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re: Live in a hot rental market and the economy is catering, what to do?
Posted on 5/5/23 at 11:14 am to GREENHEAD22
Posted on 5/5/23 at 11:14 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Fed is still going to raise rates, which it should. Lending is drying up, inflation is still high, good chance we are still at the beginning of these bank troubles, debt levels across the board are climbing. What am I missing that I should be optimistic about?
I was listening to economics forecasts this morning on the way to work, CPI estimates aren't promising.
quote:
Markets are forecasting:
CPI year-on-year (April 2023 vs. April 2022) to remain steady at 5.0%.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool from 5.6% to 5.4%.
CPI month-on-month (April 2023 vs March 2023) to rise 0.4% from 0.1% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to cool from 0.4% to 0.3%.
LINK
It takes ~12 months for the full impact of rate hikes to really show in the economy. March 2022 was the first hike (.25) with May (.50) and June (.75) being larger increases. Hopefully, we'll see those increases pay dividends in stronger cooling to inflation in the coming months. We should have enough of the big numbers (jobs, CPI, etc) before the June FOMC meeting for them to be at least a little more committal on the future.
This post was edited on 5/5/23 at 11:19 am
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Posted on 5/5/23 at 11:21 am to Im4datigers
quote:
Not enough time to make that up with appreciation in that short amount of time.
Disagree. Houston has so much influx that it’s all booming. Anyone that bought 5 years ago made way more than that in appreciation
Posted on 5/5/23 at 11:26 am to Upperdecker
I think it's borderline given the uncertainly after 2-3 years. It's either now or wait, though.
Posted on 5/5/23 at 2:00 pm to GREENHEAD22
Nobody can predict the future, but I don’t see how housing can stay at current levels or much less increase at the rates we’ve seen except in the hottest of markets. Prices have damn near doubled in the last 5 years.
Rates have jumped, consumer debt is at an all time high and the Capital markets are sputtering along with all kinds of strange thing happening. Something is going to break.
Buying now IMO is the equivalent of buying in 2007.
Rates have jumped, consumer debt is at an all time high and the Capital markets are sputtering along with all kinds of strange thing happening. Something is going to break.
Buying now IMO is the equivalent of buying in 2007.
Posted on 5/5/23 at 5:09 pm to SquatchDawg
quote:
Buying now IMO is the equivalent of buying in 2007.
If you could go back to 2007, would buying a house be a good investment, over a 10 to 15 year horizon?
Posted on 5/5/23 at 5:27 pm to Dawgfanman
quote:
If you could go back to 2007, would buying a house be a good investment, over a 10 to 15 year horizon?
Yes if your holding for 10 or 15 years and didn’t lose your job or need to sell/relocate in the short term AND the Fed still decides to cut rates to zero again and flood the market with money.
Now you, would you have fared better waiting until 2009?
Posted on 5/5/23 at 5:41 pm to SquatchDawg
quote:
Yes if your holding for 10 or 15 years and didn’t lose your job or need to sell/relocate in the short term AND the Fed still decides to cut rates to zero again and flood the market with money. Now you, would you have fared better waiting until 2009?
It’s a bad idea to buy a house if you aren’t planning to live there for 10 or so years. If I lost my job, how would I buy a house in 2009?
My point was, you can wait on a possible crash like 2008, but the more likely scenario is prices dip a bit and remain sideways. There are not enough houses to meet demand. The US didn’t build many for over a decade.
Posted on 5/5/23 at 6:50 pm to GREENHEAD22
RENT! It's better to spend $20k on rent than to lose $100k - 200k on depreciation on a house. It will most likely rebound and the correction might not be that severe but we DO NOT KNOW what is going to happen. If you don't have time to ride out that correction rent.
Posted on 5/6/23 at 8:21 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
I know I just hate pissing money away on rent but it is the safer route.
Rent. Particularly since you have a new job and uncertain economy. And you aren’t wasting money renting.
LINK
This post was edited on 5/6/23 at 8:27 am
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