re: MRLN - Merlin Labs (Autonomous Aviation Software)

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Existing Merlin shareholders rolled 100% of their equity into the new public company. Not 80%. Not 90%. One hundred percent. In a typical SPAC, insiders take partial liquidity at close—a rational move that provides a personal hedge while maintaining exposure to the upside. George and his team did the opposite. They chose to convert every dollar of their private equity into New Merlin Common Stock, binding themselves with strict lock-up agreements that prohibit selling, pledging, or hedging their economic interest. This is not a well marketed IPO where previous owners cashed out through the merger. Rather, it’s a backdoor IPO done quietly, where all of the company’s pre public equity holders decided to bet everything on the public market’s ability to eventually recognize the value in what they’ve built - and continue to build.

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…. When a founder puts $100–200+ million of personal wealth (essentially their entire net worth) into a public vehicle with no exit hatch, you do not need to read the investor deck to understand his conviction level.

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Since the deal was announced, Merlin secured a $105 million C-130J IDIQ with USSOCOM, airworthiness approval on the KC-135, Stage of Involvement-2 certification from New Zealand’s Civil Aviation Authority, and a GE Aerospace “Program of Record” designation for integration into its Flight Management System. Each of these milestones should, in a normally marketed pre-IPO roadshow, have driven meaningful appreciation in the stock ahead of listing; instead, Merlin stayed almost entirely silent while insiders and anchor investors increased their stakes, stabilized the balance sheet, and let redemptions wash short-term capital out of the float.

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Merlin’s emerging moat is economic as much as it is technical. The company has over 800 military aircraft under contract across platforms like the C-130J and KC-135, embedding a path to roughly $1.6 billion of high-margin recurring AI-software revenue once integrations scale. Per management, each tail carries a $3 million one-time integration fee and $2 million in annual recurring licensing—implying $25-$35 million in lifetime value per airframe (10-15 years minimum life post integration)

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We sized this position with conviction because the setup demanded it. The arbitrage leg has now unwound, leaving us with a core position we will flex up or down based on execution. Thankfully the technology is real. The contracts are signed. The insiders are buying. The market has barely noticed. All is quiet—for now. When the cadence of promotion begins in the coming weeks, we doubt the repricing will be gradual; with a roughly 5-million-share public float, price discovery is likely to be sharp and one-directional if management performs.

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I wish the friendly pickers like ancient tiger would come back

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what is your long term view on MRLN? Get in now, take some profits at around $15...then what? Just kinda ride the wave for a while and exit when it feels right, or do you have a long term "Ok I've made enough I'm cashing out" price target?

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