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Fed governor Bowman favors July rate cut if inflation data is positive

Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:31 am
Posted by bigjoe1
Member since Jan 2024
1865 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:31 am
quote:

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Monday that she would favor an interest rate cut at the next policy meeting in July so long as inflation pressures stay muted.

In remarks for a speech in Prague, Bowman became the second central banker in recent days to suggest that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to have a temporary and muted impact on prices, thus paving the way for lower rates.

“Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market,” she said in prepared remarks. “In the meantime, I will continue to carefully monitor economic conditions as the Administration’s policies, the economy, and financial markets continue to evolve.”

Bowman’s comments are similar to those from fellow Governor Christopher Waller, who told CNBC on Friday that he also thinks the Fed could consider cutting in July.
CNBC
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
32883 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:37 am to
I really wish people would define the terms they use. I don’t have an issue with her statement in a vacuum, but what does “remain contained” mean? The wiggle language is annoying.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
59254 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:44 am to
quote:

In remarks for a speech in Prague, Bowman became the second central banker in recent days to suggest that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to have a temporary and muted impact on prices,


According to them though, the tariffs were supposed to bring inflation roaring back already.

If she is expecting the reduction in inflation to be "temporary and muted", that means she is expecting inflation to return. Why would she be in favor of cutting rates if she's expecting inflation to return anyway? Politics? Just spewing crap to avoid saying she doesn't know what to think? Something else?

You raise or hold rates if you expect inflation to rise, you cut rates if you expect inflation to go too low.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
59254 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:44 am to
quote:

I really wish people would define the terms they use.


Like "recession"?
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
21733 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:46 am to
quote:

at the next policy meeting in July

Of course my variable rate for Q3 gets established based on the prime rate as of July 1st
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
98058 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:51 am to
The pressure is mounting on Jerome to stop playing politics as Fed Govs jockey for his job
Posted by bigjoe1
Member since Jan 2024
1865 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:51 am to
Might be a real chance at a cut. I checked and both she and Waller are on the FOMC.
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
36218 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 9:59 am to
quote:

According to them though, the tariffs were supposed to bring inflation roaring back already.


I’ll admit. Between tariffs being rolled out, paused, enforced, paused again, negotiated, 200 deals being done, no deals being announced, pauses being extended…I don’t know if tariffs have ever really even been put into effect at this point.

And I also don’t think you see “inflation” due to tariffs. It’s taxes passed onto the consumer and not technically inflation.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41087 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 10:10 am to
quote:

According to them though, the tariffs were supposed to bring inflation roaring back already.


What tariffs?
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
32883 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 10:17 am to
quote:

Like "recession"?

That’s in a second category, along with “inflation”: the problem isn’t that they won’t define it; the problem is that they keep redefining it
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
32883 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 10:26 am to
quote:

The pressure is mounting on Jerome to stop playing politics as Fed Govs jockey for his job

Donald isn’t going to reappoint him regardless, and it doesn’t appear as though he can actually fire him, so I doubt Powell cares all that much.
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29891 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 10:41 am to
quote:


I’ll admit. Between tariffs being rolled out, paused, enforced, paused again, negotiated, 200 deals being done, no deals being announced, pauses being extended…I don’t know if tariffs have ever really even been put into effect at this point.


At this point, the value of the tariffs are secondary to potential supply issues. IMO, we are just now starting to get into the window where supply shortages should start to manifest, if they do at all. You've seen this yo-yoing in shipping. May container numbers were down YoY by 5-8%, but you might see increases in June YoY as companies tried to get more stuff in here after the pause was announced but before anything else is set in stone.

It seems about 50/50 on whether my suppliers will even quote anything right now. I can get numbers on partial containers or small orders from Asia, but I can't get anyone to give me numbers on my big, multi-container loads. To supplement that, I am buying domestically at 40% higher for a vastly inferior product.
This post was edited on 6/23/25 at 10:42 am
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
98058 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 10:45 am to
quote:

Donald isn’t going to reappoint him regardless, and it doesn’t appear as though he can actually fire him, so I doubt Powell cares all that much.


Guess we will find out in the next few months. But we know he cares very much and why hes not cutting
Posted by The Scofflaw
Metairie, LA
Member since Sep 2014
1940 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 10:52 am to
quote:

The pressure is mounting on Jerome to stop playing politics as Fed Govs jockey for his job



This. "We're data dependent, we want to see the data!" [10 months later] "Just because there's no inflation, doesn't mean there won't be in the future!"
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
32883 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 11:32 am to
quote:

Guess we will find out in the next few months. But we know he cares very much and why hes not cutting

In spite on Donald's crying over the subject, asking for a rate cut of "at least 2%" when the rate of inflation is still slightly above the Fed's target rate is silly, and Powell not acquiescing likely isn't personal or political, in my opinion.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
98058 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

In spite on Donald's crying over the subject


Ah the TDS. He has every reason to "cry"

Its been below or at target for months now. Tariffs are not inflationary. Jerome said so himself that changed his mind. Kinda like inflation was tarnsitory then it wasnt

quote:

Powell not acquiescing likely isn't personal or political, in my opinion.


Yeah you are not very bright and everyone knows its personal and political
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
32883 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 2:46 pm to
quote:

Ah the TDS. He has every reason to "cry"

It's TDS to note that Donald is crying about it when even you concede he's crying about it?
quote:

Its been below or at target for months now. Tariffs are not inflationary. Jerome said so himself that changed his mind. Kinda like inflation was tarnsitory then it wasnt

It hasn't been at or below target according to the metrics that the Fed uses. You can not like those metrics, but you can't accuse them of being political because they are doing what they should do based on the metrics they use.
quote:

Yeah you are not very bright and everyone knows its personal and political

Your rampant spelling and grammar errors are adorable, as always.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
98058 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

It's TDS to note that Donald is crying about it when even you concede he's crying about it?


Anything he says you claim hes crying. You have severe TDS

quote:

It hasn't been at or below target according to the metrics that the Fed uses


ah yes the reliable BLS data

quote:

Your rampant spelling and grammar errors are adorable, as always.


Your ability to be wrong about everything combined with your severe TDS is cute. Sad but cute
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
32883 posts
Posted on 6/23/25 at 4:22 pm to
I remember when you said I had TDS for saying that I thought it was likely that Donald would browbeat the Fed about lowering interest rates and would continue blowing out the deficit. As best as I can tell, your definition of TDS is “acknowledges objective reality”
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