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re: Fed Gov Waller explains to the Money Board why rates need to be cut .25 next week
Posted on 7/19/25 at 11:46 am to slackster
Posted on 7/19/25 at 11:46 am to slackster
It’s clear you don’t know how bonds work. When the 10 year dropped to 3.8% in April my portfolio increased in size by 500k due to better values on my bonds. I should have sold them but once again I was persuaded to “hold out a little longer” only to have the 10 year shoot back to to 4.5% and my principal drop 500k again. Now I’m stuck waiting for the 10 year to go back down below 4% so I can sell these shity bonds. I think 2 rate cuts would get us below 4% on the 10 year which would mean my bond values would increase enough to dump them without incurring as big of a loss.
I get they are going to make exactly what I was told. I’m changing my investment strategy for a better return than 3.5-4%. I didn’t fully understand what they were doing at the time and how long I was going to have to hold these bonds as I wasn’t informed before the purchase. 3.5% for 15-20 years is garbage which is why I’m trying to sell them.
ETA….you are underestimating the amount of money I have in bonds. Your post was 100% incorrect. Maybe know your arse from a hole in the ground before you start hurling insults to people you don’t know on a money talk board.
I get they are going to make exactly what I was told. I’m changing my investment strategy for a better return than 3.5-4%. I didn’t fully understand what they were doing at the time and how long I was going to have to hold these bonds as I wasn’t informed before the purchase. 3.5% for 15-20 years is garbage which is why I’m trying to sell them.
ETA….you are underestimating the amount of money I have in bonds. Your post was 100% incorrect. Maybe know your arse from a hole in the ground before you start hurling insults to people you don’t know on a money talk board.
This post was edited on 7/19/25 at 12:24 pm
1
Posted on 7/19/25 at 11:55 am to Fat Bastard
I want to reallocate to more growth which could be as easy as VOO, VTI, qqq etc. problem is, most of my money is tied up in long term bonds I can’t sell until their values go back up. I personally believe if rates are cut, the 10 year will come back down below 4% which results in the value of my bonds going up. I need for the values of them to go up enough to dump them without incurring too big of a loss when I sell.
This post was edited on 7/19/25 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 7/19/25 at 1:37 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
So your position is that he’s incorrect?
I havent seen any tariff impact 8n anything i deal with. Im sure there is tariff impact somewhere that his data shows that would make him correct
I dont really get your line of questioning
quote:
And being you believe we should cut 1%, you believe he’s off by 25 to 50 basis points, correct?
What are you getting at with this? Cut 1% or cut 1.5% all is welcome
Posted on 7/19/25 at 1:38 pm to slackster
quote:
Your entire OP is a case that the economy sucks.
Yes and this is still Bidens economy. Which is why you know what you posted was dumb and why I called you out on it
Posted on 7/19/25 at 1:44 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
I havent seen any tariff impact 8n anything i deal with. Im sure there is tariff impact somewhere that his data shows that would make him correct I dont really get your line of questioning
It sounded like you were contradicting him. If you acknowledge there have been inflationary impacts from tariffs that you simply haven’t been personally acquainted with, that’s different.
quote:
What are you getting at with this? Cut 1% or cut 1.5% all is welcome
You previously stated that you believe a 1% cut is the correct amount, and that Trump advocating for 3% was 2% too high. I’m endeavoring to see if you believe 1.5% is 0.5% too high.
Posted on 7/19/25 at 2:09 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
sounded like you were contradicting him. If you acknowledge there have been inflationary impacts from tariffs that you simply haven’t been personally acquainted with, that’s different.
quote:
Yeah thats what I said
quote:
I’m endeavoring to see if you believe 1.5% is 0.5% too high
No that would be fantastic. I doubt they all agree to go to 3%. It was great to hear Warsh basically explain to everyone on here that the Fed is basically ruled by Powell and that they vote based how he wants. Dude would be a great fed chair or waller/ bessent
Posted on 7/19/25 at 2:41 pm to slackster
quote:
Trump economy must suck.
Because the Fed could justify decreased rates, and is being called out for not doing so?
Given the fact of coincident increase in debt c-of-c, as well as inherent headwinds to economic growth with unnecessarily high FFRs, yours is an odd pretext, isn't it?
Posted on 7/19/25 at 2:41 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Fed Gov Waller explains to the Money Board why rates need to be cut .25 next week
The FOMC doesn't meet "next week."
I surprised Fed Gov Waller and YOU don't know that.
Posted on 7/19/25 at 6:42 pm to Lsu05
quote:
A few rate cuts would hopefully get my values back up so I can sell these POS 15 year 3.5% bonds. Am I the only one in this boat?
Your advisor recommended munis to a new investor and then kept you in minis during this four year run? Adjusted for inflation that is brutal. I would have to assume you are very well off and in your late 50s or 60s for that strategy in this environment the last four years.
Posted on 7/19/25 at 8:20 pm to Lsu05
quote:
It’s clear you don’t know how bonds work. When the 10 year dropped to 3.8% in April my portfolio increased in size by 500k due to better values on my bonds. I should have sold them but once again I was persuaded to “hold out a little longer” only to have the 10 year shoot back to to 4.5% and my principal drop 500k again. Now I’m stuck waiting for the 10 year to go back down below 4% so I can sell these shity bonds. I think 2 rate cuts would get us below 4% on the 10 year which would mean my bond values would increase enough to dump them without incurring as big of a loss.
The Fed cut rates 1% in 2024 and you didn’t sell your bonds when the 10y was down to 3.6% because you don’t know what you’re doing, then the 10y went to 4.7% by end of year. You think the Fed cutting overnight rates will have a material impact on the long end of the curve - that’s your ignorance, not mine.
quote:
I get they are going to make exactly what I was told. I’m changing my investment strategy for a better return than 3.5-4%. I didn’t fully understand what they were doing at the time and how long I was going to have to hold these bonds as I wasn’t informed before the purchase. 3.5% for 15-20 years is garbage which is why I’m trying to sell them. ETA….you are underestimating the amount of money I have in bonds. Your post was 100% incorrect. Maybe know your arse from a hole in the ground before you start hurling insults to people you don’t know on a money talk board.
Your bonds at these prices are probably yielding 5%+ with 3.5% federally tax free, which could be a tax equivalent yield of 7%+. For someone that apparently has $5mm+ in muni bonds, I’m still surprised how little you seem to understand.
ETA- also, no advisor worth a flying frick is just going to drop most or all of your money into munis (which would be required for you to still be down like you said since 2021) unless you suggested you had a very low risk tolerance. Again, that’s on you. Anyone selling all of their munis to pivot to equities is a change in risk tolerance, not because of bad investments.
This post was edited on 7/19/25 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 7/20/25 at 4:42 am to slackster
They'll cut but long term rates will jump.
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