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Posted on 11/16/15 at 11:49 am to Salmon
quote:
Just got hit with a 2nd round of company wide layoffs
Hang in there and prepare for the worst. I've been in that boat before.
Posted on 11/16/15 at 12:38 pm to LSU0358
quote:
Not to hurt feelings, but if this is like the last in the 80s, from the high price in 2007 it will be ~20 yrs before a true oil bottom is in. We might get some bounces into the $60/bbl range on some geopolitical upheaval, but these bounces will be short lived IMO.
Maybe, but this is different than the 1980's. You had a massive amount of Saudi crude surplus that had to be worked off in the 1980's. the current surplus is only 1.5-2.5 MMBPD of extra capacity depending on which analyst or outfit you believe. Decline rates are different on current production and we don't have any major new sources of cheap oil coming on the market like the north sea or Alaska did in the 1980's. The supply increases have mainly come from US/Canada tight oil and oil sands and then Iraq and Saudi in the middle east along with high Russian output. These outputs won't continue for very much longer at $40 per barrel as maybe only the Saudi's can come close to holding production steady. The only wildcard is the worldwide economy and if we see an outright demand collapse. There will certainly be more pain and we might see a year or more of these depressed prices but it's worth noting the 1980's was a different situation.
This post was edited on 11/16/15 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 11/16/15 at 1:12 pm to TigerDog83
Our we seeing full production out of Iraq right now? I know Shell has a huge development in southern Iraq, and the Kurds are punching holes up north.
Not sure what Libya offers, but that's off the table right now.
Not sure what Libya offers, but that's off the table right now.
Posted on 11/16/15 at 1:27 pm to BobRoss
Iraq was up to 4 MMBPD as of October, although that had started to slowly fall as these prices hurt their government badly. There are articles out there saying the Iraqi government is going to be short of cash to develop some of the planned expansions and they may be plateauing, but their increase has offset what declines we have seen from other places.
Posted on 11/16/15 at 1:59 pm to Salmon
quote:
I'm still good, but someone tell me that things are going to recover by the spring.
Friends at Worley-Parsons issued the same look-ahead for 2016 that they did for 2015: UNCERTAINTY.
Posted on 11/16/15 at 4:16 pm to TigerDog83
Great points. This is a very important one and if I could accurately predict it I would have quit my day job by now.
Another important one is that when oil topped in late 1985 a USD bull market had just finished in Jan 1985 after an 8 year increase. The USD looks to have bottomed in 2011 after a ~25 year decrease. If the USD bull lasts as long as the last one and performs on a similar % basis, this USD bull could just be starting. I think it will be difficult for oil to do well in the midst of a USD rise barring any geopolitical turmoil.
quote:
The only wildcard is the worldwide economy and if we see an outright demand collapse.
Another important one is that when oil topped in late 1985 a USD bull market had just finished in Jan 1985 after an 8 year increase. The USD looks to have bottomed in 2011 after a ~25 year decrease. If the USD bull lasts as long as the last one and performs on a similar % basis, this USD bull could just be starting. I think it will be difficult for oil to do well in the midst of a USD rise barring any geopolitical turmoil.
This post was edited on 11/16/15 at 4:22 pm
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