10 years ago.
quote:
In summary, we are beginning to see some resistance to high prices of certain drugs. We can expect more push-back on the part of purchasers, starting in the public sector and spreading to the private sector. Furthermore, orphans are now part of the debate on pricing and whether the cost is justified by the benefit.
In light of the fact that exorbitant treatment prices are likely to face increasing scrutiny, how can you say
quote:?
pricing isn't remotely a concern of mine
1
Posted on 8/13/15 at 5:24 pm to Korkstand
Jesus Christ Korkstand, I really thought you were one of the more intelligent posters on this board how many times have I said more than likely bluebird will be acquired before ever generating significant revenue as bluebird.
You really aren't as intelligent as I thought, maybe on some innovative stuff like Tesla but let me repeat again. GILEAD PURCHASE PHARMASETT BEFORE IT WAS EVER APPROVED, AND RISKS GALORE, AND THEY PAID $10B AND THAT NOW IS THE BULK OF THE NEAR $200B IN MARKET CAP
pharmasett = BLUE today GILD= whoever may buy blue
gild today is making the money, not pharmasett.....got it chief? Like I said, have you ever heard of IPF? The average poster on here hasn't it cost intermune under 5 cents a pill to produce and sells for $100k+ is that unethical? Sure, did that stop roche from buying intermune out and paying $8 billion dollars for no revenue????? no it didn't.
Of course there's pushback nobody wants to pay a ton but did you see THIS LINE IN MY ARTICLE
"There are relatively few outright denials of coverage, although more in Europe."
Its unethical to deny people cures over money, god man you're just awful at this, Glybera is approved and getting $1M per treatment today, is that stopping sure from printing money? no it isn't. Just stop commenting you seriously have no insight on this industry in any way, sigma and no fox are pretty much the only guys with any inisight, just come back in 12 months and thank me if you bought blue, if you didn't just stop posting
PS just FYI $2.5M if they get that is absolutely jack squat in comparison to lifetime costs of treating SCD, read up on what blood transfusions and hospitalizations cost, the average SCD patient bluebird said costs the system $5-$10M in a lifetime
esp severe SCD bc it involves literally weekly transfusions, regular SCD doesn't cost much
Here's an article from 2009 that sickle cell patients cost us $1.1B a year
LINK
You really aren't as intelligent as I thought, maybe on some innovative stuff like Tesla but let me repeat again. GILEAD PURCHASE PHARMASETT BEFORE IT WAS EVER APPROVED, AND RISKS GALORE, AND THEY PAID $10B AND THAT NOW IS THE BULK OF THE NEAR $200B IN MARKET CAP
pharmasett = BLUE today GILD= whoever may buy blue
gild today is making the money, not pharmasett.....got it chief? Like I said, have you ever heard of IPF? The average poster on here hasn't it cost intermune under 5 cents a pill to produce and sells for $100k+ is that unethical? Sure, did that stop roche from buying intermune out and paying $8 billion dollars for no revenue????? no it didn't.
Of course there's pushback nobody wants to pay a ton but did you see THIS LINE IN MY ARTICLE
"There are relatively few outright denials of coverage, although more in Europe."
Its unethical to deny people cures over money, god man you're just awful at this, Glybera is approved and getting $1M per treatment today, is that stopping sure from printing money? no it isn't. Just stop commenting you seriously have no insight on this industry in any way, sigma and no fox are pretty much the only guys with any inisight, just come back in 12 months and thank me if you bought blue, if you didn't just stop posting
PS just FYI $2.5M if they get that is absolutely jack squat in comparison to lifetime costs of treating SCD, read up on what blood transfusions and hospitalizations cost, the average SCD patient bluebird said costs the system $5-$10M in a lifetime
esp severe SCD bc it involves literally weekly transfusions, regular SCD doesn't cost much
Here's an article from 2009 that sickle cell patients cost us $1.1B a year
LINK
This post was edited on 8/13/15 at 5:44 pm
Posted on 8/13/15 at 5:33 pm to lsutraderman
Korstand read up
What Is orphan drug status
"One type of incentive is the orphan drug status, which provides tax reductions and the exclusive right to develop the cure for a specific condition for a period of seven years to companies attempting to cure rare diseases."
Bluebird has orphan designation for a few things......
What Is orphan drug status
"One type of incentive is the orphan drug status, which provides tax reductions and the exclusive right to develop the cure for a specific condition for a period of seven years to companies attempting to cure rare diseases."
Bluebird has orphan designation for a few things......
Posted on 8/13/15 at 6:06 pm to lsutraderman
quote:Well jesus christ lsutraderman, the potential to earn money still has to be there for it to get acquired, and the acquiring company will ask themselves a very similar set of questions that I am asking you, and many more. And the direction the insurance companies are moving is a very big question mark that must be considered.
