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Message
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted on 9/26/25 at 7:59 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 9/26/25 at 7:59 pm to bayoubengals88
Most accurate:
Using $0.118B (2024, actual), $0.63B (2025, estimated), and $4.5B (2026, projected, conservative per Goldman Sachs’ $6.5B estimate), NBIS achieves a 3,713.6% total percentage increase (CAGR 232.9%). This surpasses the prior 2023–2025 period (2,042.9%, CAGR 171.7%) due to the higher 2026 projection ($4.5B vs. $0.45B in 2025) and is higher than the original 2024–2026 period (2,866.1%, CAGR 181.5%) due to the larger 2026 figure ($4.5B vs. $3.5B).
- Outperformers:
- Yahoo (1997–1999): 4,430.8% total increase (CAGR 247.6%) still surpasses NBIS, driven by a tiny $13M base and dot-com ad revenue growth to $589M.
- Moderna (2019–2021): 30,685% total increase (CAGR 436.7%) far exceeds NBIS, but its COVID vaccine revenue spike ($18.471B in 2021) is a one-off, unlike NBIS’s AI infrastructure scaling.
- Netscape and eBay: Netscape (2,062.5%, CAGR 176.2%) and eBay (1,460.4%, CAGR 149.8%) fall below NBIS’s 3,713.6%, confirming neither outperforms NBIS.
- Goldman Sachs Context: NBIS’s $4.5B 2026 projection is noted as conservative against Goldman Sachs’ $6.5B estimate (per your input, aligned with analyst optimism for AI cloud growth). Using $6.5B would yield a 5,408.5% total increase (CAGR 269.2%), surpassing Yahoo but not Moderna (see below for sensitivity).
- Other Candidates: Re-checked high-growth companies since 1985:
- Alphabet (2002–2004): $0.44B ? $1.466B ? $3.189B; 624.8%, CAGR 93.6%. Well below NBIS.
- Cisco (1992–1994): $0.183B ? $0.649B ? $1.243B; 579.2%, CAGR 89.6%. Below NBIS.
- PayPal (2002–2004): $0.105B ? $0.237B ? $0.717B; 682%, CAGR 89.9%. Below NBIS.
- Snowflake (2020–2022): $0.265B ? $0.592B ? $1.219B; 360.4%, CAGR 66.3%. Far below NBIS.
- Qualcomm (1993–1995): $0.109B ? $0.248B ? $0.602B; 452.3%, CAGR 76.8%. Below NBIS.
**No other public companies exceed NBIS’s 3,713.6% total increase, except Yahoo and Moderna.**
Detailed Breakdown for NBIS (2024–2026)
- Revenues: $0.118B (2024, actual) ? $0.63B (2025, estimated) ? $4.5B (2026, projected, conservative).
- Total % Increase: (4.5 / 0.118 - 1) = 3,713.6%.
- CAGR: ((4.5 / 0.118)^{1/3} - 1) = 232.9%.
- Drivers: AI cloud and GPU infrastructure scaling (e.g., 220 MW data centers by 2025, >1 GW by 2026), supported by contracts like Microsoft’s ~$17B multi-year deal. The $0.63B 2025 estimate aligns with guidance ($900M–$1.1B ARR by Dec 2025, implying $400–570M full-year, per Q4 2024 earnings). The $4.5B 2026 projection is optimistic but below Goldman Sachs’ $6.5B, reflecting strong AI demand.
Sensitivity with Goldman Sachs’ $6.5B for 2026
If NBIS achieves $6.5B in 2026 (per Goldman Sachs):
- Revenues: $0.118B ? $0.63B ? $6.5B.
- Total % Increase: (6.5 / 0.118 - 1) = 5,408.5%.
- CAGR: ((6.5 / 0.118)^{1/3} - 1) = 269.2%.
This would surpass Yahoo (4,430.8%) but not Moderna (30,685%), making NBIS the second-highest performer. The $4.5B figure keeps NBIS at third place.
Using $0.118B (2024, actual), $0.63B (2025, estimated), and $4.5B (2026, projected, conservative per Goldman Sachs’ $6.5B estimate), NBIS achieves a 3,713.6% total percentage increase (CAGR 232.9%). This surpasses the prior 2023–2025 period (2,042.9%, CAGR 171.7%) due to the higher 2026 projection ($4.5B vs. $0.45B in 2025) and is higher than the original 2024–2026 period (2,866.1%, CAGR 181.5%) due to the larger 2026 figure ($4.5B vs. $3.5B).
