- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: New to the Forum, any other biotech guys on here????
Posted on 8/13/15 at 11:37 pm to Korkstand
Posted on 8/13/15 at 11:37 pm to Korkstand
Korkstand, you need to learn how to read an options chain and what type of move is being priced in. It's a gigantic move, bios are weak today, especially CAR T, KITE was down 9% today but thats not a good CAR T name, they had a patient die now. If bluebird misses on data this dec, its goodbye to the XBI and all small cap bios bc frankly all of them ran in size after blue data last december. All of them, frankly BLUE data last december triggered the biotech bull market you're seeing in small caps today, look at every small caps chart from last december till now, they can all thank blue for the best data seen in years
God man you still don't get it, none of those patient numbers matter, none of them. GEVA was acquired for 5000 patients at $8.4B, 5000 patients worldwide, BLUE has way way way way more patients than that in beta thal alone, consider SCD a bonus, easily worth $15B, easily if data holds up I really can't get this through to you bc you don't know biotech valuations. Where I worked IPF, is nominal in size and esbriet is a $100k drug and Roche bought intermune for $8B+
There is no way to value this stuff other than its gold if indeed its successful, are you more interested now bc sigma said blue seemed interesting?????? Look up the BLUE chain and tell me what 2017 $290 calls are priced at? They're expensive as could be right? You know why 150% OTM calls are priced like that? Bc a buyout is coming. If bluebird misses on this data, it prob sheds 50% so does every other biotech that fails but the reality is bluebird has $900M in cash so its not a complete zero, and in theory they have cures on beta thal thus far so even if someone develops a bad side effect it more than likely slams the stock but then they begin work on tweaking what happened and attempting to go at it again.
There's obviously giant risks in the first successful gene therapy for beta thal and SCD ever, this isn't a slam dunk, but so far the data has been nothing short of spectacular for 18 months, so science guys the world over are having raging hard ons about the name, I came here to discuss multiple names but it turned into a bluebird thread
I have not done any modeling whatsoever on potential patient numbers and frankly Ill say it again I do not care, if a POS like GEVA can get $8.4B, blue if successful is worth infinitely more bc their vector has limitless potential to cure things. You think Im kidding, limitless is a real world if theyc sure this bc then you're talking beta thal,SCD, and ALD cures.....3 cures from one vector.....you'd have to respect it
again only time will tell
honestly why do you care so much? you're not a science guy, you have no idea wtf me and sigma are discussing, this clearly isn't a name that should be in your portfolio but you keep responding bc you clearly think I'm intelligent and probably bought it or wish to buy it, right? I don't blame you, I've made a pretty good case here and sigma sorta agreed with me so you got 2 smart guys liking a name, Id wanna buy it to
:bow:
God man you still don't get it, none of those patient numbers matter, none of them. GEVA was acquired for 5000 patients at $8.4B, 5000 patients worldwide, BLUE has way way way way more patients than that in beta thal alone, consider SCD a bonus, easily worth $15B, easily if data holds up I really can't get this through to you bc you don't know biotech valuations. Where I worked IPF, is nominal in size and esbriet is a $100k drug and Roche bought intermune for $8B+
There is no way to value this stuff other than its gold if indeed its successful, are you more interested now bc sigma said blue seemed interesting?????? Look up the BLUE chain and tell me what 2017 $290 calls are priced at? They're expensive as could be right? You know why 150% OTM calls are priced like that? Bc a buyout is coming. If bluebird misses on this data, it prob sheds 50% so does every other biotech that fails but the reality is bluebird has $900M in cash so its not a complete zero, and in theory they have cures on beta thal thus far so even if someone develops a bad side effect it more than likely slams the stock but then they begin work on tweaking what happened and attempting to go at it again.
There's obviously giant risks in the first successful gene therapy for beta thal and SCD ever, this isn't a slam dunk, but so far the data has been nothing short of spectacular for 18 months, so science guys the world over are having raging hard ons about the name, I came here to discuss multiple names but it turned into a bluebird thread
I have not done any modeling whatsoever on potential patient numbers and frankly Ill say it again I do not care, if a POS like GEVA can get $8.4B, blue if successful is worth infinitely more bc their vector has limitless potential to cure things. You think Im kidding, limitless is a real world if theyc sure this bc then you're talking beta thal,SCD, and ALD cures.....3 cures from one vector.....you'd have to respect it
again only time will tell
honestly why do you care so much? you're not a science guy, you have no idea wtf me and sigma are discussing, this clearly isn't a name that should be in your portfolio but you keep responding bc you clearly think I'm intelligent and probably bought it or wish to buy it, right? I don't blame you, I've made a pretty good case here and sigma sorta agreed with me so you got 2 smart guys liking a name, Id wanna buy it to
:bow:This post was edited on 8/13/15 at 11:40 pm
3
Posted on 8/13/15 at 11:43 pm to lsutraderman
quote:Do you really STILL not get that nobody really accused you of being a pumper? Your delivery just makes you come across that way. Half the posts in this thread were people telling you in one way or another to work on your people skills, so take your own advice: sit back and learn and understand. You keep insulting everyone in this thread who isn't talking about what you want them to talk about, not even taking 2 seconds to think that maybe (just maybe) if a couple dozen people tell you the same thing, they just might be right, and you would be wise to consider it.
