Goldman Sachs on 11/13/25: S&P 500 headed for decade of ~3% annual returns

4 years of returns out of the way in the first 6 months right?

Yet another reminder that no one can consistently predict the future with reliable accuracy.

And also is a reminder that…

6-months does not make a decade.

The Dow jones is a measure of inflation

How many times are we going to hear elevated stock valuations, inflated PE ratios, and the Rule of 20 as reasons why XYZ stock is going to tank before we question these analysts.

Not saying ignore them completely, but these metrics are used too often to paint a doomsday scenario. Today is not yesterday, much less 25 years ago. Maybe the Rule of 20 should change to the Rule of 30.

I don’t know the answer, and Goldman had sound reasonings for their conclusions. Just can’t put too much stock into any analyst opinion trying to predict the market, much less the extremes.

Don’t turn your 401k contributions off, don’t move to cash based on these types of reports. Just keep on socking away what you can for retirement.

so about on pace with HYSA...

Better than sitting in a traditional savings account.

quote:

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Let's all laugh at doom and gloom reporting.

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“Don’t whistle past the graveyard ‘cause one day you’ll be in it.”



(Not saying THAT’S coming but a correction is always coming)

So we are 6 months into a 120 month prediction.

Gold Man Sacks may well end up wrong, but it’s a little too early to be sucking each other off…

It’s also possible that Gold Man Sacks was trying to drive stocks down to create a buying opportunity for their big dogs.

No way this prediction can be trusted. It is hard enough to predict a year out. A decade out is not reliable.

The market may double on inflation alone the next 10 years