- Outperformers:
- Yahoo (1997–1999): 4,430.8% total increase (CAGR 247.6%) still surpasses NBIS, driven by a tiny $13M base and dot-com ad revenue growth to $589M.
- Moderna (2019–2021): 30,685% total increase (CAGR 436.7%) far exceeds NBIS, but its COVID vaccine revenue spike ($18.471B in 2021) is a one-off, unlike NBIS’s AI infrastructure scaling.
- Netscape and eBay: Netscape (2,062.5%, CAGR 176.2%) and eBay (1,460.4%, CAGR 149.8%) fall below NBIS’s 3,713.6%, confirming neither outperforms NBIS.
- Goldman Sachs Context: NBIS’s $4.5B 2026 projection is noted as conservative against Goldman Sachs’ $6.5B estimate (per your input, aligned with analyst optimism for AI cloud growth). Using $6.5B would yield a 5,408.5% total increase (CAGR 269.2%), surpassing Yahoo but not Moderna (see below for sensitivity).
- Other Candidates: Re-checked high-growth companies since 1985:
- Alphabet (2002–2004): $0.44B ? $1.466B ? $3.189B; 624.8%, CAGR 93.6%. Well below NBIS.
- Cisco (1992–1994): $0.183B ? $0.649B ? $1.243B; 579.2%, CAGR 89.6%. Below NBIS.
- PayPal (2002–2004): $0.105B ? $0.237B ? $0.717B; 682%, CAGR 89.9%. Below NBIS.
- Snowflake (2020–2022): $0.265B ? $0.592B ? $1.219B; 360.4%, CAGR 66.3%. Far below NBIS.
- Qualcomm (1993–1995): $0.109B ? $0.248B ? $0.602B; 452.3%, CAGR 76.8%. Below NBIS.
**No other public companies exceed NBIS’s 3,713.6% total increase, except Yahoo and Moderna.**
Detailed Breakdown for NBIS (2024–2026)
- Revenues: $0.118B (2024, actual) ? $0.63B (2025, estimated) ? $4.5B (2026, projected, conservative).
- Total % Increase: (4.5 / 0.118 - 1) = 3,713.6%.
- CAGR: ((4.5 / 0.118)^{1/3} - 1) = 232.9%.
- Drivers: AI cloud and GPU infrastructure scaling (e.g., 220 MW data centers by 2025, >1 GW by 2026), supported by contracts like Microsoft’s ~$17B multi-year deal. The $0.63B 2025 estimate aligns with guidance ($900M–$1.1B ARR by Dec 2025, implying $400–570M full-year, per Q4 2024 earnings). The $4.5B 2026 projection is optimistic but below Goldman Sachs’ $6.5B, reflecting strong AI demand.
Sensitivity with Goldman Sachs’ $6.5B for 2026
If NBIS achieves $6.5B in 2026 (per Goldman Sachs):
- Revenues: $0.118B ? $0.63B ? $6.5B.
- Total % Increase: (6.5 / 0.118 - 1) = 5,408.5%.
- CAGR: ((6.5 / 0.118)^{1/3} - 1) = 269.2%.
This would surpass Yahoo (4,430.8%) but not Moderna (30,685%), making NBIS the second-highest performer. The $4.5B figure keeps NBIS at third place.
This post was edited on 9/26/25 at 8:00 pm
1
Posted on 9/26/25 at 8:01 pm to bayoubengals88
Explain all that like Im a 5 year old riding a short bus licking the windows.
I just bought a new boat today so I need NBIS to go up as much as possible
I just bought a new boat today so I need NBIS to go up as much as possible
Posted on 9/26/25 at 8:08 pm to sonoma8
NBIS revenue growth is projected to go from 117.5mm to 630mm to 4bn in three years.
This destroys the best three year stretch of any mag seven company.
It’s third only to Yahoo (whose 3rd year was under 1bn) and Moderna, a statistical outlier.
In other words, holy shite. Wait until the market catches on to this.
I truly expect every earnings report to be blockbuster through 2026.
This destroys the best three year stretch of any mag seven company.