these guys stormed me with nonsense about being a pumper, like I could pump a $5B company on a silly LSU message board where the average guy isn't even worth $100k, yea great target market for a pump job.
This thread could have easily (EASILY) gone exactly as you planned, if only you had been more polite to the first couple of posters on page 1 who were (quite obviously) kidding with you about pumping and dumping. Instead, you jumped straight to calling them ignorant. You brought this all on yourself.
Posted on 8/13/15 at 11:54 pm to Korkstand
korkstand, again I really don't care what anyone has to say unless its in some way related to science.
Im here looking to chat with people about a few names that interest me and its clear there's only a handful of guys capable of discussing said names
speaking of Sigma and NOFOX , have you guys looked at any of the names I mentioned Sigma?????
XON - my next fav after blue, monster potential in synthetic bio
RTRX - thiola monopoly
CEMP - antibiotic buyout candidate
TTPH - same as cemp, better safety profile
ANAC - small molecule foot cream, up 200% this month buyout coming
JUNO - best car t data
ZFGN - prader willie syndrome, i think has monster potential
XLRN - beta that
AFMD
TRIL
RDHL
PIRS
The last 4 are microcaps I think have the potential to grow into real companies one day bc they got really interesting targets esp PIRS I think anticalins have big big potential and they run the whole space
Id love to pick your brains on any of those names if you have any interest in them
Im here looking to chat with people about a few names that interest me and its clear there's only a handful of guys capable of discussing said names
speaking of Sigma and NOFOX , have you guys looked at any of the names I mentioned Sigma?????
XON - my next fav after blue, monster potential in synthetic bio
RTRX - thiola monopoly
CEMP - antibiotic buyout candidate
TTPH - same as cemp, better safety profile
ANAC - small molecule foot cream, up 200% this month buyout coming
JUNO - best car t data
ZFGN - prader willie syndrome, i think has monster potential
XLRN - beta that
AFMD
TRIL
RDHL
PIRS
The last 4 are microcaps I think have the potential to grow into real companies one day bc they got really interesting targets esp PIRS I think anticalins have big big potential and they run the whole space
Id love to pick your brains on any of those names if you have any interest in them
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:04 am to lsutraderman
quote:
ook up the BLUE chain and tell me what 2017 $290 calls are priced at? They're expensive as could be right? You know why 150% OTM calls are priced like that? Bc a buyout is coming.
If a buyout was coming, that would be priced into the underlying share price. Sounds like this name is generally hinging on a successful announcement later this fall.
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:07 am to Lou Pai
god man, ok so options are juiced up to the moon for no reason at all, makes sense. They're juiced bc if the data holds in dec, the stock jumps to $250-300 and then all bets are off a bidding war probably ensues with all the large cap names seeking the next big sector in the market: gene therapy that works
GILD,BIIB,CELG,BMRN will all be making bids if data holds in dec, mark my words, thats why 2017 calls are priced in that manner. $350/share isn't even $15B thats peanuts when you look at what PCYC got $20B for earlier this year.....
GILD,BIIB,CELG,BMRN will all be making bids if data holds in dec, mark my words, thats why 2017 calls are priced in that manner. $350/share isn't even $15B thats peanuts when you look at what PCYC got $20B for earlier this year.....
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:09 am to lsutraderman
Not trying to flame, but out of curiosity, 1) what do you think is driving the downturn in Bluebird stock prices over the last couple of months? 2) What makes this MegaTal gene editing platform more efficient than say CRISPR? The Bluebird site does not explicitly say. 3) Will Bluebird move away from monogenic approaches to disease? Their Starbeam study seems a bit too simplistic. Although, I must admit I do not know anything about CCALD.
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:20 am to lsutraderman
quote:You're right, I guess I don't get it if the size of the market means absolutely dick.
