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Started By
Message
How long do corrections / crashes last?
Posted on 4/5/25 at 11:19 am
Posted on 4/5/25 at 11:19 am
Do things settle and start to improve after a few days, weeks , months?
Posted on 4/5/25 at 11:47 am to hey benji
Look at a graph from 1980 until now.. I think you will see at least seven that are greater than 20 percent..
to answer your question .. they range .. for example look at from 2000 to 2013.. you will see no growth happened if you sold and bought on two specific days.. but in between if you dollar cost average each paycheck you would have made some and set yourself for growth latter..
Been through all of these.. this is a blip.. do not sell.. keep dollar cost averaging in .. if putting in new money from saving dca in on way down..
When it recovers it is usually pretty fast.. very abrupt .. and you will NOT be able to guess the timing..
There are lots of studies that show in recoveries that if you are out of market trying to guess when to come back in … the main percent of recovery will be ridiculous one day pops that happen over the months.. if out of market on those magic days you will miss most of the recovery..
At this point ride.. dca.. and a year out of retirement reallocate from growth to income and a 65/35 portfolio..
This is not even a pimple yet..
But imo this is not a normal market adjustment and caused and driven by a black swan ( or clown).., it will be driven by wh decisions until the market understands if any stability has started and the damage done ..
to answer your question .. they range .. for example look at from 2000 to 2013.. you will see no growth happened if you sold and bought on two specific days.. but in between if you dollar cost average each paycheck you would have made some and set yourself for growth latter..
Been through all of these.. this is a blip.. do not sell.. keep dollar cost averaging in .. if putting in new money from saving dca in on way down..
When it recovers it is usually pretty fast.. very abrupt .. and you will NOT be able to guess the timing..
There are lots of studies that show in recoveries that if you are out of market trying to guess when to come back in … the main percent of recovery will be ridiculous one day pops that happen over the months.. if out of market on those magic days you will miss most of the recovery..
At this point ride.. dca.. and a year out of retirement reallocate from growth to income and a 65/35 portfolio..
This is not even a pimple yet..
But imo this is not a normal market adjustment and caused and driven by a black swan ( or clown).., it will be driven by wh decisions until the market understands if any stability has started and the damage done ..
Posted on 4/5/25 at 11:49 am to hey benji
quote:
Do things settle and start to improve after a few days, weeks , months?
This one depends on if you think we are headed for a recession. I don't, so i believe we start to recover in the next week or so. Usually fast drops like this find their footings pretty fast. If so, we will bottom out next week if not Monday. If no recession, then we could see new highs by the end of the year. I'm betting on it. Trump has control of the situation and he won't let it get too bad.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 11:55 am to bama1959
“ Trump has control of the situation and he won't let it get too bad.”
So he caused it but will fix it when it is convenient for him..
I agree but you realize how ridiculous this sounds .
So he caused it but will fix it when it is convenient for him..
I agree but you realize how ridiculous this sounds .
This post was edited on 4/5/25 at 11:56 am
Posted on 4/5/25 at 12:07 pm to Thecoz
quote:
When it recovers it is usually pretty fast.. very abrupt .. and you will NOT be able to guess the timing..
I timed the bottom in March of 2020
This isn’t the bottom
Libs are crashing the stock market to make Trump look bad. Libs manipulate the stock market while us conservatives are too busy turning wrenches at the plant
Posted on 4/5/25 at 1:45 pm to Thecoz
quote:
So he caused it but will fix it when it is convenient for him..
I agree but you realize how ridiculous this sounds .
We have to change our economy from an inefficient and corrupt government economy to a more free enterprise economy. Trumps tarrifs last week are the worst they are going to be, imho. We start negotiating down from here. He had to push it now. It could be genius if it all works higher by the mid terms next year. I guess we will see.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 3:02 pm to Thecoz
quote:
So he caused it but will fix it when it is convenient for him..
Sounds like the Fed and "transitory" inflation back in '22.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 3:38 pm to hey benji
Corrections are situational, so this question can’t be answered. Especially since this one is largely self-inflicted. Trump could artificially inflate the market as early as next week if he wants to. Nobody knows.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 3:59 pm to bama1959
quote:
We have to change our economy from an inefficient and corrupt government economy to a more free enterprise economy.
You don’t even know what this means.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 5:34 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
You don’t even know what this means.
Well I'm certain you don't. When the government over spends by $2T/yr it becomes a government economy. And DOGE is proving a ton of it is corrupt. Now, cutting that overspending is going to hurt the economy but eventually private growth from deregulation and tarrif protection (including a lot of new investments) will bring us back. You are welcome for the education.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 5:37 pm to bama1959
quote:
we will bottom out next week if not Monday. If no recession, then we could see new highs by the end of the year. I'm betting on it. Trump has control of the situation and he won't let it get too bad.
At a certain point you have to wonder how people like this think Trump is an expert at everything
Posted on 4/5/25 at 5:59 pm to bama1959
quote:
We have to change our economy from an inefficient and corrupt government economy to a more free enterprise economy.
Tariffs are the opposite of a free enterprise economy
Posted on 4/5/25 at 6:49 pm to Art Blakey
The NASDAQ hasn’t priced in news from 02/21/25?
Posted on 4/5/25 at 7:28 pm to Thecoz
quote:
a year out of retirement reallocate from growth to income
You make it sound so easy.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 8:48 pm to Thecoz
quote:
When it recovers it is usually pretty fast.. very abrupt .. and you will NOT be able to guess the timing..
I think this is the most important thing
Also a quote that I have to remind myself of to remain rational:
“If you can’t stomach 50% declines in your investment, you will get the mediocre returns you deserve.”
Posted on 4/5/25 at 9:00 pm to Powerman
I took a 50% haircut in 2008. Maybe a little bit worse. I have a lot more in the market now at 47 than 30, but the smartest thing I did was just stay the course and buy when I had some money.
Luckily, I stayed employed. I was in the financial industry in those days, had 2 young kids and a new mortgage. shite was pretty dicey
Luckily, I stayed employed. I was in the financial industry in those days, had 2 young kids and a new mortgage. shite was pretty dicey

This post was edited on 4/5/25 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:48 am to Thecoz
quote:
and a year out of retirement reallocate from growth to income and a 65/35 portfolio..
A year? 3-5yrs…
Would have said that 1yr is very risky before the Tariff market implosion. Depending on your dependency on retirement portfolio (eg, no pension, not SS eligible yet, etc)…just saying 1yr, even in least dependency position, is dangerous.
The boom now speaks for itself.
This post was edited on 4/6/25 at 10:50 am
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:55 am to Artificial Ignorance
Good point …
This post was edited on 4/6/25 at 10:57 am
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