- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
March PCE comes in as expected, slightly hotter YoY
Posted on 5/31/24 at 8:21 am
Posted on 5/31/24 at 8:21 am
MoM PCE for March was .3%, YoY was 2.7% (expectation was 2.6%). Core MoM PCE came in at .3% (again, as expected) with YoY at 2.8% (expectation was 2.7%).
This comes on the heels of Q1 GDP being revised down from 1.6% to 1.3%.
Probabilities of a September cut are now about dead even.
While federal debt creation still chugs along, consumer debt creation seems to have plateaued since February/March. I can't help but wonder if this is due to consumers pulling back on spending, consumers hitting their debt ceiling or a mix of both. That said, delinquencies will be a key to watch over the coming months, especially if real wages continue the slump we saw in Q1.
This comes on the heels of Q1 GDP being revised down from 1.6% to 1.3%.
Probabilities of a September cut are now about dead even.
While federal debt creation still chugs along, consumer debt creation seems to have plateaued since February/March. I can't help but wonder if this is due to consumers pulling back on spending, consumers hitting their debt ceiling or a mix of both. That said, delinquencies will be a key to watch over the coming months, especially if real wages continue the slump we saw in Q1.
2
Posted on 5/31/24 at 9:17 am to Bard
quote:
consumers pulling back on spending
Record breaking numbers of travelers for this past Memorial Day weekend.
Are people really pulling back on spending?
Not to mention most restaurants around me seem packed every day of the week and especially the weekends.
Posted on 5/31/24 at 9:55 am to Paul Allen
quote:
Record breaking numbers of travelers for this past Memorial Day weekend.
Are people really pulling back on spending?
Not to mention most restaurants around me seem packed every day of the week and especially the weekends.
It will be a while before we see the GDP numbers from the weekend, but it may be that many consumers decided to slow down their Q1 spending in order to use it for Q2/3 (summer months) instead.
While consumer credit seems to be holding a line, personal savings continues to be slowly drained.
Posted on 5/31/24 at 10:29 am to Bard
quote:
Record breaking numbers of travelers for this past Memorial Day weekend.
Are people really pulling back on spending?
Just more evidence of a bifurcated economy. I'm collecting plenty of interest on my cash - enough to buy a flight. A 25 yo without assets is hurting pretty bad with these prices and is tapped out.
Jim Bianco was on MacroVoices yesterday and had an interesting take on this topic.
Posted on 5/31/24 at 10:31 am to Paul Allen
quote:
Record breaking numbers of travelers for this past Memorial Day weekend.
Link?
Posted on 5/31/24 at 10:47 am to DarthRebel
Posted on 5/31/24 at 10:57 am to DarthRebel
Keep in mind this record is surpassing the 2019 numbers.
Eta. and I think we have like 10 million more people in the country something something.
Eta. and I think we have like 10 million more people in the country something something.
This post was edited on 5/31/24 at 10:59 am
Posted on 5/31/24 at 7:49 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
Just more evidence of a bifurcated economy. I'm collecting plenty of interest on my cash - enough to buy a flight. A 25 yo without assets is hurting pretty bad with these prices and is tapped out. Jim Bianco was on MacroVoices yesterday and had an interesting take on this topic.
I’m a big believer in this dynamic. I have many clients living on interest and dividends now. That wasn’t possible 3 years ago.
Posted on 5/31/24 at 10:53 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
Just more evidence of a bifurcated economy.
I can't disagree. The continued strength of inflation outpacing wages is always going to impact the poor more than the wealthy. The market has seen some good returns (good enough to outpace inflation), but that only helps those who have enough investments to take advantage of the market.
The longer inflation outpaces wage growth, the further that bifurcation moves up the ladder of economic classes.
Posted on 6/1/24 at 9:38 am to Bard
I don’t see any rate cuts remainder of the year. Inflation is still higher than 2-3 target.
Posted on 6/1/24 at 9:52 am to kaaj24
quote:I agree. They play this game where they act like there might be cuts, but I don't see it.
I don’t see any rate cuts remainder of the year. Inflation is still higher than 2-3 target.
