re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

IT_DAWG - did we ever get any clarification on the "industry changing" announcement from DATA ONE, regarding a project with NBIS?

I was wondering about it, and looked at the announcement again, and they talk about how it will "change the industry forever", so it seems more than just another data center. NBIS seems to be more hands on with data center design, custom racks, proprietary cooling systems, etc.

Could this have something to do with using graphene to help cool the chips and reduce the amount of electricity needed (or allow chips to be more efficiently utilized)? Could the announcement they are waiting on have anything to do with HGRAF and their pending approval by the EPA to begin making/selling pure SP2 graphene?

I'm connecting dots that probably aren't related, but the DATA ONE announcement is on hold, as is the EPA approval for HGRAF graphene manufacturing. I know HGRAF has been working with potential clients to create a market for a product that has never been available, before, and NBIS seems to be very proactive and hands on in developing new technology for their data centers.

If graphene can reduce energy usage and they can retrofit their data centers to use graphene based technology, that would definitely change the industry and help relieve the botteneck of energy requirements.

This would probably be huge for Nvidia, too, as they could sell more GPUs to existing data centers, as well.

I'm going to assume that everything I just said is complete nonsense, but am interested in what you are hearing about that DATA ONE announcement. Is the "industry changing" description just hyperbole?

Yeah, I was totally speculating. I know HGRAF has said that they expect EPA approval before the end of the year, and Dataone says they are waiting on one piece of information before they make a big announcement.

The reason I don't think the Token Factory is the announcement, is that the announcement is coming from Dataone, not NBIS. Dataone doesn't have anything to do with the software - they are building the facility, and as far as I know, NBIS has the most proprietary buildouts in the industry, so if anybody was going to look at graphene as a way to decrease energy usage, it would be NBIS. If they could potentially use 45% less energy, that would, in fact, change the industry forever...

PER Google:

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How will graphene revolutionize data centers
Graphene technology is set to revolutionize data centers by addressing key challenges in energy efficiency and power infrastructure. Here are some ways graphene is expected to impact data centers:
Reduced Energy Consumption: Graphene materials can significantly lower energy consumption, potentially by up to 45% in AI data centers. This reduction helps in managing peak power demand and reduces the need for artificial loads during idle periods, which can lead to significant energy losses.
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Enhanced Power Delivery: Graphene's unique properties enable ultra-fast power delivery, which is crucial for modern AI workloads that demand high computational power and speed.
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Improved Cooling Efficiency: Graphene-based cooling systems can effectively manage excessive heat, which is a common challenge in AI and crypto data centers. These systems can help in managing heat and energy consumption more efficiently.
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Extended Lifespan: Graphene batteries offer a longer lifespan, making them a more cost-effective and sustainable option for data centers. This extended lifespan reduces replacement costs and enhances return on investment.
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Scalability and Flexibility: Graphene solutions can be scaled to meet the specific operational needs of data centers, making them suitable for various sizes and configurations.
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These advancements position graphene as a transformative material for the future of data centers, offering a sustainable and efficient approach to energy management and data processing.
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More pain today

I should just naked short this thing.

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Man, if NBIS and HGRAF strike a mega-billion deal I’ll be like doing two girls at the same time.

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I dont know if NBIS needs billions of dollars of graphene, but if they gain a competitive advantage doing that, everyone will follow suit.

If any of the neoclouds were to start using graphene, it seems that Nebius would be the one. They seem to be the industry innovators who would try this. If they are successful, you can bet everyone else will be stepping up to do the same.

I was probably connecting dots that arent connect able, but it was fun to think this is remotely possible. Dataone holding off on an industry changing announcement (pending one piece of information) at the same time HGRAF is waiting for EPA aproval.

Also, this could make the stock pop like crazy.

Yeah I might not look at this until after new years.

Capacity Constraints
This is a very well understood headwind. I think it was not as well appreciated while the AI trade was running hot. But why is there constraint? Massive demand for compute. I take this as long term bullish, all else equal.

Increased Capital Expenditures
Similar to above. Every company in history that needed to grow had CAPEX. The question is how profitable that CAPEX will be. TBD.

Shareholder Dilution Concerns
This is real and something to monitor. Although I do think Nebius sits better than some, utilizing hyperscaler contacts to finance longer term initiatives in enterprise AI adoption and AI startups. There should be some equity dilution, some debt.. but if the revenues continue to scale up, the market will look through this.

I don’t see any of these bear cases as major long term problems. Proper execution and outsized revenue growth solves all of the above IMO.

No santa claus rally for tech.