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re: Headline and core CPI come in under MoM and YoY expectations, stocks/bonds rally
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:07 pm to SloaneRanger
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:07 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:You were addicted to your cheap, government-supported, artificially-low interest rates - we get it.
I’m saying interest rates on a home loan have doubled.
2
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:14 pm to Big Scrub TX
You want to go down the road of “government supported” artificial things? How much time do you have?
Try to spin it any way you like, but we enjoyed low interest rates for a long time. They ended because of the Fed’s need to fight raging inflation. They’re gone and people are feeling it. But no one will feel it more that the government with its massive borrowing needs.
Try to spin it any way you like, but we enjoyed low interest rates for a long time. They ended because of the Fed’s need to fight raging inflation. They’re gone and people are feeling it. But no one will feel it more that the government with its massive borrowing needs.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:17 pm to Big Scrub TX
The people who have been saying for years that interest rates should be much higher are now saying pissed at sleepy for higher interest rates.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:19 pm to SloaneRanger
Words have meaning. None of your concerns are related to monetary debasement. But hey it sounds cool right?
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:25 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:Rates were low for so long because demand was so low. Yet people like you bitched and moaned about gov-spurred demand. The pandemic caused a crazy supply/demand mismatch which is what led to inflation. Well, that and finally ending nearly 2 decades of Chinese-driven disinflation as they no longer work for free there.
Try to spin it any way you like, but we enjoyed low interest rates for a long time. They ended because of the Fed’s need to fight raging inflation. They’re gone and people are feeling it. But no one will feel it more that the government with its massive borrowing needs.
Everyone likes to have their cake and eat it too.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:27 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:When it was Obama and markets were going up and rates were low it was "funny money" and "sugar high". Then, when Trump yelled at the Fed for slightly increasing rates, they were quite righteous in their support for that position. Then, when rates went literally to 0 during the pandemic, they skyscreamed about markets and asset prices being too high. Then, when rates went up and stocks sold off A LITTLE, they blamed Biden for their diminished 401Ks.
The people who have been saying for years that interest rates should be much higher are now saying pissed at sleepy for higher interest rates.
Nobody gives the first frick about actual facts.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 6:28 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I paid 2.55 for gas yesterday.
Update: currently filling up for $2.46.
Posted on 11/14/23 at 7:31 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Update: currently filling up for $2.46.
Bidenomics
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:37 pm to boomtown143
The entire health insurance component of CPI has been a clusterfrick since Covid. They changed the methodology starting this month and it was UP 1.1% month over month from September.
Health insurance inflation was likely overstated from 10/2021-10/2022, then understated from 10/22-9/23.
Anyone blaming the surprise downside beat on CPI due to the health insurance component doesn’t know or understand the topic.
Health insurance inflation was likely overstated from 10/2021-10/2022, then understated from 10/22-9/23.
Anyone blaming the surprise downside beat on CPI due to the health insurance component doesn’t know or understand the topic.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 12:36 pm to slackster
You can say that about unemployment and job growth data too. CPI is such a garbage datapoint for crafting policy around.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 12:44 pm to wutangfinancial
The bull case is that so much money has been printed and is on the sidelines that there's a lot of fuel for the fire with sentiment turning positive.
Not sure how that will play out but I'm damn glad I didn't buy those Tesla puts I was considering.
Not sure how that will play out but I'm damn glad I didn't buy those Tesla puts I was considering.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 3:24 pm to Diseasefreeforall
quote:I make more of a "not bear" case than a bull case.
The bull case is that so much money has been printed and is on the sidelines that there's a lot of fuel for the fire with sentiment turning positive.
I really struggle to see where credit will blow out.
Mortgage bonds should rally from here.
Equities? Down small?
Posted on 11/15/23 at 4:14 pm to Diseasefreeforall
quote:
The bull case
The bull case is that non-economic 401k retirement flows and corporate stockbuybacks aren't slowing down
Posted on 11/15/23 at 5:22 pm to slackster
quote:
The entire health insurance component of CPI has been a clusterfrick since Covid. They changed the methodology starting this month and it was UP 1.1% month over month from September.
Health insurance inflation was likely overstated from 10/2021-10/2022, then understated from 10/22-9/23.
Ok,we got another wolfstreet reader in here
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