re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

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I've noticed that dude doesnt show up on day's like this. Why is that? He doesnt like money?

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When it's down from $303 to $285 he'll chime in with "Ouch" or "down 6%"

So at what point does the buying pressure (Peak $300-$310?) from the Nasdaq 100 additional slow down? Assume we see a solid drop after that. I may trim half my Roth Position and attempt to buy back after. I know if I do, it will rocket to $400 before I get to buy.

What’s your feeling on selling CC if you own under 200 shares of a stock? Just as a rule of thumb? Not necessarily only on this stock.

$400 is a tall order for 30 days out. But we’ve all seen that it only takes one catalyst for this particular stock to rocket. My goal is to keep my shares until we hit $1,000.

$1,000/share? Does this stock have that much juice? If so, I guess I should be adding here.

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What do you think happens when a company goes from 530 million revenue to 40 billion in 5 years?

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do we think that realistically happens?

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do we think that realistically happens?

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This is the thesis, so YES!

We are a long ways from January but those $410 covered calls are already wayyy too close for comfort.

Forced diversification?! Or go with 2028 or 2029 LEAPS?
We could be $550 after Q3 earnings.

Just planning ahead…

I get it from a reasonable Price to sales or P/E multiple based on analyst revenue projections, like Goldman Sachs.

Or I take what the company gives us and infer.

They are targeting 5GW of power by 2030-31

I know that that amount of compute should easily generate 40bn annually based on this year’s ARR and compute guidance:

Looking forward into their 2026 buildout, company projections aiming for $7 billion to $9 billion in annualized recurring revenue against 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of connected power imply that Nebius targets an optimized yield of roughly $8 million to $9 million per megawatt-year.

So I’ll ask Gemini, what’s a reasonable revenue estimate based on 5GW of active power? What multiple can we safely assign to that number based on 25% net margins?

For an AI infrastructure firm at scale with a steady 25% net profit margin, a mature yet growing tech multiple of 20x to 30x P/E is standard.
At $36 billion in revenue, a 25% margin generates $9 billion in net profit.
Applying a 20x to 30x P/E multiple values the business between $180 billion and $270 billion.

Honestly, that’s really conservative.