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re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Thib-a-doe Tiger 
on 12/4/18 at 8:54 pm to LSURussian
on 12/4/18 at 8:54 pm to LSURussianWhat happened baw? I’m catching up on shows
ETA: forgot what tomorrow is
ETA: forgot what tomorrow is
This post was edited on 12/4 at 8:56 pm
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by LSUcam7 on 12/4/18 at 9:00 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
bought a triple levered inverse index etf today based on that poster predicting the crash
2% of the time it works every time.
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by TigersFan64 on 12/5/18 at 12:00 am to LSURussian
on 12/5/18 at 12:00 am to LSURussianThe yield curve inversion preceeded the Great Recession and other previous downturns in financial markets. We are just about in another situation where we have an inverted yield curve. Many economists put a lot of stock in it as a predictor of market downturns.
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by slackster 
on 12/5/18 at 8:26 am to TigersFan64
on 12/5/18 at 8:26 am to TigersFan64quote:
The yield curve inversion preceeded the Great Recession and other previous downturns in financial markets.
True, but that downturn was anywhere from 17-31 months out after inversion. That's a substantial amount of time to still make money post yield curve inversion, and it's more than a year gap you could be too early/late.
As a tool to use regarding investment decisions, it's shoddy at best.
quote:
Not a timing indicator, it’s a condition indicator.
Even still, what good is a condition indicator with no predictive power?
10y minus 3-month spreads are at 60 basis points. The last 3 times they fell from 150 basis points to 60, the market rallied 154% cumulatively (16.9% annualized), 32% cumulatively (8.5% annualized), and 26.5% cumulatively (11.5% annualized) from breaking that support level to actual recession.
Yield inversion is essentially hogwash as far as I'm concerned. It's a tiny part of a much larger dynamic.
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Thib-a-doe Tiger on 12/5/18 at 10:51 am to slackster
on 12/5/18 at 10:51 am to slacksterquote:
Yield inversion is essentially hogwash as far as I'm concerned. It's a tiny part of a much larger dynamic.
I think it means even less when you consider all the instantaneous information that markets are able to react to now. Movements in the yield curve happen way more quickly than they did 20,30,80 years ago
2 percent daily movements in the market are the new norm
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Hussss 
on 12/5/18 at 1:22 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
on 12/5/18 at 1:22 pm to Thib-a-doe TigerBaby boomers have the majority of the money out in the economy (they had plenty of disposable income because their cost of living was so low). They don't have to spend (velocity has slowed to a crawl) like younger people do and are net sellers of stocks for the forseeable future. Liquidity in these markets are at all time lows. We have to ask ourselves: where will the net buyers come from? If central banks don't start buying stocks, we will collapse.
Personally, I am buying volatility on any weakness.
Good luck everyone
Personally, I am buying volatility on any weakness.
Good luck everyone
This post was edited on 12/5 at 1:27 pm
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Shepherd88 on 12/5/18 at 2:04 pm to Hussss
quote:
If central banks don't start buying stocks, we will collapse.
That’s hilarious
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Shankopotomus 
on 12/5/18 at 2:07 pm to Shepherd88
on 12/5/18 at 2:07 pm to Shepherd88I do think you'll see another round of QE to inflate the system once more ... the question is will Trump's rhetoric about The Fed actually have an impact on them in terms of acting, i.e. will they hold off during election cycle to allow down economy and hurt Trump's re election....
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Thib-a-doe Tiger on 12/5/18 at 2:30 pm to Hussss
on 12/5/18 at 2:30 pm to Hussssquote:
They don't have to spend (velocity has slowed to a crawl) like younger people do and are net sellers of stocks for the forseeable future. Liquidity in these markets are at all time lows.
Wut
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Shepherd88 on 12/5/18 at 2:35 pm to Shankopotomus
Inflate what system? There is no inflation.
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Hussss on 12/5/18 at 2:58 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
on 12/5/18 at 2:58 pm to Thib-a-doe TigerDemographics are a HUGE problem not just here but globally.
People just aren’t having children like they used to. Just can’t afford it.
It takes more and more people borrowing and spending to keep the ponzi going. This is the exact reason that the banking system wants open borders which equal more debt slaves to keep it all going. Every country fighting over crumbs of a rapidly shrinking pie.
People just aren’t having children like they used to. Just can’t afford it.
It takes more and more people borrowing and spending to keep the ponzi going. This is the exact reason that the banking system wants open borders which equal more debt slaves to keep it all going. Every country fighting over crumbs of a rapidly shrinking pie.
This post was edited on 12/5 at 3:05 pm
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Thib-a-doe Tiger on 12/5/18 at 3:14 pm to Hussss
on 12/5/18 at 3:14 pm to HussssHow can we have the largest demographic be net sellers, and at the same time have a liquidity problem? Someone is obviously buying
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Hussss on 12/5/18 at 3:18 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
on 12/5/18 at 3:18 pm to Thib-a-doe TigerPRogrammed algos are buying (until they aren’t and bids dry up). They can and will pull bids quickly when we get a 2008 type volatility spike which is coming very soon.
This is what happens when the Fed scared out short sellers for so long.
You need them to buy to cover (liquidity for sellers wanting out).
Most of the holdings are in passive investment vehicles like ETFs.
You will see the biggest flash crash you can imagine.
This is what happens when the Fed scared out short sellers for so long.
You need them to buy to cover (liquidity for sellers wanting out).
Most of the holdings are in passive investment vehicles like ETFs.
You will see the biggest flash crash you can imagine.
This post was edited on 12/5 at 3:49 pm
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Shepherd88 on 12/5/18 at 3:51 pm to Hussss
The amount of volume that’s traded in the ETF’s secondary market is insane. They likely won’t ever have to touch the primary market, so liquidity is definitely not an issue.
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by LSURussian on 12/5/18 at 3:53 pm to Hussss
on 12/5/18 at 3:53 pm to Hussssquote:Then I guess we’re going to collapse because the Federal Reserve, by law, cannot buy stocks. It can buy corporate bonds but not equities.
If central banks don't start buying stocks, we will collapse.
re: Dow down 700 ptsPosted by Hussss on 12/5/18 at 3:54 pm to Shepherd88
on 12/5/18 at 3:54 pm to Shepherd88The Fed is withdrawing (quantitative tightening) 60B a month.
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