Jesus Christ Korkstand, I really thought you were one of the more intelligent posters on this board how many times have I said more than likely bluebird will be acquired before ever generating significant revenue as bluebird.
quote:Well frick you too.
You really aren't as intelligent as I thought
quote:
gild today is making the money, not pharmasett.....got it chief
I understand how it works, chief. Do you? quote:I believe the unethical part is asking for exorbitant sums in the first place, especially when a considerable chunk of the cost of development is covered by taxpayers. Insurance companies may not outright deny coverage, but they will certainly work to lower costs if the article you linked is any indication.
Its unethical to deny people cures over money
quote:Nor have I claimed to! I'm just asking questions and putting another view out there to counteract your overly-excited delivery.
Just stop commenting you seriously have no insight on this industry in any way
quote:Your numbers don't add up. If $1.1B/year is accurate, spread across 70,000 patients, that's about $16k/year on average. There's no way to fiddle those numbers to add up to $10M over a lifetime on average as you claim. There is even a quote from your link:
PS just FYI $2.5M if they get that is absolutely jack squat in comparison to lifetime costs of treating SCD, read up on what blood transfusions and hospitalizations cost, the average SCD patient costs the system north of $10M in a lifetime
Here's an article from 2009 that sickle cell patients cost us $1.1B a year
quote:You're off by an order of magnitude. Or are you only counting the severe cases that would qualify for bluebird's treatment? In that case, what fraction of that $1.1B/year do you expect them to capture? It must be a significant share if you think they should be valued around $10B.
"For an average patient with sickle cell disease reaching age 45, total undiscounted health care costs were estimated to reach $953,640,"
Posted on 8/13/15 at 6:11 pm to Korkstand
Dude there's people with SCD all over the place, they're fine, they take a few pills, and maybe every now and then get a transfusion if it gets bad. People with severe SCD are in and out of hospitals almost weekly, Bluebird mentioned their costs are between $5-10M over a lifetime, transfusions + hospitalizations + in home care costs an absolute fortune.
Secondly OMG no pricing is not a concern bc say for whatever reason its only $500k, thats a ton of money and the valuation is way over today's market cap, you're trying to figure out the max valuation for the company and I'm telling you i could care less bc I only care about the matter of does this stuff work, if it does its easily worth 2-3x, easily and that means realistically its worth 10-15x that number to the buyer. If Bluebird say ok we're gonna go at this alone and not sell to anyone, then I would begin to have pricing concerns but as it stands, they have not said that and I believe pricing will be a concern for the acquiring company which would be hilarious if its GILD like I think it will be bc they have the cash and lack of innovation that needs a jump start bc then all the guys on this board will instantly become long BLUE as part of their GILD stake..
Whats GILD worth, say $200B and whats BLUE worth $5B? There is an enormous gap between the valuations and when BLUE is $15B on science alone if it works, I just don't care about the pricing scheme on a product thats years away from market all I care about is december data update, if thats good it skyrockets to $300 prob, look at what jan 2016 and beyond calls are pricing, they're pricing a massive re-pricing......if data holds up
Secondly OMG no pricing is not a concern bc say for whatever reason its only $500k, thats a ton of money and the valuation is way over today's market cap, you're trying to figure out the max valuation for the company and I'm telling you i could care less bc I only care about the matter of does this stuff work, if it does its easily worth 2-3x, easily and that means realistically its worth 10-15x that number to the buyer. If Bluebird say ok we're gonna go at this alone and not sell to anyone, then I would begin to have pricing concerns but as it stands, they have not said that and I believe pricing will be a concern for the acquiring company which would be hilarious if its GILD like I think it will be bc they have the cash and lack of innovation that needs a jump start bc then all the guys on this board will instantly become long BLUE as part of their GILD stake..
Whats GILD worth, say $200B and whats BLUE worth $5B? There is an enormous gap between the valuations and when BLUE is $15B on science alone if it works, I just don't care about the pricing scheme on a product thats years away from market all I care about is december data update, if thats good it skyrockets to $300 prob, look at what jan 2016 and beyond calls are pricing, they're pricing a massive re-pricing......if data holds up
This post was edited on 8/13/15 at 6:16 pm
Posted on 8/13/15 at 7:35 pm to lsutraderman
Posted on 8/13/15 at 7:45 pm to NaturalBeam
god another guy who has no idea about anything, can I just inform all you "pump and dump guys" that its literally next to impossible to pump a $4.5B market cap company and even if one was to try it wouldn't be to a message board full of amateur investors with a demographic of probably sub $100k annual incomes. That's just reality. Pump and Dumps happen in the OTC in sub $100M market caps that are easy to manipulate, lol BLUE is bigger than tons of these junk oil names I see a lot of you in.
