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Message
re: Getting out of the market before election
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:00 pm to thatguy777
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:00 pm to thatguy777
quote:
thatguy777
Still waiting on someone to give a non-political hunch explanation of why the market has priced in a Biden victory...
2
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:20 pm to Douglas Quaid
quote:
Still waiting on someone to give a non-political hunch explanation of why the market has priced in a Biden victory...
The stock market is quite simply just a discounting mechanism based on rational future expectations.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:23 pm to Douglas Quaid
You looked at any polls or betting markets lately? People a lot smarter than me and you are positioned for a Biden win and have digested it. Pretty simple
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:36 pm to thatguy777
Maybe he will win. I have no clue 
But the last election should have taught people that those polls are wildly inaccurate sometimes.
But the last election should have taught people that those polls are wildly inaccurate sometimes.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:39 pm to fallguy_1978
not saying that trump is for sure going to lose, but odds are not in his favor at this point. I don't like it but this is just reality
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:43 pm to thatguy777
I expect that the market will be a bit volatile around election day and a little afterwards either way, but it will settle down.
These politicians campaign on all of these things they are going to do and generally only pass one or two significant pieces of legislation during their term.
My concern is that Kamala will be president after a year or so and she's pretty far left of Biden.
These politicians campaign on all of these things they are going to do and generally only pass one or two significant pieces of legislation during their term.
My concern is that Kamala will be president after a year or so and she's pretty far left of Biden.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:54 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
But the last election should have taught people that those polls are wildly inaccurate sometimes.
That’s a common misconception. Overall, they actually weren’t inaccurate as they pertained to the popular vote. Hillary won the popular vote by roughly the amount that was predicted by the better polling models. But what really matters is how well (within a confidence interval) that a national poll can predict the electoral college results. Statistically, it seems that above 6%, a Biden electoral college win is most likely. And right now, the A rated polls are predicting that, simply because the polls are hanging somewhere around Biden +10. So that’s why that’s being priced in.
Anyone who trades options understands that probabilities don’t mean that a predicted result means that something is guaranteed. And no one here is suggesting that it is.
Folks, as I’ve already said, I’m not posting this based on who I want or don’t want to win. Just trying to answer this question of why the market players are standing where they are based on statistical probabilities. That’s all.
If you’re a (true) trader, trade based on data, not your heart.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 2:06 pm to thatguy777
quote:
You looked at any polls or betting markets lately?
Nope. You forget 2016 already? The polls are about as reliable as a crochet condom. PredictIt shows Hillary was a heavier favorite vs Trump in 2016 than Biden is now. Regardless, these things are not equity market indicators.
Still waiting for someone to provide a narrative of how the market has now priced in a Biden win using market indicators (e.g. price/volume, sector money flows, volatility, etc.)
I'm not advocating any political position here. Simply curious how some have arrived at the conclusion that the market has priced in a Biden win.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 2:13 pm to Douglas Quaid
And wasn't a clinton win priced in for the 2016 election? Or would you disagree with that?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 2:18 pm to Douglas Quaid
Posted on 10/9/20 at 2:20 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
The stock market is quite simply just a discounting mechanism based on rational future expectations.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 2:24 pm to wutangfinancial
A random walk devotee? 
Posted on 10/9/20 at 2:25 pm to Douglas Quaid
Guys, look the goal here is to make money. My entire point is that the market has digested a Biden win and its not going to crash bc of this. Sure things can happen that could make the market correct or crash, but Biden winning is not one of them. Life will go on after Nov 3 regardless of the outcome.
Going to enjoy the rest of my Friday.
Going to enjoy the rest of my Friday.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 2:29 pm to Jag_Warrior
No it's not random when $.90/$1 is going into passive funds and 45% of the market doesn't care about price. Of course that take in of itself is irrational considering how well momentum has done the past two decades
You are right in the very long term though and your takes on the politard stuff are spot on. Wait until they see how much the markets will love a Biden admin
You are right in the very long term though and your takes on the politard stuff are spot on. Wait until they see how much the markets will love a Biden admin
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:58 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Wait until they see how much the markets will love a Biden admin
They won't see it. They'll immediately shift to the narrative that it's not sustainable or it's an artificially inflated bubble that's going to burst any day.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:06 pm to thatguy777
quote:
People a lot smarter than me and you are positioned for a Biden win and have digested it. Pretty simple
And exactly where has the market priced in a 7% corporate tax increase? Will the market rise more with a stronger economy and higher corporate taxes, or a weaker economy and lower taxes? Will temporary stimulus offset the tax increase? History tells us the market has no clue what the knee-jerk reaction will be but what we do know is earnings will prevail in the end.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:18 pm to whitefoot
quote:
They'll immediately shift to the narrative that it's not sustainable or it's an artificially inflated bubble that's going to burst any day.
Both would be true statements...
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:43 pm to Tigers4life
I think you are missing the point. This can be hard to explain to some people. You keep worrying about all that. I won't.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 10:14 pm to Tigers4life
quote:
And exactly where has the market priced in a 7% corporate tax increase?
What does that have to do with the probability of a Biden win or the market pricing that probability in? Tax and spending bills must be passed by the legislative branch before ever reaching the President’s desk. No one has mentioned the probability/possibility of a blue wave sweep or the market pricing that in, have they?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 10:40 pm to thatguy777
quote:
I think you are missing the point.
quote:
My entire point is that the market has digested a Biden win
This isn't the first election...look back at the charts.
quote:
You keep worrying about all that.
I'm a full time trader and welcome anything that comes.
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