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Strannix
USA Fan
Banana Republic
Member since Dec 2012
38101 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Imagine thinking you can double the money supply in a few years and there wont be massive inflation


Ross
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2007
45335 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
slackster, gonna poke a little fun at ya now cause BTC all time high seems like it may be only a day or two away



wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
8001 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
I added today because a friend of mine in AM has really strong conviction on it this quarter. I'm sure it's going to run hard the next few weeks. There's lot's of people losing their minds about inflation.


Ross
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2007
45335 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
This quarter is traditionally the most bullish quarter of the four year cycle. People tend to anticipate a blow off top around 100-125k and a crash to some unknown level. Institutional adoption may render these forecasts meaningless, but I think being bullish at this level and at this time makes a lot of sense


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
75446 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

Imagine thinking you can double the money supply in a few years and there wont be massive inflation


fricking Trump.


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03
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
75446 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

slackster, gonna poke a little fun at ya now cause BTC all time high seems like it may be only a day or two away




Let’s go. My Polkadot is on an absolute tear of late too.


TigerTatorTots
LSU Fan
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
78671 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
We converted Slack so well to crypto that hes now diving into shite coins


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
75446 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

We converted Slack so well to crypto that hes now diving into shite coins


Idk wtf Dot does but I was doing some reading and a guy that manages a crypto fund said he was high on it.

As I’ve said on here a few times, Idgaf what clients do with up to 5% of their NW, and I have the same rule for myself. I’ve got 20% or so of my account in BTC and ETH, 30% in DOT, then the other 10% roughly in LINK, SOL, and MATIC. Idk what I’m doing with some of them, but I don’t mind making money with everyone else.


TigerTatorTots
LSU Fan
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
78671 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

Idgaf what clients do with up to 5% of their NW,
This has been my pitch for 2 years. 5% of your NW, throw it in crypto. If it goes to zero, it will sting but it won't change your life negatively. However on the flip side, the asymmetric upside is wild because that 5% could become 25% in a couple years. Glad you took the plung
This post was edited on 10/15 at 8:07 pm


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wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
8001 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
I bought it when it first filed that $40ish gap and bitched out in the low $20s but I didn’t want to have too much concentration in it. The chart has looked good for months and the analytics are allegedly stout for $100k. The shite y’all look at


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buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
34567 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

Imagine thinking you can double the money supply in a few years and there wont be massive inflation
I mean they massively expanded the money supply after the Great Recession, and despite the Austrian’s in particular, predicting massive inflation, we couldn’t even keep up with the low target inflation.

Furthermore, despite the huge expansion of the money supply recently, even inflation running higher than it had been, it’s still well below anything one would predict if money supply was the main determinant.

On top of that, while it’s not completely transitory, there are still transitory effects in the inflation rate. Most importantly though, the other driver, what people are categorizing as “supply-chain” issues, is really an issue of spending disproportionately on goods (up well over 10% pre-pandemic) and less on services (down over 2%).

And the demand for goods, and goods that aren’t typically bought a recurring basis (cars, furniture, home improvements) have created the bottleneck, but this also has transitory effects because they don’t typically recur and companies are less likely to expand the supply as a result.

Furthermore, the lack of demand for services is largely a function of the pandemic, which then pushes people to buying more goods instead. But if services rebound, which have less inflationary pressures, and divert demand from goods, this should decrease the inflationary pressures significantly.

In other words, despite the massive expansion of money supply, the transitory base effects, and the disproportionate demand for goods instead of services, inflation is still not very high. So clearly, the money supply has not had a huge impact, and it will likely be less impactful in the future.

Velocity does matter, especially given the unique circumstances in this case. But the expansion of the money supply functions a lot differently nowadays as the fed uses different tools that impacts velocity. For example, after the Great Recession the fed started paying banks interest to hold cash. While a small amount, it’s also risk free, so it’s appeared to have created enough incentive to hold cash instead of deploying it into the economy (velocity). So that money supply, that doesn’t get deployed, is different than if it was deployed.

And besides banks holding cash, individual savings rates have increased, so they’re not deploying it all either. Could they? Sure. But the fact that I’m the savings rate has continued to stay so high, indicates that maybe people have reconsidered their savings habits, instead of spending indiscriminately. Maybe they’ll put it in stocks, crypto, or some other investment assets instead, but those don’t create price pressures so it doesn’t increase inflation.
This post was edited on 10/15 at 10:29 pm


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
8001 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Image: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=Hn7L


Image: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=HSOp


I'm an Austrian myself. It took me several years to figure out what was happening. The biggest issue on these discussions is everybody has their hot take on inflation and what rate it's at. I choose to use what the market thinks it is. We do know typically monetary debasement in the US doesn't affect consumer prices. It's the supply function and aggregate demand for inelastic goods/services that push up COL at higher rates than CPI. Anyways it's all more complicated than M2 growth. Your comments on CPI are spot on especially where you mentioned the hard goods explosion we saw last year as people went on a house buying frenzy and left the office for home.

A few things though. The rent moratoriom frickery hasn't flowed through yet. This is the largest portion of CPI. My guess is landlords, rightfully so, restructure their leases if you know what I mean to recoup losses and reduce their risk to exposure like this again. Another problem is that food prices are probably going to be sticky. I've never seen food price deflation over extended periods of time. Energy supply is clearly a hot topic so I don't want to get caught up in narratives (and this one appears to be mostly political) but I don't see crazy rig count growth and there are administrative issues directionaly on energy policy. I also think demand is going to surprise to the downside, even after a few months of pulled back expectations for 2022. This means reduced pricing power for producers. It's a weird time. People pretending they have the secret sauce on forecasting this world are special to say the least.


Strannix
USA Fan
Banana Republic
Member since Dec 2012
38101 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Not transitory, get ready......


Ross
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2007
45335 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

Not transitory, get ready......




I'm curious when we are to expect the inflection point downwards based on even the loosest interpretation of the word "transitory". I would have figured any definition of transitory back in March would have precluded at least an inflection point downwards before the end of the year


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