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OleWarSkuleAlum
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2013
8232 posts

Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
quote:

During October 2019, year-over-year growth in the money supply was at 4.95 percent. That's up from September's rate of 3.10 percent, and was up from October 2018's rate of 3.49 percent. The increase in money-supply growth in October represents a sizable reversal of the trend we've seen for most of this year so far. In August, the growth rate hit a 120-month low, falling to the lowest growth rates we'd seen since 2007.




quote:

The M2 growth rate also increased in October, growing 6.65 percent, compared to September's growth rate of 5.61 percent. M2 grew 3.38 percent during October of last year. The M2 growth rate had fallen considerably from late 2016 to late 2018, but has been growing again in recent months.


quote:

Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by periods of slow-downs in rates of money-supply growth.

Moreover, periods preceding recessions often show a growing gap between M2 growth and TMS growth. We saw this in 2006-7 and in 2000-1. The gap between M2 and TMS narrowed considerably from 2011 through 2015, but has widened since then. Even with October's jump in growth levels, M2 was still growing faster.




quote:

The lack of money supply growth also points to growing weakening in economic activity since the Fed has turned to increasingly accommodative monetary policy in recent months - but has not managed to return money supply growth to levels we'd expect in an expansion.




LINK

Contrary to the fake news being spread on this very board the TMS is not increasing at a level we should expect in an expansion. The fed needs to get a clue. We need to depreciate the USD sufficiently to become competitive in the export markets again. Right now our monetary policy or lack thereof is shooting us in the foot during what could be the greatest expansion in history.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
9 acres of paradise in Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
117320 posts

re: Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
quote:

Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
quote:

TMS is not increasing at a level we should expect in an expansion.
quote:

We need to depreciate the USD
Your ignorance of monetary economics is stunning.

Or are your statements in this thread just another example of your self-proclaimed diversions from reality?


RoyalWe
LSU Fan
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
668 posts

re: Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
I regret I have but one down vote to give.


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60
90proofprofessional
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2004
23132 posts

re: Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
quote:

Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS)

have a downvote


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20
Bard
LSU Fan
Tigerdroppings Platinum Member
Member since Oct 2008
35281 posts

re: Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
Did you fly in on your fake plane to spout this drivel?



OleWarSkuleAlum
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2013
8232 posts

re: Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
quote:

Your ignorance of monetary economics is stunning.


According to you what did I say wrong?

Money supply has grown to a 28 month high. M2 is increasing but at a divergent pace from TMS. This is not indicative of the current expansion we are in. We need a greater increase in TMS to sufficiently depreciate the USD. If this had happened as needed 28+ month ago instead of tightening the market would be +25%* from its current position.

*back of envelope estimate
This post was edited on 11/29 at 8:20 am


RoyalWe
LSU Fan
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
668 posts

re: Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
quote:

Money supply has grown to a 28 month high. M2 is increasing but at a divergent pace from TMS. This is not indicative of the current expansion we are in. We need a greater increase in TMS to sufficiently depreciate the USD. If this had happened as needed 28+ month ago instead of tightening the market would be +25%* from its current position.

Or maybe the money supply growing suggests we're not at a market top (Trennert, Strategas Securities). Low and negative bond yields will attract money into stocks.

Bears are saying the same thing they said 10 years ago -- the stock rally is fake propped up by Fed stimulus. Since then the fake rally is up another 192%, driven by earnings (not P/E). Ben Carlson in Fortune says nearly 97% of annual returns for the 2010s are due to earnings growth and dividends (fundamentals). By several measurements, stocks are valued reasonably. Why should the Fed accelerate their Treasury buying to further depreciate the USD? It looks like we're right where we need to be (as much as you and Trump would argue otherwise). I love me some Trump, but he's wrong on this one.


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10
Fat Bastard
Boston College Fan
Member since Mar 2009
44374 posts

re: Money-Supply Growth Accelerates To 28-Month High
quote:

Did you fly in on your fake plane to spout this drivel?




u saw that too eh? dude is so butthurt he cried on the scoreboard. he gets owned here and poli board so much


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