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Started By
Message
How the hell does the market go up today?
Posted on 12/5/08 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 12/5/08 at 5:58 pm
Nothing but bad news unemployment much higher than expected, China currency devaluation possibility, etc. How does the market end up positive? Short sellers covering over the weekend? What gives?
5
Posted on 12/5/08 at 6:19 pm to tammanytiger91
It could have been worse...
Posted on 12/5/08 at 7:26 pm to tammanytiger91
Partying over the OJ verdict?
Some people think the high unemployment numbers indicate the end of the recession. I think that is nuts.
Some people think the high unemployment numbers indicate the end of the recession. I think that is nuts.
Posted on 12/5/08 at 7:29 pm to Tigris
quote:
Some people think the high unemployment numbers indicate the end of the recession. I think that is nuts.
the market will stay irrational longer than I will stay solvent.
The volume was relatively low today. if you watch the down days, volume is very heavy. Up days, volume is usually on the low side. I have read that the institutional sellers are bringing the market down, and the up days are retail guys buying bargains. Not sure if I buy it.
Posted on 12/5/08 at 7:37 pm to MileHigh
I would reason that the expectations that oil prices near $25 and gas may reach below $1 next year have investors thinking the recession may not be as prolonged as expected. This means that most of the costs related to high gas prices will be scaled back allowing products to be purchased at a cheaper price with the same amount of profit margin.
Do I believe what I just typed? Half-heartedly.
Another reason may be some people bargain shopping before the January effect. People that claim to know why the market reacts on a day to day basis are generally wrong. The key is to look at what type of person is investing and where the money is coming from.
Do I believe what I just typed? Half-heartedly.
Another reason may be some people bargain shopping before the January effect. People that claim to know why the market reacts on a day to day basis are generally wrong. The key is to look at what type of person is investing and where the money is coming from.
Posted on 12/5/08 at 8:18 pm to tammanytiger91
Probably more buyers than sellers...
Posted on 12/5/08 at 8:29 pm to LSURussian
maybe someone got advance wind of the Dems. agreeing to the auto bailout. This BS is pissing me off. Let the market crash already so I can load up! I will not buy in until the DOW hits 6,000. I have my powder dry and ready, so stop the bailout BS and let the markets correct itself!
Posted on 12/5/08 at 10:58 pm to MIKE VII
quote:
I would reason that the expectations that oil prices near $25 and gas may reach below $1 next year have investors thinking the recession may not be as prolonged as expected. This means that most of the costs related to high gas prices will be scaled back allowing products to be purchased at a cheaper price with the same amount of profit margin.
if oil hits $25, reccession will be longer than expected, at least in LA
Posted on 12/6/08 at 1:04 am to Zilla
quote:
This means that most of the costs related to high gas prices will be scaled back allowing products to be purchased at a cheaper price with the same amount of profit margin.
It cuts both ways man.
Posted on 12/6/08 at 1:44 am to tammanytiger91
quote:
Nothing but bad news unemployment much higher than expected, China currency devaluation possibility, etc. How does the market end up positive? Short sellers covering over the weekend? What gives?
Cheapened labor?
Posted on 12/6/08 at 7:27 am to tammanytiger91
because unemployment came in at 6.7%. it was expected to be 6.8%. thinking that since it did not meet expectations because 150,00 or so fell off of the rolls because of using up benefits/time, we are in a recovery.
imo
imo
Posted on 12/6/08 at 8:23 am to crazycajun08
unemployement is the ends to a recession. job shedding is a necessary correction. how long and deep is "the question". but it means companies are contracting until the correctional period is over ....
Posted on 12/6/08 at 2:24 pm to Plucked
quote:
because unemployment came in at 6.7%. it was expected to be 6.8%. thinking that since it did not meet expectations because 150,00 or so fell off of the rolls because of using up benefits/time, we are in a recovery.
Huh? The consensus was in the 325,000-350,000 range and it came in at 530,000. It's not really worth it to harp on unemployment numbers, especially the U-3 numbers, because of the nearly impossible nature of trying to amass such a number; but if you're going to read anything into the data, it's telling you the recession is not only deepening but also widening and doing so very rapidly. It shows that the recessionary effects spreading into the larger economy, outside of traditional low-income, manufacturing jobs, and into service jobs, as evidenced by the 370,000 service sector jobs that disappeared. The only reason the UE rate stayed at 6.7% is because 422,000 dropped off the radar. I hate to be so negative, but there is nothing positive about that UE report.
Posted on 12/8/08 at 6:28 am to kfizzle85
quote:
The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts economists were forecasting. The rise in the unemployment rate, however, wasn't as steep as the 6.8 percent rate they were expecting. Taken together, though, the employment picture clearly darkening.
6.7% instead of 6.8%
Posted on 12/8/08 at 11:05 am to crazycajun08
quote:
The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts economists were forecasting.
Posted on 12/8/08 at 11:33 am to kfizzle85
As Kfizzle is inferring.... the unemployment rate itself loses value if you do not include the delta in the participation rate in scenarios like we have (ie capture those who no longer meet the definition of unemployed, but are not working)
Posted on 12/8/08 at 4:25 pm to igoringa
personally, I'm looking for that S&P500 to creep up to around 960-980 in the short term.... then I'm shorting this mutha.
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