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Started By
Message
Jerome Powell says the Fed could hike rates by .75 AGAIN in July!
Posted on 6/16/22 at 6:38 pm
Posted on 6/16/22 at 6:38 pm
CNBC
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank could raise interest rates by a similar magnitude at the next policy meeting in July as it did in June.
“From the perspective of today, either a 50 basis point or a 75 basis point increase seems most likely at our next meeting,” Powell said at a news conference following the central bank’s policy decision. “We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.”
“The pace of those changes will continue to depend on incoming data and evolving outlook on the economy,” Powell said. “Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common.”
This followed up by CNBC's "Nostradamus to the Stocks" Jim Cramer who announced tonight that "the Bear Market is Over!"
I'm pulling all of my holdings tomorrow and converting them to cash now.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank could raise interest rates by a similar magnitude at the next policy meeting in July as it did in June.
“From the perspective of today, either a 50 basis point or a 75 basis point increase seems most likely at our next meeting,” Powell said at a news conference following the central bank’s policy decision. “We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.”
“The pace of those changes will continue to depend on incoming data and evolving outlook on the economy,” Powell said. “Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common.”
This followed up by CNBC's "Nostradamus to the Stocks" Jim Cramer who announced tonight that "the Bear Market is Over!"
I'm pulling all of my holdings tomorrow and converting them to cash now.
8
Posted on 6/16/22 at 6:56 pm to MrLSU
quote:
I'm pulling all of my holdings tomorrow and converting them to cash now.
A little late boss
Posted on 6/16/22 at 7:02 pm to MrLSU
Bears make money. Bulls make money. Hogs get slaughtered.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 7:08 pm to Paul Allen
.75 at a minimum. 100 pts is probably what is NEEDED, but we probably won't get it.
I went to the gas pump last week, 2015 Ford Ecoboost $178 to fill up.
Today same truck, same pump, $185.
THIS ALL STARTS WITH FOSSIL FUELS, IF THEY DON'T COME DOWN.....NOTHING IN THE DOW- RANGE SUPPLY CHAIN IS GOING TO GET CHEAPER!
Next month CPI and inflation will be the same if not worse.
I went to the gas pump last week, 2015 Ford Ecoboost $178 to fill up.
Today same truck, same pump, $185.
THIS ALL STARTS WITH FOSSIL FUELS, IF THEY DON'T COME DOWN.....NOTHING IN THE DOW- RANGE SUPPLY CHAIN IS GOING TO GET CHEAPER!
Next month CPI and inflation will be the same if not worse.
This post was edited on 6/16/22 at 7:12 pm
Posted on 6/16/22 at 7:17 pm to Paul Allen
quote:wow, insightful
Hogs get slaughtered.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 7:34 pm to MrLSU
quote:
I'm pulling all of my holdings tomorrow and converting them to cash now.
Smart!! Nothing better than locking in a 25% loss
Posted on 6/16/22 at 7:39 pm to MrLSU
Like a hammer and a nail. Tools that complement one another. Future signaling as part of this week actual rate hike
Posted on 6/16/22 at 7:40 pm to DTRooster
Posted on 6/16/22 at 8:19 pm to iAmBatman
quote:
Smart!! Nothing better than locking in a 25% loss
I pulled out of GRIN and ZIM tonight. Only took a small 11% haircut on GRIN but read the shipping industry is now having major pricing and demand troubles so also pulled out of ZIM too. Going to reallocate next week when the market settles down a bit and double down on BTU.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 9:05 pm to MrLSU
quote:
I'm pulling all of my holdings tomorrow and converting them to cash now.
quote:
I pulled out of GRIN and ZIM tonight
So those are you’re only 2 holdings?
You need to borrow some money?
Posted on 6/16/22 at 9:43 pm to MrLSU
I’m not understanding. The point of increasing rates is to control inflation and reduce consumer spending. What are consumers buying right now that needs to be slowed down? I haven’t been spending a ton on luxury items. Is the general population spending lavishly?
Posted on 6/16/22 at 10:27 pm to tigersfan1989
Inflation is due to reduced supply or excess demand, but in this case it’s reduced supply:
- reduced oil supply
- reduced housing supply
- reduced food supply
- reduced supply of semiconductor chips
- reduced supply of cars
- reduced supply of Chinese made goods
And the list goes on
Hiking rates to kill inflation makes sense when DEMAND is high. But I’d argue demand is normal and SUPPLY is just extremely low. If the supply is things that are needed, the rate hikes won’t kill the demand, and prices continue to increase
- reduced oil supply
- reduced housing supply
- reduced food supply
- reduced supply of semiconductor chips
- reduced supply of cars
- reduced supply of Chinese made goods
And the list goes on
Hiking rates to kill inflation makes sense when DEMAND is high. But I’d argue demand is normal and SUPPLY is just extremely low. If the supply is things that are needed, the rate hikes won’t kill the demand, and prices continue to increase
This post was edited on 6/16/22 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 6/16/22 at 10:39 pm to Upperdecker
Not going to hurt those big companies buying properties in cash, will actually help them. Going to hurt those families through to purchase homes though.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 11:33 pm to Upperdecker
What is your short (less than 3 months) and longer term outlook on semiconductor stocks?
SOXX look really low. Any buy in point you have?
Thanks
SOXX look really low. Any buy in point you have?
Thanks
This post was edited on 6/16/22 at 11:48 pm
Posted on 6/17/22 at 12:01 am to iAmBatman
quote:
You need to borrow some money?
I hear the Fed is offering some pretty good rates!
Posted on 6/17/22 at 1:19 am to Upperdecker
quote:
Hiking rates to kill inflation makes sense when DEMAND is high.
But I’d argue demand is normal and SUPPLY is just extremely low. If the supply is things that are needed, the rate hikes won’t kill the demand, and prices continue to increase
I would try an argument, but our country doesn't have baby formula.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 4:29 am to TigerintheNO
quote:
I would try an argument, but our country doesn't have baby formula
Or Tampons apparently.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 5:59 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:Indeed.
THIS ALL STARTS WITH FOSSIL FUELS, IF THEY DON'T COME DOWN.....NOTHING IN THE DOW- RANGE SUPPLY CHAIN IS GOING TO GET CHEAPER!
quote:Interesting.
.75 at a minimum. 100 pts is probably what is NEEDED, but we probably won't get it.
I went to the gas pump last week, 2015 Ford Ecoboost $178 to fill up.
Today same truck, same pump, $185.
So the Fed raising rates, is going to solve gas price escalation in your view?
----
One needs to understand cause and effect before one can affect the cause.
Posted on 6/17/22 at 6:25 am to Upperdecker
quote:Rate escalation can affect inflation even in the case of supply-chain etiology.
If the supply is things that are needed, the rate hikes won’t kill the demand, and prices continue to increase
However, the mechanism is indirect and involves induced recession.
Consumer essentials (gas, food, medicine, housing) are in short-supply d/t supply-chain inefficiencies. Raising the price of those essentials won't significantly decrease demand for them, because ... wait4it ... they are essential.
It will eviscerate purchase of nonessentials though. By the time our administrative dummkopfen figure out supply chain impediments, our nonessential economy may well be crushed.
As I've said the Fed's solution is a bit like a Doctor having to stomp a patient's toe to "cure" the patient's headache, because folks in Washington won't release any Aspirin.
This post was edited on 6/17/22 at 6:27 am
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