re: Money Talk challenge (1 year update)

quote:

---

You do see the irony in this, right?

---

Nopey, I see no irony in my post. Sorry.

quote:

---

now people like you act like you are more patriotic by just paying it and doing whatever the government says.

---

From the way I’ve run my businesses over the years to the organizations that I have belonged to, your assumptions are far off the mark. Point to any post on this board where I’ve said, or even suggested, such a thing. This may be something of a task for you, since I don’t discuss politics generally, and have never said or suggested that I feel that I’m more patriotic than you or anyone else because of my personal or political views… apart from the fact that you said that you hate the United States of America more and more, while I do not and never will! Despite its warts and issues, I actually feel blessed to have been born in and live in this republic. If you don’t feel the same way, that’s unfortunate… but don’t let the door strike your buttocks too hard on the way out.

I’m not the one throwing money at South American prostitutes for a cheap thrill, while asking how I can loan my mother money… and avoid parting with any of my bitcoin. I’m not the one whining about U.S. policy proposals, after once talking about purchasing property in Venezuela (of all places). Now in my world, where the sky is still blue, that is ironic.

quote:

---

It’s hilarious.

---

Yes, my good man, that^^^ is both ironic and hilarious.

quote:

---

May 5th BTC: $29,528.50
S&P 500: $4,136.25
NVDA: $286.80

---

With a month to go it’s a 2 horse race. BTC up 286% and NVDA up 379%.

May 5th 2023
BTC: $29,528.50
S&P 500: $4,136.25
NVDA: $28.68


May 5th 2025
BTC: $94,467.58
S&P 500: $5,686.67
NVDA: $114.50


Gains:
NVDA - 299%
BTC - 219%
S&P - 38%


Congratulations to the winners!



Jokes aside, a donation is being made promptly to a local nonprofit earmarked to have a bench placed in a neighborhood (which we both used to live in) park with placard commemorating the achievement, emblazoned with the timeless financial advice:

quote:

---

bUT nOoooo. S&p 500 or iTs gAMbeLiNG!

yOu DOnT UnDErstand!!!

herpppppppp derpppppp.

8% rETURNs BrOooooo

---

This thread is amazing

quote:

---

I'm interested to see why you aren't bullish?

---

When I started this thread the asymmetrical risk to reward was just out of the world. New cycle, ETFs, institutional buying, etc.

I had no doubt it was going to the moon. It was obvious.

How do we get another 200%+ return from here? It is going to take significantly more energy/money and I don't see where it comes from. There are no more big events that I can see and retail continues to show no interest in BTC.

I think we grind up from here and I still think we outperform the S&P 500 over the next 5 years.

Why am I not buying more? Because I need to diversify my portfolio. 85%-90% of my net-worth is now BTC so I will be focusing on diversifying into safer investments until I can spot another asymmetrical opportunity.

quote:

---

I’d take your bet and check the price of NVDA in May 2025. I don’t hate Bitcoin, but it is not going to outpace NVDA in the next two years.

---

NVDA won handily despite it being more than 20% off its alltime high.

It also had the benefit of:

being a real business

being infinitely liquid

having zero transaction costs

I think you are missing the point. NVDA's rise is likely the fastest in history in terms of absolute market value creation and revenue scaling. So, it took making history for NVDA to do it. So, while bitcoin didn't win, that doesn't make what it has done any less spectacular. So, what this all does show is that BAMA made a shite pile of money and he even showed and explained his hand to you. People still ignored the reality. Some people make money by seeing the future, others refuse to see and are down right negative about those realities. I wish I had seen his original post, I didn't get turned on to bitcoin until the middle of last year (so, I made money, but not what he did).

I understand his pause on BTC optimism at this point. You’ve basically had every possible break to your way with respect to risk assets, political power, etc to get BTC here - how do you get your next 300% outside of simple scarcity? This bull run also ended with much more muted returns than previous ones.

I don’t think it’s going away or anything, but future returns will be akin to more mature asset classes - hell, we just recently wrapped up a 4yr period where SPY outpaced BTC.