It’s third only to Yahoo (whose 3rd year was under 1bn) and Moderna, a statistical outlier.
In other words, holy shite. Wait until the market catches on to this.
I truly expect every earnings report to be blockbuster through 2026.
Posted on 9/26/25 at 8:10 pm to bayoubengals88
Damn…. I picked up another 90 shares today just because we dipped a little. You never put all your eggs in one basket, but when you say shite like that, its hard not to.
Posted on 9/26/25 at 8:18 pm to bayoubengals88
Thanks. This is amazing
Posted on 9/27/25 at 2:56 am to astonvilla
Soon as GameStop hits 250 again and I break even I’ll sell and go all in on NBIS!
Posted on 9/27/25 at 12:02 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
NBIS revenue growth is projected to go from 117.5mm to 630mm to 4bn in three years.
In your humble opinion…..what kind of stock price are we looking at? Even if those predictions are remotely accurate.
Posted on 9/27/25 at 12:45 pm to Screaming Viking
Because of other catalysts, my end of year 2026 price target is $240
That’s a 57bn market cap
I think that would put them at a reasonable P/S ratio relative to peers.
That’s a 57bn market cap
I think that would put them at a reasonable P/S ratio relative to peers.
Posted on 9/27/25 at 12:53 pm to bayoubengals88
If they bring in what GS estimates (6.5bn) then it’s a comfortable 65bn market cap by mid 2026 as they beat and raise in August.
At 240mm shares outstanding that would be 65,000,000,000/240,000,000=270.833
$270.83/share
I’d say this is realistic if Goldman knows more than we know.
At 240mm shares outstanding that would be 65,000,000,000/240,000,000=270.833
$270.83/share
I’d say this is realistic if Goldman knows more than we know.
This post was edited on 9/27/25 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 9/27/25 at 12:56 pm to bayoubengals88
LINK
Very bullish interview from the CRO. Suggests that as something bigger than whats already announced is coming up
Very bullish interview from the CRO. Suggests that as something bigger than whats already announced is coming up
Posted on 9/27/25 at 1:02 pm to SpeedyNacho
quote:
Soon as GameStop hits 250 again and I break even I’ll sell and go all in on NBIS!
Soon as MSTR recovers I’m selling it all for NBIS and half my BABA when it hits 180
Posted on 9/27/25 at 1:19 pm to astonvilla
Great find!
I really hope the next deal is 10bn+ and with a European company.
Give it to me in November or early December. This thing would blow through $150.
I really hope the next deal is 10bn+ and with a European company.
Give it to me in November or early December. This thing would blow through $150.
Posted on 9/27/25 at 2:06 pm to bayoubengals88
Want to guess where the next greenfield will be? I am going somewhere in Pennsylvania
Posted on 9/27/25 at 3:14 pm to astonvilla
I would think west of the Mississippi.
Posted on 9/27/25 at 8:56 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 9/29/25 at 5:57 am to bayoubengals88
This is a great read. Such a differentiator for NBIS.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/29/25 at 7:16 am to bayoubengals88
That’s an outstanding read. Sounds like NBIS is crème de La crème of hyperscapers at this point. The comments in that X post are all very Bullish.
I’m primed to make another small purchase of NBIS. Do we expect the government shutdown to affect NBIS at all? Not sure if I should wait to buy more or just buy more and the bell or wait a few days.
I’m primed to make another small purchase of NBIS. Do we expect the government shutdown to affect NBIS at all? Not sure if I should wait to buy more or just buy more and the bell or wait a few days.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 7:58 am to supadave3
There’s been A LOT of retail talk about NBIS this weekend.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pop and pull back as per usual.
But if it is beaten down at the bell, by all means.
Not financial advice:)
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pop and pull back as per usual.
But if it is beaten down at the bell, by all means.
Not financial advice:)
Posted on 9/29/25 at 8:07 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
There’s been A LOT of retail talk about NBIS this weekend.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pop and pull back as per usual.
Thursday and Friday sucked. I can see this popping at the bell and being less volatile than usual. However, with this stock, it really seems to depend on the volume.
I personally believe we will hit a new ATH this week
This post was edited on 9/29/25 at 8:10 am
Posted on 9/29/25 at 8:36 am to IT_Dawg
hope your local bar is ready!
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