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re: Getting out of the market before election
Posted on 10/9/20 at 10:55 pm to Jag_Warrior
Posted on 10/9/20 at 10:55 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
What does that have to do with the probability of a Biden win or the market pricing that probability in? Tax and spending bills must be passed by the legislative branch before ever reaching the President’s desk. No one has mentioned the probability/possibility of a blue wave sweep or the market pricing that in, have they?
Really? The main topic is the possibility of a correction and some saying a Biden win being digested right? All i'm saying is you never know how investors will react and that's a fact. Markets were all over the place in 2016.
1
Posted on 10/9/20 at 10:59 pm to Tigers4life
quote:
Really? The main topic is the possibility of a correction and some saying a Biden win being digested right? All i'm saying is you never know how investors will react and that's a fact. Markets were all over the place in 2016.
The markets were all over the place in 2016 bc a clinton win was priced in and trump won along with congress bud
quote:
I'm a full time trader and welcome anything that comes.
certainly not acting like it
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 11:01 pm
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:01 pm to thatguy777
I didn't think what you said was really that hard. It's as simple as...
Trump win: Stimulus package probably gets approved sometime in between the election and January, and the money printer may stay on for a while longer.
Biden win: Yes, there are questions about what might happen with corporate taxes and maybe with capital gains taxes, but likely could see a bigger stimulus package, just a bit later. Who knows what happens with the money printer.
The bigger issue than who wins with the election would be if it were contested (like 2000) because the market hates uncertainty, but otherwise, we likely need to focus on other risk events, like a credit market shake up, bank problems, housing market downturn, etc. We've gone so far that it'd likely take one of these things occurring to get another major shake up in the markets.
Trump win: Stimulus package probably gets approved sometime in between the election and January, and the money printer may stay on for a while longer.
Biden win: Yes, there are questions about what might happen with corporate taxes and maybe with capital gains taxes, but likely could see a bigger stimulus package, just a bit later. Who knows what happens with the money printer.
The bigger issue than who wins with the election would be if it were contested (like 2000) because the market hates uncertainty, but otherwise, we likely need to focus on other risk events, like a credit market shake up, bank problems, housing market downturn, etc. We've gone so far that it'd likely take one of these things occurring to get another major shake up in the markets.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:10 pm to thatguy777
quote:
certainly not acting like it
No need for this...How old are you? Guess I better agree with you from now on to avoid the cheap shots.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:14 pm to Tigers4life
how is that a cheap shot? A full time trader would recognize that a Biden win is not going to crash markets.
How bad did you mess up?
How bad did you mess up?
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 11:22 pm
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:27 pm to thatguy777
The word crash isn't in any of my post (uncertainty is) and you can see my trading results if you like. I'm doing ok.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:31 pm to Tigers4life
so as a full time trader are you suggesting that people liquidate before nov 3rd?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:32 pm to Tigers4life
quote:
The main topic is the possibility of a correction
A correction? I think the OP and others in this thread are talking about way more than a correction.
We just experienced a health correction and are rebounding solidly. Another correction in the 4th quarter might happen, but would you really go 100% cash on the possibility of another 10% drop? That basically just puts us back where we were t the end of June/early July and the run after that has been pretty great, even with September's correction. How do you time getting back in? The smart thing to do is to rebalance, trim, and have SOME cash ready when opportunities present themselves. But the total panic and fear mongering about a possible Biden win is ludicrous.
There's certainly going to be volatility and irrational market reactions for the foreseeable future, but the outcome of the election won't cause the market to drop 30+%.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:34 pm to thatguy777
No and I get what your saying. Plus....I'm mostly a day trader so I'm not in a position to suggest what any long term investor should do.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:38 pm to whitefoot
quote:
There's certainly going to be volatility and irrational market reactions for the foreseeable future, but the outcome of the election won't cause the market to drop 30+%
This is my thoughts also but strictly speculative on my part.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:41 pm to Tigers4life
You're a day trader then why are you worried. The entire point of this thread is for ppl not to sell everything bc of the election. Everything is going to be ok.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:47 pm to Mr Perfect
Dude, enough with the Russia bull shite. It has proven to be all just a bunch of garbage that many of the players/accusers should go to jail over. China is much more of a threat. The number one threat by far is the media in this country.
This post was edited on 10/10/20 at 12:35 am
Posted on 10/9/20 at 11:57 pm to thatguy777
quote:
ot saying that trump is for sure going to lose, but odds are not in his favor at this point. I don't like it but this is just reality
People who do real and much deeper analysis disagree. Besides, the actions since the DNC by the Biden camp don’t scream they think they are winning. They have flipped on almost every position they had, there is no visible support and next to no enthusiasm, they are following around the trump campaign trying to defend states they normally win, they are stealing trump’s campaign points, they are desperately pushing for mass mail in voting that everyone knows is less secure, their campaign and large donors are bailing felons out of jail and paying off tens of thousands of felons’ fines to garner more votes, and are constantly making extortion like threats to the public.
Posted on 10/10/20 at 12:03 am to xxTIMMYxx
good god man, I want trump to win also, but anyone that thinks trump is the favorite right now is delusional. These are facts. He is not the favorite to win, thus we are where we are. Hard to have rational discussion anywhere you go on this website
Posted on 10/10/20 at 12:08 am to xxTIMMYxx
You should not have disagreed with thatguy77...he's a scrappy one 
I apologize in advance...couldn't help myself
I apologize in advance...couldn't help myself
This post was edited on 10/10/20 at 12:10 am
Posted on 10/10/20 at 12:11 am to Tigers4life
The full time day trader that is worried about Biden winning the election
I mean cmon people. This is a joke. You work for morgan stanley?
It's not about disagreeing with me, it is more about rational thought
I mean cmon people. This is a joke. You work for morgan stanley?
It's not about disagreeing with me, it is more about rational thought
This post was edited on 10/10/20 at 12:12 am
Posted on 10/10/20 at 12:15 am to tigerlife00
You are not the first person who discovered that we have an election coming up in November. If the market were going to suddenly crash if candidate A (or candidate B) wins, it would not be advancing so smoothly right now. After many years of experience, I am convinced that market timing is a futile endeavor. When should you get out and when should you get back in? Based upon what I am seeing now, the election will be a non-event for the market. I could be wrong, but that is the way I am betting.
Posted on 10/10/20 at 12:16 am to thatguy777
Moody’s Analytics 2020 Election Model
This is what fund managers are reading, not the average of RCP polls. Moody’s has one of the most in depth data driven models available. Bottom line unless dems have record turn out Trump wins.
This is what fund managers are reading, not the average of RCP polls. Moody’s has one of the most in depth data driven models available. Bottom line unless dems have record turn out Trump wins.
This post was edited on 10/10/20 at 12:21 am
Posted on 10/10/20 at 12:21 am to EA6B
If this happens, then even better. Markets will do great. Markets will be fine under Biden as well.
Idk what you mean when you say fund managers but usually you want to do opposite of hedgefunds, they get it wrong more times than not.
Idk what you mean when you say fund managers but usually you want to do opposite of hedgefunds, they get it wrong more times than not.
This post was edited on 10/10/20 at 12:26 am
Posted on 10/10/20 at 12:32 am to tigerlife00
All depends on who you think is going to win. I'd be very nervous about it if I thought Biden is winning. The Dow will soar well about 30k once Trump wins
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