Posted by
Message
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
110102 posts
 Online 

re: Dow down 700 pts
quote:

Unfortunately, I think it may be time to panic. Signs are looking more and more like a HUGE selloff is coming over the next six months.
That's #2. One to go.....

ETA: 11/20/18
This post was edited on 12/4 at 3:35 pm


Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2329 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
What signs?

Corporate balance sheets are strong.
Consumer balance sheets are strong.
And banks are over capitalized.


iAmBatman
USA Fan
The Batcave
Member since Mar 2011
8047 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
He's just got a feeling, maaaaaan


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
60
jimbeam
USA Fan
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
50248 posts
 Online 

re: Dow down 700 pts
I was waiting on that let me know when it’s time


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
LSUcam7
SRB FL
Member since Sep 2016
1387 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
A concern, though more medium-to-long term, is that roughly 51% of corporate debt (lowest investment grade debt) is BBB rated.

Higher costs of capital will put stress on poorly managed companies with negative free cash who can’t afford to tap the debt markets and credit ratings could deteriorate as early as 2019.

Should take time for a story like that to play out because rates are still relatively low.

With that said, AAPL is sitting on 200-250B of cash on hand. I think they’ll be just fine.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
20
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
50542 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
quote:

The volatility in the market indexes is so dumb lately. These swings in prices shouldn't be happening on such a regular basis 2-3% moves in the total US market in a day should not become any sort of 'norm' and it's happened multiple times in the last couple months.

Also, the Dow is irrelevant and I wish it would stop being referenced. Just use the S&P500.


It's really not that ridiculous. There have been 15 days where the S&P has moved more than 2 standard deviations this year. You would expect about 12 days per year like that.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
30
TigersFan64
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2014
4057 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
The inverted yield curve for one. When short term rates are higher than long-term rates as they've recently been on bond yields, that is a bad sign. Also, worldwide economic growth is expected to slow down. And Trump's trade war with China is making goods more expensive, thus cutting into future economic growth.
This post was edited on 12/4 at 5:29 pm


TigersFan64
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2014
4057 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
And just how long do you think this current bull market we've been in for ten years is supposed to last, anyway? It's long overdue for a crash. As bull markets go, this one is getting long in the tooth.


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
50542 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
quote:

And just how long do you think this current bull market we've been in for ten years is supposed to last, anyway? It's long overdue for a crash. As bull markets go, this one is getting long in the tooth.


Something has to actually happen though. Bull runs don't just end for the hell of it.

As for the inverted yield curve, or threat thereof, it says more about the bubble in long term bond prices than anything else IMO.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
21
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
110102 posts
 Online 

re: Dow down 700 pts
quote:

When short term rates are higher than long-term rates as they've recently been on bond yields
That's not quite accurate.

The 2 year yield is slightly higher than the 5 year yield....by 9 thousandths of a percent as I type this.

The 10 year and the 30 year are both higher than the 2 and 5 year yields.


TD SponsorTD Fan
USA
Member since 2001
Thank you for supporting our sponsors
Advertisement
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
50542 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
quote:

The 10 year and the 30 year are both higher than the 2 and 5 year yields.


Depending on who you ask 10y-3m is the place to look, and even then, it's had spreads narrower than this one that were followed by 24+ months of economic growth.
This post was edited on 12/4 at 5:58 pm


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
10
Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2329 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
Inverted yield curves don’t cause a recession.

So there could be a strong argument the 10 yr treasury is in a bubble. LINK
This post was edited on 12/4 at 6:11 pm


LSUtoOmaha
LSU Fan
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
24504 posts
 Online 

re: Dow down 700 pts
quote:

The 10 year and the 30 year are both higher than the 2 and 5 year yields.



That’s good


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
kywildcatfanone
Kentucky Fan
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
54959 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
This is really making me sad. I'm under 5 to retirement. I want it to go up and up and up and up and up.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
110102 posts
 Online 

re: Dow down 700 pts
quote:

Inverted yield curves don’t cause a recession.
Nobody is saying they do.

At least I’m not saying they do.....not anymore than a mirror causes a fat person to be fat. The mirror justs reflects the fat person standing in front of it.

The inverted yield curve reflects the expectations of bond investors. When enough bond investors believe an economic slowdown is approaching, which almost always results in a drop in bond yields when the slowdown happens, those investors are willing to accept lower yields further out the curve.


LSUcam7
SRB FL
Member since Sep 2016
1387 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
And it will.

Keep your risk exposure in check. Don’t sell low but always buy low. Be patient and you’ll be fine if you saved enough dough in your working years and you don’t burn too much of it as you go.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
10
LSUcam7
SRB FL
Member since Sep 2016
1387 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
quote:

not anymore than a mirror causes a fat person to be fat. The mirror justs reflects the fat person standing in front of it.




Well said.


Thib-a-doe Tiger
LSU Fan
LaTour and in BRgetthenet's head
Member since Nov 2012
27335 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
I bought a triple levered inverse index etf today based on that poster predicting the crash. I’m going to be rolling in dough while you suckers cry your S&P 500 scented tears
This post was edited on 12/4 at 8:03 pm


Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2329 posts

re: Dow down 700 pts
Yea I know you understand it.. but I was directing that post to the poster who didn’t understand it lol.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
110102 posts
 Online 

re: Dow down 700 pts
The stock market won’t fall tomorrow!


Jump to page
Page 1 2 3 4 5 ... 13
Jump to page
first pageprev pagePage 2 of 13next pagelast page

Back to top

logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram