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re: I am trying to understand how the unemployment rate is calculated now....
Posted on 12/5/16 at 1:39 pm to Cold Cous Cous
Posted on 12/5/16 at 1:39 pm to Cold Cous Cous
This is not about value judgments at all. Anyone who starts making them is missing the point of the statistic.
No. Unemployment measures aren't about how much you make, they're about how much time you spend working. If you're working 40 hours per week you are employed full time, and it doesn't matter how much you make.
Not hard at all. He's considered part-time. Again, it doesn't matter whether he can find more work or not.
quote:
I'm worth twice what my boss is paying me - how's that any different than someone working 20 who wants 40? So throw me in that number too.
No. Unemployment measures aren't about how much you make, they're about how much time you spend working. If you're working 40 hours per week you are employed full time, and it doesn't matter how much you make.
quote:
if someone is working 15 hours a week at $8 an hour because that's the only gig he can find, it would be hard to look him in the eye and tell him he's employed
Not hard at all. He's considered part-time. Again, it doesn't matter whether he can find more work or not.
0
Posted on 12/5/16 at 2:18 pm to Cold Cous Cous
quote:
Right but it gets tricky once you start making value judgments as to what "underemployment" means.
well I think you are making value choices all over the place with these surveys. If I say I am looking for work, but don't actually apply for jobs, am I in fact looking for work? I have a friend that "is looking for a job" but has sent out one resume in the last 9 months. Is he unemployed?
I think all you can do is have rules, and then apply those rules equally and document them.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 3:39 pm to I Love Bama
For the U.S., the natural rate of unemployment has long been believed to be ~5.00% due to frictional forces. Historically, at this rate, the economy is hitting on all cylinders. We've had a fundamental change in our labor force and employment/unemployment measures due to new economic realities, demographic changes, and technological progress.
From the beginning of its measurement until 2008, the typical spread between the unemployment rate and U-6 unemployment, which includes marginally attached workers and those working part-time jobs because they’re unable to find full-time jobs, was 380bps. That spread is currently 480bps. We have a labor force of ~100MM people. That leads me to believe that the U.S. would need to add ~1MM more full-time jobs above and beyond natural attrition before employment “slack” is sufficiently curtailed and we reach a new natural rate of unemployment.
From the beginning of its measurement until 2008, the typical spread between the unemployment rate and U-6 unemployment, which includes marginally attached workers and those working part-time jobs because they’re unable to find full-time jobs, was 380bps. That spread is currently 480bps. We have a labor force of ~100MM people. That leads me to believe that the U.S. would need to add ~1MM more full-time jobs above and beyond natural attrition before employment “slack” is sufficiently curtailed and we reach a new natural rate of unemployment.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 10:32 pm to dabigfella
quote:
The reality is, unemployment is not 4.7% they only count those participating, whatever the frick that means
If someone has actively looked for work within the last 30 days, they count.
Posted on 12/6/16 at 12:00 am to Chiefagain
99 weeks was used when the USA lost millions of jobs after the September 2008 recession
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