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Is Bitcoin’s day as an exponential grower over?
Posted on 12/16/25 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 12/16/25 at 11:10 pm
In 2024 we wrapped up a 4y rolling period where the S&P 500 outperformed BTC. Now we’re looking at a year when stocks have done very well, Gold has done incredibly well, and BTC has been awful.
Neither of these were even thought possible 5 years ago, but here we are.
The question/hypothesis is this- does BTC modern adoption mean its tremendous outperformance is basically dead? I believe returns start to normalize which means the people looking to get rich will bail and ultimately BTC underperforms as an asset class now that it is incredibly mainstream. It’s not a ridiculous assumption- many assets have more muted returns as they become more popular.
Neither of these were even thought possible 5 years ago, but here we are.
The question/hypothesis is this- does BTC modern adoption mean its tremendous outperformance is basically dead? I believe returns start to normalize which means the people looking to get rich will bail and ultimately BTC underperforms as an asset class now that it is incredibly mainstream. It’s not a ridiculous assumption- many assets have more muted returns as they become more popular.
This post was edited on 12/16/25 at 11:21 pm
15
Posted on 12/16/25 at 11:26 pm to slackster
Early 2026 will be the year that Bitcoin skyrockets.
Posted on 12/16/25 at 11:37 pm to slackster
Probably only about 20-30% avg yearly gains from here on out.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 12:55 am to slackster
Pretty sure the Fed & JPM want Saylor's BTC at a discount so the crypto winter is like to persist IMHO. Pretty sure they don't like STRC setup.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 3:51 am to Pimphand
Gonna be at a 5 year head and shoulders in a few months
Posted on 12/17/25 at 5:24 am to slackster
BTC has proven time and time again that the chart just repeats itself, only each repitition of parabolic growth occurs over a much longer timeline and larger scale.
The "bitcoin always goes up" theory is correct until proven otherwise.. and proof would have to be a drop back into a previous timeline -- somewhere under $10k
The "bitcoin always goes up" theory is correct until proven otherwise.. and proof would have to be a drop back into a previous timeline -- somewhere under $10k
Posted on 12/17/25 at 8:36 am to slackster
Every time people start talking like this is usually a good time to buy bitcoin.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 8:45 am to MrLSU
quote:
Early 2026 will be the year that Bitcoin skyrockets.
Most are saying it will be a down year based on historical trends of going down every 4 years.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 8:50 am to SouthMSReb
Every other time people started talking like this precious metal were dead weight. I think a lot of speculators will be need to select a path now, and it’s hard to believe that group will choose BTC over silver in the upcoming year.
The absence of Stimmy money and all the newfound wealth created by meme stocks will also deflate BTC’s sails.
The absence of Stimmy money and all the newfound wealth created by meme stocks will also deflate BTC’s sails.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 8:57 am to slackster
Just keep buying
Posted on 12/17/25 at 9:10 am to SouthMSReb
quote:
Every time people start talking like this is usually a good time to buy bitcoin.
Always buy when sentiment is low. With that said charts point to a bottom in October.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 9:18 am to Pimphand
Yea, a lot of people will be caught offsides bearish if the bitcoin price continues to rally from here. Could trigger short squeezes and people FOMOing to get back in, it would be a classic wall street trap. Today is a good start, but we shall see.
This post was edited on 12/17/25 at 9:20 am
Posted on 12/17/25 at 9:27 am to Lgrnwd
They use volatility to shake out the weak hands
Posted on 12/17/25 at 11:42 am to SouthMSReb
quote:
Every time people start talking like this is usually a good time to buy bitcoin.
I own it personally. I’m just stating the facts- with popularity comes liquidity, and with liquidity comes better price discovery. That price discovery historically lowers volatility.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 11:57 am to slackster
I think it will be interesting to watch. Imagining something going from $10 to $100 is easy. $100 to $1,000 less so, but still very reasonable. $1,000 to $10,000? That's awesome! Let's keep it going! $10,000 to $100,000... oof, that's incredible, but it happens.
$100,000 to $1,000,000 per BTC?
Especially if your mindset is "not your keys, not your coins", that's a hell of a pill to swallow. If someone truly believes in the fundamental value, sure, they might be willing to pull the trigger on it. But as a pure speculative investment? That's tough.
$100,000 to $1,000,000 per BTC?
Especially if your mindset is "not your keys, not your coins", that's a hell of a pill to swallow. If someone truly believes in the fundamental value, sure, they might be willing to pull the trigger on it. But as a pure speculative investment? That's tough.
This post was edited on 12/17/25 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 12/17/25 at 12:25 pm to slackster
quote:That's been over for years.
Is Bitcoin’s day as an exponential grower over?
quote:By whom?
Neither of these were even thought possible 5 years ago, but here we are.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 12:25 pm to MrLSU
quote:The year of Early 2026?
Early 2026 will be the year that Bitcoin skyrockets.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 12:26 pm to slackster
Time to switch back into NFTs anyway. They've been out of favor for way too long. Too much fundamental value to ignore.
Posted on 12/17/25 at 12:51 pm to slackster
quote:
now that it is incredibly mainstream
is it?
Posted on 12/18/25 at 6:53 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
By whom?
By the bitcoin enthusiasts.
None of this discussion is relevant for a skeptic
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