God man you still don't get it, none of those patient numbers matter, none of them.
quote:I've been interested/intrigued from the get-go, but the most interesting part of this thread is easily your personality, and not necessarily in a good way.
are you more interested now bc sigma said blue seemed interesting??????
quote:I don't know, I guess I have a bad habit of trying to help people. Kind of like you, right? I mean why else would you stay in this thread if not to help people learn and/or make money? You and I just have different approaches to helping people, that's all.
honestly why do you care so much?
quote:There are those people skills shining through. I understand much more than you think I do, but you can't help but think I'm totally ignorant.
you're not a science guy, you have no idea wtf me and sigma are discussing
quote:More people skills here. I keep responding because I'm still trying to figure out if this is how you treat people in real life. If you and I were having this conversation face to face, I'm not sure whether I would feel sorry for you or punch you in your cocky-arse mouth.
you keep responding bc you clearly think I'm intelligent and probably bought it or wish to buy it, right?
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:21 am to lsutraderman
quote:
god man, ok so options are juiced up to the moon for no reason at all, makes sense.
Did I say that? You could say that they are a very compelling takeout target, pending the results of the data. Implying that a buyout is imminent on a stock prior to any announcement of an acquisition is simply irresponsible, and could mislead others with advice that is akin to gambling. But you would rather just carry on with your apoplectic, insecure trope.
I don't follow the space at all, but I would imagine that options for these types of names are insane, merely due to the fact that they are tremendously volatile.
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:26 am to BioBobcat
BioBobcat, Im exhausted explaining bluebird you can go back and read the thread, me and sigma had some pretty good Q&Q going on.
The downturn in share price is really just overall weakness in bioland look where the IBB and XBI were recently and where they are now? Traders are so shortsighted and BLUE has no catalyst till DEC. They just did an offering at $170 so all supply issues were taken care of on that, and now its floundering with the overall bio markets.I think anytime you get a quality bio sub offering price you got a steal, this is a good 25% below the offering.
I think also car t space has been hot all year, today KITE had a patient die, granted that patient was already in awful shape and probably didn't die bc of KITE, still a black eye for the sector, but part of the territory when trying to treat the sickest of sick but KITE they other day I ranked CAR T names as BLUE,JUNO,AGIO,KITE,BLCM so it was never a fav of mine and there have been problems with the cytokine toxicity in these Car-ts not just kite also juno, i think a kill switch FDA will require, I like ZIOPs not BLCMs. Overall KITE wasn't one I liked bc these CD19s cars not worth that much man, JUNO data seemed to be the strongest but I know Novartis has a solid one too, epic price war to ensue there in that space
I think overall the entire small cap bio market depends on this data this dec. If its good, BLUE and all the CAR names rocket to the stratosphere bc well gene therapy is legit 24 months in, of course I don't think the others are anywhere near as legit, but you know how they all move in tandem. Like I said BLUE ends up with SCD,beta thal, and ALD cures this DEC its gonna be tough to not say their lentiviral vector is the future of GT. That is why I feel the buyout would come there. The beta thal is done basically, the ALD is solid, and the SCD with the update 2 days ago seems to be cures, they mentioned no pain killers 6 months later for the SCD patient......so this dec update is enormous for basically every small cap bio bc if blue gets smoked, adios XBI.
So a lot more than just blue is hinging on this data. Honestly its probably the biggest jump for mankind in terms of science we've seen in many years if this gene therapy is really cures with no side effects, from there we can look at the human genome in a different way. CRISPR is solid no doubt, but what BLUE has is just as good imo. We shall see shortly
The downturn in share price is really just overall weakness in bioland look where the IBB and XBI were recently and where they are now? Traders are so shortsighted and BLUE has no catalyst till DEC. They just did an offering at $170 so all supply issues were taken care of on that, and now its floundering with the overall bio markets.I think anytime you get a quality bio sub offering price you got a steal, this is a good 25% below the offering.
I think also car t space has been hot all year, today KITE had a patient die, granted that patient was already in awful shape and probably didn't die bc of KITE, still a black eye for the sector, but part of the territory when trying to treat the sickest of sick but KITE they other day I ranked CAR T names as BLUE,JUNO,AGIO,KITE,BLCM so it was never a fav of mine and there have been problems with the cytokine toxicity in these Car-ts not just kite also juno, i think a kill switch FDA will require, I like ZIOPs not BLCMs. Overall KITE wasn't one I liked bc these CD19s cars not worth that much man, JUNO data seemed to be the strongest but I know Novartis has a solid one too, epic price war to ensue there in that space
I think overall the entire small cap bio market depends on this data this dec. If its good, BLUE and all the CAR names rocket to the stratosphere bc well gene therapy is legit 24 months in, of course I don't think the others are anywhere near as legit, but you know how they all move in tandem. Like I said BLUE ends up with SCD,beta thal, and ALD cures this DEC its gonna be tough to not say their lentiviral vector is the future of GT. That is why I feel the buyout would come there. The beta thal is done basically, the ALD is solid, and the SCD with the update 2 days ago seems to be cures, they mentioned no pain killers 6 months later for the SCD patient......so this dec update is enormous for basically every small cap bio bc if blue gets smoked, adios XBI.
