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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:19 pm to
Posted by astonvilla
New Jersey
Member since Dec 2005
3287 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:19 pm to
is this good or bad?
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4799 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:24 pm to
I was under the impression that SLI wanted to give 1.8% or whatever royalty of “raw” lithium, meaning raw brine. If I’m understanding this correctly, the AOGC wants them to settle at 2.5% of “finished” refined lithium?

If that’s the case then they’re worlds apart on this.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:41 pm to
I would just clarify that the 2.5% of end product idea came from one commissioner and wasn't presented as the position of the whole commission
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28912 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

I would just clarify that the 2.5% of end product idea came from one commissioner and wasn't presented as the position of the whole commission

Then we should do the same to their oil production.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:03 pm to
Man a commissioner made a good point today about how nobody cares about the profit margins of oil producers. It's a flat 12.5% (min) royalty no matter if the producer is going bankrupt or is thriving. Gotta think that if there was a "wellhead value" of lithium the royalty would have been long decided and no one would be holding their breath for Standard and co's economic info
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
167 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:20 pm to
I actually felt like before the lunch break it was going to be approved! Must have been one heck of a lunch meeting!
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3537 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 8:18 am to
Probably gonna be a rough few days/weeks here with the bad news coming out of the royalties hearing and Trump back in the White House.

Long term I think we'll see net benefit from Trump wanting to shore up domestic supply chains - US needs more lithium production.

But short term, O&G going to crush lithium futures, and uncertainty around the stability of these DOE grants could really weigh on SLI.

Don't think we're going to like the look of things over the near future.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 8:40 am to
They were asked last earnings if the grant is at risk and David Park said the DoE was trying to finalize grants by December. So hopefully that can work out without having a royalty in place.

Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3537 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 8:58 am to
Wine Mixer Status:

{Prison Toilet}
Franzia
Duckhorn
fricking Catalina
Posted by go ta hell ole miss
Member since Jan 2007
14026 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 9:31 am to
I have not bought more SLI in years, but am adding to my position this morning. I just sold Reddit and MSTR, which long term I am about as bullish on those as I can be (and will likely be adding back to those positions in 30 days) to free up some cash.

The lithium trade is overdone to the downside this morning and the euphoria in some of the other stocks is also overdone IMO. But the hearing and now Trump are not great for SLi stockholders.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28912 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 12:10 pm to
Trump is actually good for SLI as he is very much for domestic production of lithium and other needed minerals, resources. He was very much in favor of tax breaks for domestic producers and tariffs on imports. He's not anti-environment and actually knows about SLI and the fact that DLE from these brines are the greenest way to obtain lithium.

Our Governor knows him pretty well. Trump is good for Arkansas.
Posted by AUHighPlainsDrifter
South Carolina
Member since Sep 2017
3179 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 3:23 pm to
quote:


Don't think we're going to like the look of things over the near future.


Good thing we're a bunch of diamond handed MFers!
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
167 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 2:46 pm to
What are chances of nothing happening with royalty till 2025 with holidays coming up?
Posted by ynlvr
Rocket City
Member since Feb 2009
5039 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 3:25 pm to
Given the history I’d give it greater than 50% we get nothing.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 3:51 pm to
A royalty recap off the top of my head

-Application heard Sep23, continued to Dec23
-Not enough info in Dec23, pushed to Jan24
-Jan24 hearing cancelled
-Application to be heard in April
-Application withdrawn by applicants
-Joint application filed, to be heard Sep24
-Legal issues, need pre-hearing Oct24
-Pre-hearing Oct24, all set for Nov24 hearing
-Application denied Nov24 for applicants still not sharing info requested Dec23, 11 months ago

One more scheduled hearing this year, on Dec 10. Make what you want with that information; in my mind there’s no royalty on the horizon.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28912 posts
Posted on 11/8/24 at 4:11 pm to
I have no clue. One of the commissioners I know felt like they'd most likely have it settled by end of July and for sure by now. I don't think they anticipated the dumbassery on the landowners side. I hope they realize that they are agents of both sides and there are far more shareholders in south Arkansas than landowners and they are getting pissed. Imagine owning timber or oil wells in an area where thousands of people lost their asses, jobs or potential jobs due to your inability to negotiate a reasonable offer. I wouldn't want to be them.

The two I know well thought the 3.5% on top of existing brine royalties were reasonable. I think the landowners want more like 6.5% from what I can gather. Koch and XOM will twist some balls, I don't think some of these people realize what companies like this can and will do when they really want something. I say 3.5% and revisit things in 10 years. There's no real data to draw from. Even a bigger royalty isn't going to make any landowner rich, but too big makes it less competitive to hard rock mining. This ain't the only lithium in the world.
This post was edited on 11/8/24 at 4:16 pm
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/8/24 at 4:47 pm to
The issue I’m seeing for Standard is they seem to have no leverage whatsoever. Let me elaborate

Standard: We’ll move to Texas.
Rebuttal: Good luck, Texas has no equivalent of the Arkansas Brine Act. You can’t even reinject brine there. By the way, who owns brine minerals in Texas, the landowner or mineral owner? And you haven’t yet defined your Texas resource publicly? Doesn’t that come like years before engineering/FID? lol see you at the next Arkansas hearing.

Standard: We’ll move to another formation altogether.
Rebuttal: Interesting, you’ve repeatedly told your investors that the resource dictates the technology and that you don’t build the technology and deploy it across different formations. If that was true, I’m sorry that you wasted 4 years pilot testing technology that is tailored to Smackover brine. Also aren’t you pretty far along on your engineering flow sheet tailored to Smackover brine? And like a week ago announced a technology license with Koch for your Arkansas project? lol see you at the next Arkansas hearing.

Standard: Nothing’s forcing us to stay in Arkansas.
Rebuttal: You’re right. Nothing’s forcing you to receive the $225M grant that’s attached to your Arkansas project. lol see you at the next Arkansas hearing.

No leverage=no way to bluff=commission can take its time

(Open to correction)
This post was edited on 11/8/24 at 5:06 pm
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28912 posts
Posted on 11/8/24 at 4:50 pm to
True.
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
2886 posts
Posted on 11/8/24 at 5:21 pm to
How are the saltwater disposal wells all over The Eagle Ford formation different than Brine reinjection?
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 11/8/24 at 5:41 pm to
Not sure, I’m referring to what Robinson and Mintak told Joe Lowry a few months ago about Texas being far behind Arkansas re brine disposal. Gonna relisten to make sure
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