Good lord, why do non-biotech guys even open a thread about biotech? You guys clearly show how small minded and uniformed you all are everytime you post. The only 2 guys who engaged with science were NOFOX and Sigma, god man its sad bc most of the people I worked with always made fun of me for going to LSU for my undergrad, its not too big in the science world like it is other fields, but man no wonder it has such a reputation of mediocrity in the real world. People would always tease me about being from the backwoods, my goodness the average poster in this thread is just ridiculously misinformed on the market from what a pump and dump constitutes to what earnings means in a development stage company to what a buyout is worth in relation to other similar companies and worst of all they all refuse to sit back and learn new things or understand. The thing is if you don't understand something, its better to not comment than open your big mouth and look silly, case in point the guy comparing sovaldi to an orphan drug.....or now mr pump and dump accuser.....just pathetic really
Good luck with Ramsey 99% of you, the few guys in here who understand science are cool as could be and the convos we had this afternoon are awesome, id love to have more, good lord can we make an invite only thread sigma and nofox? The bulk of these guys are just WOW
Good lord, why do non-biotech guys even open a thread about biotech? You guys clearly show how small minded and uniformed you all are everytime you post. The only 2 guys who engaged with science were NOFOX and Sigma, god man its sad bc most of the people I worked with always made fun of me for going to LSU for my undergrad, its not too big in the science world like it is other fields, but man no wonder it has such a reputation of mediocrity in the real world. People would always tease me about being from the backwoods, my goodness the average poster in this thread is just ridiculously misinformed on the market from what a pump and dump constitutes to what earnings means in a development stage company to what a buyout is worth in relation to other similar companies and worst of all they all refuse to sit back and learn new things or understand. The thing is if you don't understand something, its better to not comment than open your big mouth and look silly, case in point the guy comparing sovaldi to an orphan drug.....or now mr pump and dump accuser.....just pathetic really
Good luck with Ramsey 99% of you, the few guys in here who understand science are cool as could be and the convos we had this afternoon are awesome, id love to have more, good lord can we make an invite only thread sigma and nofox? The bulk of these guys are just WOW
This post was edited on 8/13/15 at 7:51 pm
Posted on 8/13/15 at 7:50 pm to lsutraderman
Regardless of anyone's income or financial prowess, particularly as it relates to a vaguely understood sector, your inability to communicate effectively, in addition to your apparent social ineptness, is more of a stain on LSU's reputation than a couple of posters on a message board fricking with you.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 7:54 pm to lsutraderman
People keep messing with you because you're a raging lunatic who lacks any inkling of emotional intelligence & awareness
Posted on 8/13/15 at 7:57 pm to Louie T
Im not a raging lunatic but I'm tired of the uninformed people constantly commenting on something they have literally no business commenting on. Jesus, the thread is seeking out biotech guys and none of you are that besides sigma and no fox, it would tick you off too if you kept trying to have to explain whatever it is you do for a living to a bunch of people who thought they understood it more than you.
Sigma and NOFOX never once made a silly comment like the bulk of the other posters, i seriously may start trolling all you oil bulls aka shameful investors with silly comments on stuff i don't even understand.
Sigma and NOFOX never once made a silly comment like the bulk of the other posters, i seriously may start trolling all you oil bulls aka shameful investors with silly comments on stuff i don't even understand.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 7:58 pm to Louie T
It's bothersome that people like this work in research.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:02 pm to Lou Pai
Ya truly bothersome, intelligent people who get frustrated with less intelligent people interfering with their work. You know when you're at work if anyone came in and was lacking information on your job in every way imaginable, you'd lose your mind too trying to constantly tell them why they were wrong.......I don't have to do that with anyone with a science background, but with you other guys aka the peanut gallery its just repeated explanations about things you just don't grasp, good lord if you don't know the difference between the lentivrial vector and the AAV vector aka the discussion me and no fox and sigma had earlier YOU HAVE ZERO BUSINESS IN THIS THREAD, ZERO
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:02 pm to lsutraderman
quote:
i seriously may start trolling
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:02 pm to lsutraderman
It is quite obvious you don't have the psychological wherewithal to be a good investor. You are unbelievably clouded by your own biases and emotions. Your "hahahah O&G sucks!" comments and statements about XOM making people go bankrupt affirm this.
You may very well be an expert in this field, which is important, but your credibility is hampered by this reality (and your command of the English language).
You may very well be an expert in this field, which is important, but your credibility is hampered by this reality (and your command of the English language).
