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Started By
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End of July Key Data Dates
Posted on 7/26/22 at 6:12 am
Posted on 7/26/22 at 6:12 am
Tuesday - Home Prices/New Home Sales
Thursday - Q2 GDP and Personal Consumption Inflation
Friday - Consumer Sentiment
Which one does the most to the market? The obvious choice is GDP, but does the market already know thats coming and have it somewhat priced in?
Does an above estimate inflation or consumer sentiment move the market more this week?
Thursday - Q2 GDP and Personal Consumption Inflation
Friday - Consumer Sentiment
Which one does the most to the market? The obvious choice is GDP, but does the market already know thats coming and have it somewhat priced in?
Does an above estimate inflation or consumer sentiment move the market more this week?
5
Posted on 7/26/22 at 6:56 am to Lsut81
Just my opinion, but I feel like EVERYONE knows what the Q2 GDP is going to say. My guess is consumer sentiment will be what rocks the boat the most.
Purely guessing.
Purely guessing.
Posted on 7/26/22 at 6:57 am to GEAUXT
I think earning and guidance for Apple, Microsoft, and Google are bigger deal to,?
Posted on 7/26/22 at 7:28 am to GEAUXT
While everyone may know what the Q2 gdp says there are a whole lot of talking heads loud and loud ones that seem to be trying to scare us into a worse recession.
I just don't want the fed to overreacting. This situation has its own challenges. A lot of which will have to work itself out on its own. You can't up and change where you are sourcing everything and build new factories overnight. That takes time and debt.
I just don't want the fed to overreacting. This situation has its own challenges. A lot of which will have to work itself out on its own. You can't up and change where you are sourcing everything and build new factories overnight. That takes time and debt.
Posted on 7/26/22 at 7:28 am to GEAUXT
Target and Walmart lowering their revenue forecasts seems like a solid omen
Posted on 7/26/22 at 7:31 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
Target and Walmart lowering their revenue forecasts seems like a solid omen
Didn't walmart proactively do it? I thought I read they don't officially report til mid-Aug, but updated guidance. That seems like writing on the wall.
Posted on 7/26/22 at 7:45 am to Lsut81
Yeah.. probably hoping to just lump that bad news in with whatever is coming this week, instead of having two separate 10% down days
Posted on 7/26/22 at 7:58 am to jmcwhrter
Smart
Posted on 7/26/22 at 8:09 am to thelawnwranglers
Here's something that wasn't in my OP, but just came out...
quote:
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, dubbing the world’s economic outlook “gloomy and more uncertain.”
The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 3.2% this year, before slowing further to a 2.9% GDP rate in 2023. The revisions mark a downgrade of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, from its April projections.
Posted on 7/26/22 at 8:33 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
Target and Walmart lowering their revenue forecasts seems like a solid omen
Dollar General doing work
Posted on 7/26/22 at 8:38 am to Sput
Housing data has come out...
quote:
Home prices in May were 19.7% higher compared with the same month last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
This marks the second month of slower increases, as the housing market cools due to higher mortgage rates and increasing concern over inflation. In April, the annual gain was 20.6%.
The 10-city composite rose 19% year over year, down from 19.6% in the previous month. The 20-city composite increased 20.5%, down from 21.2% in April.
Posted on 7/26/22 at 8:50 am to Lsut81
quote:
Home prices in May were 19.7% higher compared with the same month last year,
That is outrageous
Posted on 7/26/22 at 8:51 am to jmcwhrter
The Walmart activity seems like a major bellwether to me.
Posted on 7/26/22 at 9:05 am to JumpingTheShark
quote:
The Walmart activity seems like a major bellwether to me.
Been mentioned in several different threads, but yes, I agree. When a budget retailer revises forecasts down then the situation becomes more clearly obvious.
I do wonder how much is already priced in versus how much further we have to fall. Recession coming has been priced in but by how much?
I think the key will be personal consumption numbers. That was the main component that most saying we were NOT going in to a recession were referencing (i.e. the strength of the American consumer). If we see that drop by more than what is expected...
Posted on 7/26/22 at 9:19 am to skewbs
More info coming out... not official, but surveys. You knew this was happening. Will be interested to see default rates on CCs, Auto/home loans in next month.
quote:
Higher prices have taken a toll.
In an economy that has produced the highest inflation rate since 1981, Americans are struggling to keep up with expenses and are putting less money aside for emergencies or long-term financial goals, several recent studies show.
Nearly 40% of consumers cannot put any money at all into savings, according to a recent analysis of household financial health and readiness by the American Consumer Credit Counseling, while about 19% said they had to reduce their savings rate.
Posted on 7/26/22 at 10:06 am to Lsut81
quote:
The obvious choice is GDP, but does the market already know thats coming and have it somewhat priced in?
Prices are still reacting to inflation creep. Business will try to keep short-term price increases out of their lines as for as long as possible (in order to remain competitive), but with the ongoing large increases we've been seeing it's becoming less and less possible for them to continue absorbing those increases.
What this means is that while outlooks have some of this priced in (like WalMart's recent change), there's still a bit they are just holding their breaths on while waiting for the other shoe to begin to drop (that primarily being the coming rise in Unemployment due to rising interest rates and the cumulative effect of the price increases we've been seeing over the last year). Except outlooks to get even worse before they start getting better.
This post was edited on 7/26/22 at 10:08 am
Posted on 7/26/22 at 12:25 pm to Bard
This 100% can confirm that WMT is eating quite a bit of the price increases coming from their suppliers. It is a strategy they employed during the 2008 recession to be in the best position to retain customers. It’s a pretty good buying opportunity to buy WMT IMO if dips into the 115 area.
Posted on 7/26/22 at 9:05 pm to Hmanhunt
It seems like WMT issue a little is they have wrong inventory and will have to move it?
Posted on 7/26/22 at 9:14 pm to thelawnwranglers
yeah but they are not alone in that regard, due to supply chain constraints and lofty continued economic expectations lots of retailers may have over-ordered and will be looking to rid themselves of inventory going into fall
Posted on 7/27/22 at 12:58 am to Lsut81
quote:I’m not sure GDP will have much of an impact other than in the immediate short-term, unless it is something completely surprising (either way) that makes the market rethink its expectations of the future.
The obvious choice is GDP,
It also may depend on the specific components, so if it’s like last quarter, and the personal consumer expenditures and gross domestic investment show strong growth, even though GDP was negative, then the market will more likely react favorably regardless of the top-line number as those are probably more important to the market itself.
Of course the opposite could be true, and GDP is positive, but those areas show an unexpectedly large slowdown and/or are negative. In that case, the market might react unfavorably, BUT it might not if it thinks that would slow fed tightening.
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