Posted on 6/1/24 at 3:49 pm to RoyalWe
quote:
They play this game where they act like there might be cuts, but I don't see it.
The game is being played to keep the market positive. As long as Wall Street is making a profit, there's room to spin that Biden's economy is doing well. They are doing their damnedest to attempt to set the stage for a rate cut in September so the economy can heat up in time for November, hoping that inflation won't have jumped up by then.
The problem is that the economy isn't agreeing to play the game. Inflation is still rising because there is still too much liquidity out there and the federal government continues to create more through debt creation.
This post was edited on 6/2/24 at 7:21 am
Posted on 6/1/24 at 7:25 pm to Bard
quote:
set the stage for a rate hike in September so the economy can heat up in time for November,
Huh?
Posted on 6/1/24 at 9:57 pm to notiger1997
I assume he meant rate cut
Posted on 6/2/24 at 7:20 am to notiger1997
quote:
Huh?
Sorry, meant rate cut. FIxed.
This post was edited on 6/2/24 at 7:21 am
Posted on 6/2/24 at 9:38 am to Bard
I don’t think rate cuts at this point will have any impact on how people feel about the economy.
It may make “headlines” but I believe most people don’t fall for it. And it would take several months for it to trickle down. Banks will reduce the amount of interest they pay immediately but it’ll be slower to reduce the interest expense charged to consumers.
When people go out to eat, grocery store, pay insurance premiums they know the real deal.
It may make “headlines” but I believe most people don’t fall for it. And it would take several months for it to trickle down. Banks will reduce the amount of interest they pay immediately but it’ll be slower to reduce the interest expense charged to consumers.
When people go out to eat, grocery store, pay insurance premiums they know the real deal.
Posted on 6/2/24 at 12:16 pm to kaaj24
quote:
I don’t think rate cuts at this point will have any impact on how people feel about the economy.
It may make “headlines” but I believe most people don’t fall for it.
People fall for it, it's why we have the term "gaslighting". Just look back at all the hooplah surrounding the COVID vaccines.
-First the media and government officials presented them almost as if they were immunizations
-then they backed off and said you would need a booster in six months but then you would be done
-then they said anyone saying that someone who had gotten the vaccine and still got COVID was lying
-then they said anyone saying that someone who had gotten the vaccine but then was still able to spread COVID was lying
-then they began pushing more and more boosters
And at each one of these stages, there were many who bought fully into it simply because the media and the government told them to while social media companies did their best to hide any counter claims.
COVID taught me that there are far more sheep out there than we like to believe and that puts us right here: there are many in the media and DC who do not want Trump in the White House again and they are willing to do whatever lawfare work they deem is necessary to achieve that goal (the valuation of Mar-A-Lago, for example). In that vein, the media will absolutely push any rate cuts prior to November as the cure for our economic ills (further evidence of that can be found in their attempts to ignore and dismiss Hunter Biden's laptop and Ashley Biden's diary). Negatives will be downplayed, positives will be played up and grey areas will be massaged into positives or just dismissed as being irrelevant.
That is, of course, if there is enough positive movement in enough indicators for the Fed to have some sort of argument for a rate cut by September. Right now, it seems (imo) to be a mixed basket with just enough positives and negatives that we are frogs in a pot of water and the heat is very slowly being increased.
quote:
And it would take several months for it to trickle down.
Those who propone the gaslighting don't care about it actually working, they just need it to look good enough for long enough to keep their guy in the White House. Janet is a part of that crowd. Whether JPow is or not (of if he is just determined to prove a "soft landing" can happen), time will tell.
This post was edited on 6/2/24 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 6/2/24 at 4:19 pm to Bard
quote:economy humming along maybe even on fire, inflation is too high , unemployment is pretty much at “full employment” (less than 4%) . Personal observations : United Club full. Galveston full. Folks shelling out $25 for two drinks and $150 for lunch for 4 .
In that vein, the media will absolutely push any rate cuts prior to November as the cure for our economic ills
An irresponsible rate cut at this point, and I may go all in on Bitcoin.
Page 1 of 1
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News