re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Up over night. I don’t wanna get my hopes up, but it would be nice to have one Green Day!

Is this the Nebius “moat”?

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Wowww…
This guy SUCKS.

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Sounds like half these people pumping nbis like David don’t even know what the tech is addressing. The sovereign liquidity thing and all this guys scenarios was an interesting read. I’m left not really knowing how big nbis can get and sounds like there’s a lot of variables.

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Instead of comparing this surge in AI to the .com bubble (cause that was just fake companies coming up with unreal ideas and IPOing without a product or service), compare it to the gold rush.

Now during the gold rush, you have massive amount of people that headed out to search for gold, but mostly it was the people selling the pick axes and shovels that profited….now, did digging for gold ever go away? No, still done like crazy today. Did a lot of the single people fail in it because they didn’t know what they were doing or taking advice on where to actually go? Yes.

Same with GenAI. It’s going no where but up and will be here forever. Does it work for every single person or company, no! But neither do restaurant owners that start one cause they cook good food at home.

Now, let’s get back to gold. The big boys were hiring out surveyors, buying up massive land and then selling leases for people to come out and work for them on their land and in their mines at a massive profit. Other big boys were making hand over fist selling shovels and pick axes.

Think of Nvdia being the landowners with surveyors and think of hyperscalers and Coreweave being the big shovel sellers and all the people gold rushers being organizations.

Now, along comes some others that start selling shovels, but a more efficient shovel, one that can allow you to dig twice as fast with the same shovel and person (on the same plot of land they are paying to lease) by simply adding a wedge on the back, or a 2nd side to the pickaxe….now that small guy starts racking up sales on a small scale and then starts thinking about how a mechanized shovel could do it even better and more efficient without as many people….it took a bit of time for the wedged shovel guy to start making the revenue as the other guys, but it happened at an accelerated rate. Then when he was inventing hydraulic shovels, many years later he was the king of the provider to mine the gold.

That’s Nebius…and GenAI is like Gold with NVDA owning the land and mines, it is the future and isn’t going anywhere


ETA: some of you might wonder why I didn’t use CRWV and NBIs as the land providers, as that would be more of a conceptual minded comparison, but the narrative of gold digging and GenAI are different. NDVA is the landowners owner and driving the direction with the capabilities of their chipsets and providing the opportunity for organizations to put their ideas into practice in their arena (land). Of course, there will be other players that come into this space as well, but much bigger hurdle to overcome than adapting some shovels, pickaxes and adding capabilities to the tools

Oh I’ve seen it. Just wait until 9:45 and see if it’s still there.

ETA: albeit painful, this has been interesting to watch. Stock consistently gets hammered down and then big calls coming in late in the day has been eye opening as to how the system works and the market is manipulated.

What I don’t understand is how long the $21M or so of short interest can stay open before those shares have to be bought back. Or, is that taking place after hours causing the rise only to get hammered gain t the open. I wouldn’t want to sitting short going into earnings.

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What I don’t understand is how long the $21M or so of short interest can stay open before those shares have to be bought back.

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Just an FYI it’s 21M shares not $ and probably closer to 25M right now. We don’t get daily updates on shorts, so it’s tough.

Also, there is no time limit as long as the borrower keeps margin requirements and keeps paying interest on the shares.

That’s why when it goes up drastically, shorts panic, buying up shares quickly which runs the price up and drives out short volume. You can look at the chart and see how this has happened with NBIS in the past….this just being the most short interest in the stock with a 1.8d to fill

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That interest has to hurt though.

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For a stock like NBIS…interest is minimal, probably 1% for the year. So let’s say you shorted at $120 for 10,000 shares last week, you would be up $200,000 in value right now. You also probably utilized the $1.2M in cash to then buy puts, helping drive the market down. It’s a vicious cycle that big hedge funds can play on an entire industry….but when retail and big banks really put it together and drive it up, the reverse happens.

That is why the GME shite was so out of control. The short interest on that stock was stupid unhealthy

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it’s closer to 24M.

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That was at the end of September, likely over 26M now. They only release the data twice a month and for the 2 reporting dates of the month 15th and 30th. Data usually released about 2 weeks after the reporting, so we should know what the Oct 15 short interest was, sometime early/mid next week

Looks like shorts are hesitant near $100 and were much more comfortable shorting around $110+