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:08 pm to lsutraderman
quote:
Dude there's people with SCD all over the place, they're fine, they take a few pills, and maybe every now and then get a transfusion if it gets bad. People with severe SCD are in and out of hospitals almost weekly, Bluebird mentioned their costs are between $5-10M over a lifetime, transfusions + hospitalizations + in home care costs an absolute fortune.
So a niche of a niche is the target market? Got it.
quote:
Whats GILD worth, say $200B and whats BLUE worth $5B? There is an enormous gap between the valuations and when BLUE is $15B on science alone if it works, I just don't care about the pricing scheme on a product thats years away from market all I care about is december data update, if thats good it skyrockets to $300 prob, look at what jan 2016 and beyond calls are pricing, they're pricing a massive re-pricing......if data holds up
You just confirmed what everybody has been saying. No GTFO with this "I love science" bullshite.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:10 pm to Lou Pai
Did I ever say XOM was going bankrupt, but goodness the small caps highly levered are going to start blowing up, oil probably never goes back to $70 again as our dollar rips higher. Do you even follow the DXY it probably rips to 125 if we ever raise rates, think about that for a second, rates are at all time lows and oil is at lows, my god if we raise rates, RIP to all you oil bulls $30 oil is prob the norm. The concept of peak oil was just silly and $100 oil is one of the biggest jokes of all time, oil is so abundant its disgusting, $30-50 oil is prob here to stay, now you wanna hate on the biotech sector which has pretty much been the only bright spot in the market this year while the SPY has been flat and oil has just died?
obviously large cap oil companies XOM,CVX,COP aren't going anywhere, they have a ton of cash but their earnings will crumble if oil stays here over time, that was an awful quarter CVX pumped out last quarter, embarrassing really. Meanwhile all these biotech with no revenue or EPS are soaring, and you wanna make fun of the one guy on this entire forum who actually knows how to dissect these names???? LOL oooooook all the oil analysis you guys have poured into this forum has led to what? multiple bag holders in oil names, its cool though, i don't invest in that junk the bulk of the posters here do all I can do is sit and watch the destruction in highly levered E & P names while my junk biotech just go up on their data which I can interpret
obviously large cap oil companies XOM,CVX,COP aren't going anywhere, they have a ton of cash but their earnings will crumble if oil stays here over time, that was an awful quarter CVX pumped out last quarter, embarrassing really. Meanwhile all these biotech with no revenue or EPS are soaring, and you wanna make fun of the one guy on this entire forum who actually knows how to dissect these names???? LOL oooooook all the oil analysis you guys have poured into this forum has led to what? multiple bag holders in oil names, its cool though, i don't invest in that junk the bulk of the posters here do all I can do is sit and watch the destruction in highly levered E & P names while my junk biotech just go up on their data which I can interpret
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:14 pm to lsutraderman
TigerDebaiter you literally define the shameful investors i outlined, no a niche of a niche is called an orphan indication and at 5-7x peak sales its worth $15B-20B if data is solid in december which it probably will be assuming the data we have just holds up and no freak incidences pop up.
shameful man, just shameful, no business commenting in this thread either
shameful man, just shameful, no business commenting in this thread either
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:35 pm to lsutraderman
quote:
Did I ever say XOM was going bankrupt
No, but I'm pretty sure you said on here that XOM would drive some people into bankruptcy.
quote:
Do you even follow the DXY it probably rips to 125 if we ever raise rates, think about that for a second, rates are at all time lows and oil is at lows, my god if we raise rates, RIP to all you oil bulls $30 oil is prob the norm. The concept of peak oil was just silly and $100 oil is one of the biggest jokes of all time, oil is so abundant its disgusting, $30-50 oil is prob here to stay
You have a superficial, surface-level understanding of the supply-demand picture, as well as monetary policy. quote:
that was an awful quarter CVX pumped out last quarter, embarrassing really.
Embarrassing? Who the hell says stuff like this?
quote:
while my junk biotech just go up on their data which I can interpret
You seem to be a retail "trader" banking on the prospects of a big announcement this fall.
Again, you may be the 21st century's version of James Watson in your ability to digest the information as far as I know, but you are showing some pretty ridiculous emotional bias. You may be a scientist, but that doesn't change the rules of what makes a good investor.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:37 pm to lsutraderman
quote:
is called an orphan
I get it. But,ultimately there still has to be a market for it - unless you are pumping and dumping. Whatever scale that takes place at.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 8:39 pm to TigerDeBaiter
yea my bad understanding of markets like how i mentioned XLRN earlier in this thread and it popped 15% today? when was the last time you nailed a call like that on here?
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