re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Just added when my weak hand wanted me to sell. Fingers crossed for long-term.

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This has to be coordinated.

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Of course it is. The institutional investors want to get retail to sell their shares at a loss, so they can buy cheap.

We're little guys. We don't have the leverage to force the price down. We can't create an anti-AI bubble narrative that decreases demand. We can't sell short and drive the price down. We can only buy and be patient or take our losses now.

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We can't sell short and drive the price down. We can only buy and be patient or take our losses now.

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Yep. Holding my shares and waiting until we get a better sentiment. Don’t know when or if that happens.

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Don’t know when or if that happens.

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If NBIS performs according to their guidance, it is an "if", not a "when". I don't see how a company with $8B in revenue can be worth $80/share...

The only scenario I see where this stock continues to plummet is if Arkady and company lose their touch and start missing targets, bigly.

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CRWV took on too much debt, stock tumbles and the headline is CRWV collapse sparks fears of cracks in AI infrastructure boom.

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CRWV signed deals and used the contracts as leverage to borrow money to build the data center and meet the contractual obligation. Notice how they talk about their backlog? That's data centers that need to be built in order to make good on the contracts they signed. They are borrowing money at 9% interest.

NBIS is taking a much more conservative approach. They signed the deal with MSFT after the Vineland data center was almost completed and paid for.

The problem is that NBIS is lumped in with CRWV, and considered CRWV Lite, by many out there. That has to be overcome, and I think the next earnings report should show that NBIS isn't drowning in debt, like CRWV is.

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Tesla starts their driverless taxi service, poised to capitalize from AI and AI is hardly mentioned.

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This is one of the core functions of the data centers. Those driverless cars can't work without compute from the data centers. The fact that they don't mention it kind of shows that people aren't connecting the dots between the data centers and the functionality that they support. A lot of people think the data centers are their to "train" the AI, and then their job is done.

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Can I get a quick synopsis of the massive selloff here?

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What is your question? Are you talking about in the last 6 weeks? Or today, only?

I guess the answer is the same either way, although on any given day, there could be news to affect the price one way or the other.

The simple answer is that there is an Anti-AI sentiment. Investors see 100's of billions of dollars being poured into AI infrastructure and are questioning whether there is an "AI bubble".

The bottom line is that we can't afford to lose the AI war to China. If they get AGI before we do, they could potentially dominate us economically, militarily, and technologically.

So we must keep pace. Investors are not seeing the results, yet, so they are skittish, because AI investment is taking up the lion's share of investment dollars. They don't want to commit to AI stocks, unless they are convinced that this isn't a bubble.

In addition, I think there is a negative sentiment about AI because investors think it will negatively affect our economy in the sense that AI will start to take everyone's jobs.

The other thing that is happening is that Coreweave, which builds data centers is taking on tremendous amounts of debt in order to fund their hypergrowth. NBIS is much more fiscally sound, but investors see NBIS as another CRWV, without really doing their due diligence. Investors that are scared of CRWV are also skittish about NBIS. The hope is that after the next earnings report or two, NBIS's balance sheet will show that they are on a path to profitability in the not so distant future.

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Can y'all let me know when the bottom is in so I can load up on more shares? Riding this thing to $500 or $0. Sell button broke

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We'll all figure that out about 6 weeks after we hit it... We'll be saying, "Okay, it just hit $150. I don't think it's going back down to $54, again...".

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I personally, would like to see you sell your shares at a loss and wait 30 days to buy them back again. If you do that, I can guarantee you that the stock will double during the 30 day waiting period, which would be good for me.

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Been there watching it rocket waiting on that 30 day wash rule. Then end up buying back higher than you sold 30 days earlier.

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Now $18 below where we were when the Microsoft deal was announced ($95)

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Won't get better until one, AI sentiment improves, or two, there is a major announcement.

Every day, we hear about more investing in AI, robotics, government AI programs, etc, but investors are afraid to jump in.

It could be that this won't improve until after February earnings report. NBIS has to show us exactly how they are going to get to 2.5 GW by the end of 2026.

ETA - Arkady and team have until the end of February to exercise some options, so you had better believe they're going to try to get the price up before then.