re: MRLN - Merlin Labs (Autonomous Aviation Software)

Got in at $10.40

I tried to get in under 10. Oh well.

I bit the bullet. The upward pressure was palpable. Lucked into a mini dip at 10.40

In the nick of time!
90 shares in each account.
10.46 and 10.31 averages.

Please go the route of Swarmer

I wouldn't feel so bad. Accredited investors paid $12 per share last fall:

In the context of a SPAC merger like Merlins with Inflection Point, a PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) is where institutional investors commit to buying shares at a fixed price to ensure the company has enough cash when it goes public.

Here is why some investors paid 12 dollars when others paid 10.20:

The Smart Money Anchor (10.20 dollars)
The Closing PIPE Investor (likely the lead institutional backer or the SPAC sponsor itself) committed the bulk of the capital (100 million dollars) at 10.20 dollars per share.
Why 10.20 dollars? SPAC shares usually have a floor value of 10.00 dollars. The extra 0.20 dollars often represents a small premium or includes warrants (the right to buy more stock later), which makes the effective entry price very attractive for the person putting up the most money and taking the most risk early on.

The Latecomers Premium (12.00 dollars)

By November 2025, as the deal gained momentum, more investors wanted in. Because the deal was hot or the company had hit new milestones (like the USSOCOM contract progress), Merlin had the leverage to charge more.

The 12 dollar Tranche: A group of other accredited investors put in an additional 20 million dollars at 12.00 dollars per share.
Why would they buy higher?

These investors were essentially paying a 17.6 percent premium over the lead investors price. They did this because:
Validated Thesis: They saw the smart money doubling down and wanted a seat at the table, even at a higher entry price.
Confidence: They believed the stock would trade well above 12 dollars once it hit the NASDAQ as MRLN.
Strategic Access: For some funds, getting a large block of shares in a frontier tech company like Merlin is hard to do on the open market without spiking the price, so they pay the premium to get the volume they want.

Why This Matters to the Thesis

Crossroads Capital highlights this because it shows increasing internal valuation. If people are willing to pay 12.00 dollars for a private stake before the company is even public, it suggests the intrinsic value is perceived to be much higher.

It creates a valuation ladder. When the stock recently traded around 7 to 9 dollars (as seen in March 2026), Crossroads views that as an absurdity—you can buy the stock on the open market for cheaper than the smart money paid in the private 12 dollar tranche.

In short: The 12 dollar buyers were high-conviction investors who believed the 1.6 billion dollar revenue story was so strong that 12 dollars was still a bargain.

Got in at 10.20. Looking good. Appreciate the insight!

quote:

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I've got a buy order at 10.00 I'll follow it for a few days and see if I can get in.

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Bought on 10/24 at $12.35, just last week meant to buy more when I was down 40% but forgot.

Kicking myself now

I miss napkin days. I’m back for the napkins and drinking beer to make the stock go up. My liver is cleansed and my powder is ready. Let’s do this!