So a lot more than just blue is hinging on this data. Honestly its probably the biggest jump for mankind in terms of science we've seen in many years if this gene therapy is really cures with no side effects, from there we can look at the human genome in a different way. CRISPR is solid no doubt, but what BLUE has is just as good imo. We shall see shortly
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:31 am to lsutraderman
Sigma I just read that Molec 2011 paper you were referencing and I saw this
"Additionally, no convincing examples of insertional activation of oncogenes and consequent transformation have been reported associated with HIV infection"
That's actually great because its like I said this HIV is the best vector, its definitely legit. That's a good read man
"though HIV proviruses can affect the activity of nearby genes. Studies in
tumor-prone mouse models9,10 and tissue culture systems11,12 have
reported less genotoxicity resulting from transduction with lentiviral
vectors than with ?-retroviral vectors."
in short, for the guys who don't understand WTF I just quoted...... no one has ever gotta cancer from HIV infection, if there was high**high high, chance of getting genotox from the vector then cases of cancer with HIV would have been reported en masse
Damn man, bluebird scientists might actually end up the all time greats, wow, that was a great read
Seems to backup why I said I loved the bluebird.Thanks for the heads up
"Additionally, no convincing examples of insertional activation of oncogenes and consequent transformation have been reported associated with HIV infection"
That's actually great because its like I said this HIV is the best vector, its definitely legit. That's a good read man
"though HIV proviruses can affect the activity of nearby genes. Studies in
tumor-prone mouse models9,10 and tissue culture systems11,12 have
reported less genotoxicity resulting from transduction with lentiviral
vectors than with ?-retroviral vectors."
in short, for the guys who don't understand WTF I just quoted...... no one has ever gotta cancer from HIV infection, if there was high**high high, chance of getting genotox from the vector then cases of cancer with HIV would have been reported en masse
Damn man, bluebird scientists might actually end up the all time greats, wow, that was a great read
Seems to backup why I said I loved the bluebird.Thanks for the heads up
This post was edited on 8/14/15 at 12:38 am
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:39 am to lsutraderman
quote:
mr market loves to eat guys like you up
I have been trading options for over 20 years. Seen many whippersnappers like you in that time.
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:50 am to Tiger in Austin
tiger in austin, cool story, want a cookie? What does trading options for 20 years have to do with you not knowing the first thing about biotech and trading that?
Its about as relevant as your comments/questions on pricing problems of sovaldi vs orphan drugs
go to bed man its late
Its about as relevant as your comments/questions on pricing problems of sovaldi vs orphan drugs
go to bed man its late
Posted on 8/14/15 at 12:58 am to lsutraderman
All I trade is GILD. You don't think GILD has orphan drugs? So with orphan drug you can priced it whatever you want and it will be paid no question asked? BLUE should hire you to negotiate against ESRX, CVS and WLP. 
Posted on 8/14/15 at 1:26 am to Tiger in Austin
You mentioned sovaldi pricing. The reason GILD can't get what they want is competition, there's ABBV now and there's more coming soon. The whole point of an orphan indication is once its designated as such, there is no competition bc nobody is gonna waste time going after it while someone is cleaning up the small number of patients...........hep C is a goldmine there's patients galore so everyone is lined up to get in that space
It's not hard for GILD to negotiate with those companies, GILD just doesn't want to. I mean its like going to the mercedes dealership you can buy an S550 for $120k or a C300 for $40k both are cars, but one is better than the other.
Not everyone has to have sovaldi, its the gold standard, but V PAK works too, it sucks imo, but it works, so if an insurance says take this vs that, sounds like its time you get a better insurance. Look at the demographic of Hep C patients and their lifestyles, nobody cares, especially the tax payers. Its prisoners, its hookers,etc overall one could argue its nasty people who get that disease, there's really no sympathy from the average person. Once again as a taxpayer 90k a piece for 100k criminals behind bars????? LOL 2 bullets sounds a lot cheaper to me, and thats scientist in me talking. I mean its like 88 year olds we spend a fortune treating, the scientist in me says give them a ton of morphine and wish them well, we can't bankrupt the system to treat people at the end of the line, we just can't.
It's not hard for GILD to negotiate with those companies, GILD just doesn't want to. I mean its like going to the mercedes dealership you can buy an S550 for $120k or a C300 for $40k both are cars, but one is better than the other.
Not everyone has to have sovaldi, its the gold standard, but V PAK works too, it sucks imo, but it works, so if an insurance says take this vs that, sounds like its time you get a better insurance. Look at the demographic of Hep C patients and their lifestyles, nobody cares, especially the tax payers. Its prisoners, its hookers,etc overall one could argue its nasty people who get that disease, there's really no sympathy from the average person. Once again as a taxpayer 90k a piece for 100k criminals behind bars????? LOL 2 bullets sounds a lot cheaper to me, and thats scientist in me talking. I mean its like 88 year olds we spend a fortune treating, the scientist in me says give them a ton of morphine and wish them well, we can't bankrupt the system to treat people at the end of the line, we just can't.
This post was edited on 8/14/15 at 1:31 am
Posted on 8/14/15 at 2:48 am to lsutraderman
Someone as smart as you should know GILD has more than just Sovaldi. The FDA grants Orphan Drug status to Gilead Sciences' simtuzumab for the treatment of primary sclerosing cholengitis, a disease of the bile ducts that causes inflammation and can lead to cirrhosis and liver failure.
Posted on 8/14/15 at 4:05 am to lsutraderman
quote:this is not true. What you maybe meant to say is that You don't care what anyone has to say unless it is in some way related to how amazing BLUE is.
I really don't care what anyone has to say unless its in some way related to science
When Kork asked a few underlying questions earlier, you responded with information from a BLUE press release and a quote from the CEO... not necessarily unbiased sources.
Your constant ad hominem attacks on EVERYONE here is the most interesting part.
Don't act all enlightened because you left lafayette and never looked back. A lot of folks on this board no longer live in LA, either... but that shouldn't even matter.
You have accused a lot of folks here of ignorance of science, but the only credentials you have provided are that you live in the north east and have worked in orphan drug discovery (maybe running assays in a lab for all we know).
Based on your emotional state, I still can't figure out if you are a coked up trader or a troll.
Posted on 8/14/15 at 6:18 am to BioBobcat
quote:
I strongly agree with your point about monogenic diseases. I feel like many in molecular biology forget that most traits are polygenic and the interactions between these loci are complex. I think the illumina next generation sequencing platforms are going to do a good job reducing said ignorance. On another note, I think that many of the proposed applications of CRISPER are exciting.
It is complex, and on top of that, you have the non-coding RNA regulatory machinery to contend with, epigenetic regulation/adaption, etc. The idea of miRNA therapy is cool in theory too...shutting down whole pathways is kind of the super charged version of traditional GT. One primary issue now is that a lot of antimiRs don't function by degrading the target (like siRNAs), it's just a physical tight binding, making the biological readout, short of efficacy in a disease model very tough.
I feel like I'm dumping on biotech in this thread, which I don't really mean to do. We should just be aware of the technical hitches that management doesn't like to share on websites and in press releases and conference calls.
This post was edited on 8/14/15 at 6:40 am
Posted on 8/14/15 at 6:26 am to lsutraderman
quote:
speaking of Sigma and NOFOX , have you guys looked at any of the names I mentioned Sigma?????
XON - my next fav after blue, monster potential in synthetic bio
RTRX - thiola monopoly
CEMP - antibiotic buyout candidate
TTPH - same as cemp, better safety profile
ANAC - small molecule foot cream, up 200% this month buyout coming
JUNO - best car t data
ZFGN - prader willie syndrome, i think has monster potential
XLRN - beta that
AFMD
TRIL
RDHL
PIRS
I don't invest in single biotech stocks, and I'm not familiar with the details of these companies. If I get some time this weekend, I'll try and take a look at the science. But I should say others would know much better than me about the quality of the investment. One thing that people sometimes get confused with on this board is the difference between, for example, Bluebird Bio and BLUE.
Posted on 8/14/15 at 6:41 am to Sigma
Oh snap - prepare to be called an array of different forms of ignorant
Posted on 8/14/15 at 7:58 am to NaturalBeam
At the end of th day what you think of means nothing, were on a silly message board and with or without you guys im going to be investing this sector and making money. So I sought out some guys to discuss things with, the rest of you should take your notepad out and jot down some notes from a guy like me who clearly knows what he's talking about when your own troll police sigma didn't refute my commentary. You guys are lucky to have a bad arse like me in here giving you pearls of wisdom free. Troll me all you but you've got my list we'll see in a few months if I'm a troll or the amazing guy I know I am
Page 11 of 13
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News