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Started By
Message
Interesting read - "Most Investments Are Bad"
Posted on 5/24/24 at 4:44 pm
Posted on 5/24/24 at 4:44 pm
quote:
Whether we look at bonds, stocks, or real estate, the returns for most investments are bad. The top outliers account for most of the returns.
quote:
For equity and real estate investors, the key takeaways from this piece are 1) do not extrapolate the prior decades for a given investment and instead assess it with this context in mind, 2) try to emphasize the sectors that Bessembinder identified as ones that disproportionally generate excess returns, and 3) look for companies that have locked in or are otherwise still able to play this arbitrage game going forward in a more difficult environment for it.
LINK
7
Posted on 5/24/24 at 5:43 pm to Big Scrub TX
Even Bezos has said all businesses eventually go to zero. This is the value of an index of the S&P500. The companies change but it’s always the currently most successful companies.
This post was edited on 5/24/24 at 5:43 pm
Posted on 5/24/24 at 7:15 pm to Big Scrub TX
indexing GOAT
Posted on 5/27/24 at 7:58 am to Big Scrub TX
I couldn’t read the entire article but saw enough references to Gold to believe it to be a hit piece on stocks, bonds and real estate in favor of gold.
You tend to see these kinds of articles when gold starts to gain value.
“Most” investments are bad…. Well maybe “most” are but not smart stock picks or even brainless picks like buying ETF’s like SPY, QQQ .
I hold gold but not as something to outperform stocks- because it won’t, and hasn’t. It’s a hedge.
Gold has not outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 10 years or even longer periods.
You tend to see these kinds of articles when gold starts to gain value.
“Most” investments are bad…. Well maybe “most” are but not smart stock picks or even brainless picks like buying ETF’s like SPY, QQQ .
I hold gold but not as something to outperform stocks- because it won’t, and hasn’t. It’s a hedge.
Gold has not outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 10 years or even longer periods.
This post was edited on 5/27/24 at 8:01 am
Posted on 5/27/24 at 10:01 am to Big Scrub TX
Most investments are bad because most investors are bad. It takes skill, creativity, hard work, and luck to make a great investment.
Most people are lacking in at least one of the four.
Most people are lacking in at least one of the four.
Posted on 5/27/24 at 10:07 am to Big Scrub TX
VTSAX and chill
Posted on 5/27/24 at 1:38 pm to Big Scrub TX
RCL was a great investment in March 2020. But if everyone knew that, they would have bid up the price until it became a bad investment.
Posted on 5/27/24 at 9:09 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:Eh. The real takeaway is shorting the long bond, IMO. It's why I have ALWAYS thought it was dumb when people take 15 year mortgages and make more than the minimum payment monthly.
I couldn’t read the entire article but saw enough references to Gold to believe it to be a hit piece on stocks, bonds and real estate in favor of gold.
You tend to see these kinds of articles when gold starts to gain value.
“Most” investments are bad…. Well maybe “most” are but not smart stock picks or even brainless picks like buying ETF’s like SPY, QQQ .
I hold gold but not as something to outperform stocks- because it won’t, and hasn’t. It’s a hedge.
Gold has not outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 10 years or even longer periods.
All people do is bitch about inflation...and then refuse to take the most obvious and easy path to betting that that inflation will happen.
Posted on 5/28/24 at 1:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
shorting the long bond
That is an absolutely terrible idea right now
Posted on 5/28/24 at 2:26 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:Certainly less asymmetric than it has been in the past few decades.
That is an absolutely terrible idea right now
But I know you know what I mean. If you believe inflation is real, then it's dumb not to take advantage of 30 year mortgages to finance houses.
Posted on 5/28/24 at 3:09 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
LINK
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the 7 downvotes didn't read the article. Lyn is one of the most brilliant minds in financial analysis and provides some of the best research in macro for free. Do yourself a favor and read it.
Posted on 5/28/24 at 6:07 pm to Art Blakey
quote:I am the opposite of a gold bug and still didn't really even read this is a pro gold thing necessarily. I think the main point was currency debasement - and even gold wasn't really enough to cope.
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the 7 downvotes didn't read the article. Lyn is one of the most brilliant minds in financial analysis and provides some of the best research in macro for free. Do yourself a favor and read it.
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