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Lsut81
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Jun 2005
77343 posts
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End of July Key Data Dates

Tuesday - Home Prices/New Home Sales
Thursday - Q2 GDP and Personal Consumption Inflation
Friday - Consumer Sentiment


Which one does the most to the market? The obvious choice is GDP, but does the market already know thats coming and have it somewhat priced in?

Does an above estimate inflation or consumer sentiment move the market more this week?


GEAUXT
USA Fan
Member since Nov 2007
28213 posts
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Just my opinion, but I feel like EVERYONE knows what the Q2 GDP is going to say. My guess is consumer sentiment will be what rocks the boat the most.

Purely guessing.


thelawnwranglers
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
34212 posts

I think earning and guidance for Apple, Microsoft, and Google are bigger deal to,?


Abstract Queso Dip
Member since Mar 2021
5745 posts

While everyone may know what the Q2 gdp says there are a whole lot of talking heads loud and loud ones that seem to be trying to scare us into a worse recession.

I just don't want the fed to overreacting. This situation has its own challenges. A lot of which will have to work itself out on its own. You can't up and change where you are sourcing everything and build new factories overnight. That takes time and debt.


jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
5282 posts

Target and Walmart lowering their revenue forecasts seems like a solid omen


Lsut81
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Jun 2005
77343 posts
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quote:

Target and Walmart lowering their revenue forecasts seems like a solid omen



Didn't walmart proactively do it? I thought I read they don't officially report til mid-Aug, but updated guidance. That seems like writing on the wall.


jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
5282 posts

Yeah.. probably hoping to just lump that bad news in with whatever is coming this week, instead of having two separate 10% down days


thelawnwranglers
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
34212 posts

Smart


Lsut81
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Jun 2005
77343 posts
 Online 

Here's something that wasn't in my OP, but just came out...

quote:

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, dubbing the world’s economic outlook “gloomy and more uncertain.”

The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 3.2% this year, before slowing further to a 2.9% GDP rate in 2023. The revisions mark a downgrade of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, from its April projections.


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21
Sput
Auburn Fan
Member since Mar 2020
5541 posts

quote:

Target and Walmart lowering their revenue forecasts seems like a solid omen


Dollar General doing work


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Lsut81
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Jun 2005
77343 posts
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Housing data has come out...

quote:

Home prices in May were 19.7% higher compared with the same month last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

This marks the second month of slower increases, as the housing market cools due to higher mortgage rates and increasing concern over inflation. In April, the annual gain was 20.6%.

The 10-city composite rose 19% year over year, down from 19.6% in the previous month. The 20-city composite increased 20.5%, down from 21.2% in April.


GEAUXT
USA Fan
Member since Nov 2007
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quote:

Home prices in May were 19.7% higher compared with the same month last year,


That is outrageous


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60
JumpingTheShark
USA Fan
America
Member since Nov 2012
21433 posts
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The Walmart activity seems like a major bellwether to me.


skewbs
US Space Force Fan
Houston
Member since Apr 2008
1562 posts

quote:

The Walmart activity seems like a major bellwether to me.


Been mentioned in several different threads, but yes, I agree. When a budget retailer revises forecasts down then the situation becomes more clearly obvious.

I do wonder how much is already priced in versus how much further we have to fall. Recession coming has been priced in but by how much?

I think the key will be personal consumption numbers. That was the main component that most saying we were NOT going in to a recession were referencing (i.e. the strength of the American consumer). If we see that drop by more than what is expected...


Lsut81
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Jun 2005
77343 posts
 Online 

More info coming out... not official, but surveys. You knew this was happening. Will be interested to see default rates on CCs, Auto/home loans in next month.

quote:

Higher prices have taken a toll.

In an economy that has produced the highest inflation rate since 1981, Americans are struggling to keep up with expenses and are putting less money aside for emergencies or long-term financial goals, several recent studies show.

Nearly 40% of consumers cannot put any money at all into savings, according to a recent analysis of household financial health and readiness by the American Consumer Credit Counseling, while about 19% said they had to reduce their savings rate.


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11
Bard
LSU Fan
Poli Board President-Elect
Member since Oct 2008
45352 posts

quote:

The obvious choice is GDP, but does the market already know thats coming and have it somewhat priced in?


Prices are still reacting to inflation creep. Business will try to keep short-term price increases out of their lines as for as long as possible (in order to remain competitive), but with the ongoing large increases we've been seeing it's becoming less and less possible for them to continue absorbing those increases.

What this means is that while outlooks have some of this priced in (like WalMart's recent change), there's still a bit they are just holding their breaths on while waiting for the other shoe to begin to drop (that primarily being the coming rise in Unemployment due to rising interest rates and the cumulative effect of the price increases we've been seeing over the last year). Except outlooks to get even worse before they start getting better.
This post was edited on 7/26 at 10:08 am


Hmanhunt
Arkansas Fan
Member since Sep 2015
493 posts

This 100% can confirm that WMT is eating quite a bit of the price increases coming from their suppliers. It is a strategy they employed during the 2008 recession to be in the best position to retain customers. It’s a pretty good buying opportunity to buy WMT IMO if dips into the 115 area.


thelawnwranglers
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
34212 posts

It seems like WMT issue a little is they have wrong inventory and will have to move it?


Shankopotomus
USA Fan
Social Distanced
Member since Feb 2009
20732 posts

yeah but they are not alone in that regard, due to supply chain constraints and lofty continued economic expectations lots of retailers may have over-ordered and will be looking to rid themselves of inventory going into fall


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10
buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
34789 posts

quote:

The obvious choice is GDP,
I’m not sure GDP will have much of an impact other than in the immediate short-term, unless it is something completely surprising (either way) that makes the market rethink its expectations of the future.

It also may depend on the specific components, so if it’s like last quarter, and the personal consumer expenditures and gross domestic investment show strong growth, even though GDP was negative, then the market will more likely react favorably regardless of the top-line number as those are probably more important to the market itself.

Of course the opposite could be true, and GDP is positive, but those areas show an unexpectedly large slowdown and/or are negative. In that case, the market might react unfavorably, BUT it might not if it thinks that would slow fed tightening.


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