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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 11/22/24 at 1:37 pm to
Posted by Houstiger
Houston
Member since Aug 2007
418 posts
Posted on 11/22/24 at 1:37 pm to
We have so many catalysts. Dozens.
Posted by SwampCollie
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2018
282 posts
Posted on 11/22/24 at 1:48 pm to
quote:

Koch sold 100% of theirs


Interesting.

Wonder if putting their guy in as CEO & licensing their tech to SLI created conflicts of intersest?

Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/22/24 at 3:13 pm to
Yahoo and Fintel



Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/22/24 at 3:24 pm to
A few months ago they were hoping to announce East Texas resource definition by the end of this year, now in yesterday's call they said they hope they can have it by the end of 2025.

They said yesterday that they've started to have more formal offtake talks at a conference last week. Said not to expect announcement of non-binding offtake agreements, so that tells us that offtake will not be announced before the royalty is decided (since a binding offtake cannot happen before the royalty). Again, they're now hopeful that a royalty can be reached by mid next year. (This was in response to "~At which point does the royalty stalemate start affecting project timelines?" suggesting to expect a project delay if the royalty isn't reached by mid next year)

Also said yesterday that they're optimistic about finalizing the $225M grant by the end of this year, but that if they don't get that done by inauguration day then expect it to take "quarters."

I kept my core position but sold all of the "short term excitement" shares from the top. I'm willing to miss whatever bump might come from finalizing the grant this year if they manage to do so. Don't see any other catalysts in the near term myself
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
60608 posts
Posted on 11/23/24 at 4:00 pm to
I just read through a bunch of this thread.
What are the odds this company goes bankrupt in the next two years vs makes some headway?
I'm giving a little thought into putting some play money into this.
Posted by GrizzlyAlloy
Member since Aug 2020
2581 posts
Posted on 11/23/24 at 5:17 pm to
55/45 bankruptcy
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
167 posts
Posted on 11/23/24 at 6:48 pm to
Really?
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
2886 posts
Posted on 11/24/24 at 8:33 am to
Koch selling might be the canary test for me.... If we get back into the 2's for whatever reason I'm going to lighten up.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/24/24 at 8:49 pm to
I saw that Koch did some restructuring this year and went from Koch Industries Inc to Koch Industries LLC. Not sure if this explains the apparent closing of Koch's SLI position or not, but I can't make sense of what I've seen on the subject other than no version of Koch shows up under Institutional Holders anymore. Anyone else?

Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
60608 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 10:29 am to
Well I bit the bullet and bought some of this garbage. First time ever buying a penny stock
This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 9:14 am
Posted by GrizzlyAlloy
Member since Aug 2020
2581 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 11:01 am to
quote:

Well I bit the bullet and bought some of this garbage. First time every buying a penny stock


Well, you fricked up.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
60608 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 11:08 am to
LOL
Thanks for the kind words.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28912 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 12:28 pm to
quote:

I saw that Koch did some restructuring this year and went from Koch Industries Inc to Koch Industries LLC. Not sure if this explains the apparent closing of Koch's SLI position or not, but I can't make sense of what I've seen on the subject other than no version of Koch shows up under Institutional Holders anymore. Anyone else?


Good question. I've heard nothing of Koch closing their position. It's been plenty of time for the news to become public.
Posted by ColoradoAg03
Denver, CO
Member since Oct 2012
6418 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 9:44 pm to
Oxy has entered the chat…..

LINK

quote:

Occidental Petroleum has become the latest oil and gas player to stake out acreage in the emerging lithium play in the US state of Arkansas, joining rivals such as Exxon Mobil and Equinor in the pursuit of extracting the valuable battery metal from brines.

“All we’ve done is get some leases right now,” Oxy CEO Vicki Hollub told Energy Intelligence on the sidelines of the Energy Intelligence Forum in London.
This post was edited on 11/25/24 at 9:46 pm
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
2886 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 9:46 pm to
IOW, right race, wrong horse.
Posted by ColoradoAg03
Denver, CO
Member since Oct 2012
6418 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 9:51 pm to
I don’t know, the delay in royalty decision isn’t just holding up the SLI partnership. They're further along than new players in the game.
Posted by SwampCollie
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2018
282 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:11 am to
quote:

I've heard nothing of Koch closing their position. It's been plenty of time for the news to become public.


They surely aren't listed on institutional holders.... that amount would be #1 by $'s.

Here's my theory:
-Koch came in, loved the brine leases and concept, invested $100M.
-After looking under the hood they decide to develop their own tech, which outperforms SLI's.
-Koch licenses SLI their "Li-ProTM Lithium Selective Sorption" tech and exits their investment at a loss

This sequence accomplishes a number of things from Koch POV:
1) Taking Capital Loss on their initial investment to perhaps offset gains elsewhere
2) Licensing is mailbox money and scales to and through growing number of projects and licensee's. Don't need to own the brine or leases if you own the process.
3) Koch bean counters see Capital investment losses as cost of entry into this tech/space ($80M hit is peanuts) and as favorable CAPEX vs co-funding and amortizing a $1B build out.

This sceario captures most if not more upside w/ minimal risk/exposure/complexity vs putting all their eggs and $ in SLI's basket.



Alternative theory:
-After developing their own tech and licensing plans an ownership stake in one licensee creates potential conflict of interst - or perception of one

Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
15181 posts
Posted on 11/26/24 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

Well I bit the bullet and bought some of this garbage. First time ever buying a penny stock

Enjoy this bag. While the rest of the market has rocketed this has done nothing.
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
167 posts
Posted on 12/3/24 at 9:58 am to
When is next royalty hearing?
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 12/3/24 at 10:16 am to
Next hearing is December 10 but the royalty isn’t on the agenda as of now.
They’re hopeful to have it resolved by mid 2025, which is when the project would start getting pushed back because of it.
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