re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Why are you worried about Q4 earnings that won't be reported until February 2027?

This thread deserves a 1000 pages unlike some others. No names mentioned.

Gonna be a $300 day

This is interesting.

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Saw this earlier, are we selling now??

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Wonder if all of us on here sold at the same time. Think it would be enough to make a dent?

No faith in CRWV leadership. But Arkady..yes

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No faith in CRWV leadership. But Arkady..yes

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Here's a new chance for a prospective investor to understand the Nebius thesis, which has evolved a bit (to us) over the past 18 months. Or, of course to re solidify your conviction:

In the early phase of AI adoption, many companies were willing to spend aggressively just to see what was possible. But as AI moves into real enterprise workflows, customers will care much more about the value generated per dollar spent.

We’re already seeing that happen across the market.

That’s very bullish for infrastructure providers that can help customers optimize workloads, reduce costs, and build production-grade systems. It’s less bullish for companies that only provide raw capacity with no real differentiation.

Reddit thread sharing Cuhna's Inflection Week write up

Speaking of CRWV… why has IREN stalled? They are not acting like number 3 right now. HUT and others price action are way more impressive lately

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So I’ll ask Gemini, what’s a reasonable revenue estimate based on 5GW

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Ran it through Claude as well. Claude thinks it'll be 4GW but has similar price ranges:

Where Nebius actually stands
Current state: 2026 revenue guidance of $3.0B–$3.4B, with $7B–$9B ARR exit rate (sec) , against contracted power guidance that's risen from >1GW to >2.5GW to >3GW to now >4GW (sec) . Market cap is $70.69B (Robinhood) on 253.9M shares (Morningstar) at $291/share (Robinhood) .
So Nebius is tracking toward ~4GW contracted, not 5GW, and importantly almost none of that is "active" yet — they expect to reach 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by the end of 2026 (sec) , with the rest coming online over 2027 and into 2028. Contracted ? live. That gap matters a lot for a 3-year projection.

Building the 3-year case (year-end 2029)
Using the framework from before, but anchored to Nebius's real trajectory rather than a generic 5GW hyperscaler:
If Nebius gets ~4-5GW connected and substantially monetized by 2029 (plausible if the Pennsylvania site and other buildouts land on schedule), and using the $10-15B revenue-per-GW-equivalent logic from earlier:

Revenue: roughly $35-55B (this is a big if — it assumes high utilization, not just construction completion)
At 25% net margin: $9-14B net income
At 20-25x earnings (a "matured hyperscaler" multiple, since by 2029 the market would likely no longer pay 70x+ for Nebius given slower growth): $180-350B market cap

Per share on ~280-320M shares (assuming some dilution from capital raises, which the model notes will require significant equity and debt raises to fund the huge capital expenditure (Morningstar) ): roughly $550-1,200/share

That's a wide range, and honestly the spread reflects real uncertainty, not just rounding. The key swing factors: whether contracted GW actually converts to active, monetized capacity on schedule; whether 25% margins are achievable at scale given Microsoft/Meta deals are likely low margin (Morningstar) ; and whether the market still assigns growth multiples or reverts to mature-infra multiples by 2029.

I'd treat this as a back-of-envelope scenario, not a forecast — three years is a long time for a company whose guidance has moved 4x in under a year.